“The Big Ten Breakdown, Vol. II” is a column by Terence Holton about the new look of college football.
The Pac-12 has officially come and gone. However, even greater changes to the college football world are upon us. While for the past nine years we have enjoyed a four-team College Football Playoff, next season there will be 12 teams duking it out for the coveted crown of national champions.
So, what would that look like in this current season?
Because conference championship week is this upcoming weekend, I will also be adding in my predictions to who will win their respective conference titles, as well as foretelling who I believe would deserve to make it in this 12-team playoff scenario.
The first-round byes:
In this new 12-team setting, the top four ranked Power Four conference champions will receive a first-round bye. This season, I believe the top four ranked in order will be: No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Oregon and No. 4 Texas.
The top four are all damn good football teams. Some may ask why Washington does not have the bye over Oregon, as earlier this year the Huskies beat the Ducks. Bluntly, Washington has looked bad, while Oregon has been rolling. Washington is squeaking by unranked opponents, while the Ducks are clobbering teams like Utah and Oregon State, two teams the Huskies narrowly escaped.
Vegas agrees with my Oregon prediction, as the Ducks are favored by 9.5 points heading into Friday’s game.
As for the other three, Texas gets in because it beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa and are Big-12 champs, but Georgia and Michigan … They are far and away the best teams in the country. I have praised Oregon this year, but this season is really Georgia and Michigan’s to lose — both look incredibly dominant.
First-round home field advantage:
This is where this starts to get a bit more tricky and hard to predict.
In order, the next four teams should be: No. 5 Ohio State, No. 6 Washington, No. 7 Florida State and No. 8 Alabama.
Both Washington and Florida State head into this weekend undefeated; however, I believe they will both lose their conference championship games. Without senior quarterback Jordan Travis, the Seminoles look lost. Florida State’s defense is great, but it barely edged out the disappointing Florida Gators.
I already explained my thinking about Washington, but only one loss to No. 3 Oregon means it deserves the No. 6 seed.
Ohio State has an argument to make the four-team playoff this season, and I believe it 100% deserves to be the top home-field advantage squad. Frankly, the reason they lost to Michigan is because sophomore quarterback Kyle McCord stinks — in my opinion. If this current team had CJ Stroud, it would have beaten Michigan.
Alabama is a tricky one, because they will have two losses. However, those losses will have been to Georgia and Texas. I will never count out a Nick Saban-led Alabama Crimson Tide. As long as that man is coaching, Alabama has the ability to beat anyone. The Crimson Tide can still compete with the best of the best and therefore still deserve home field advantage in the first round.
The Underdogs:
These four teams will be playing on the road for the first-round matchup, but they’re why the playoff expansion is so great. The three best available Power Five teams will make it, and then the fun part: the best overall Group of Five team will be in.
This is how I believe the rankings should go for the best available now: No. 9 Missouri, No. 10 Arizona, No. 11 Louisville and No. 12 Tulane.
Sadly, the team that caused the Trojans collapse during the Sugar Bowl last season in Tulane makes it, but it is great that Group of Five teams get a chance to shake things up.
Missouri is a great team. The Tigers are 10-2 with dominant wins over Tennessee and a close loss to Georgia. Missouri has arguably the second-best wide receiver in college football in sophomore Luther Burden III, coupled with a phenomenal running back in senior Cody Schrader. The Tigers could easily shake things up.
I think Arizona is a top 10 team in the country. Redshirt freshman quarterback Noah Fifita took over halfway through the season and blew the college football world away. Head coach Jedd Fisch has done a masterful job with a team that went 1-11 two years ago, but the Wildcats are now sitting at 9-3 and playing some really fun football.
Louisville will deserve to be in after beating undefeated Florida State. The Cardinals have been one of the biggest surprises of the seasons and have looked fantastic, therefore deserving to be ranked No. 11.
With all that being said, here’s what the exact matchups would look like.
No. 1 Georgia -Bye- Plays winner of 8/9 matchup
No. 2 Michigan -Bye- Plays winner of 7/10 matchup
No. 3 Oregon -Bye- Plays winner of 6/11 matchup
No. 4 Texas -Bye- Plays winner of 5/12 matchup
No. 5 Ohio State vs No. 12 Tulane
No. 6 Washington vs No. 11 Louisville
No. 7 Florida State vs No. 10 Arizona
No. 8 Alabama vs No. 9 Missouri
The 12-team playoff truly cannot come quick enough, and I think other Trojan fans should feel the same way, as it will be even easier for USC to make their first playoff appearance.
“The Big Ten Breakdown, Vol. II” runs every other Tuesday.