“Pac-12 Power Rankings” is a column by Will Camardella ranking the Pac-12 football teams on a week-to-week basis.
In the Conference of Champions’ final season, the only thing we should have expected was the unexpected. Entering the year, everyone wanted to talk about Caleb Williams repeating as the Heisman Trophy winner and USC making a run at a National Championship. Entering Conference Championship weekend, two Pac-12 quarterbacks sit in Heisman contention, with each of their teams one win away from the conference’s first College Football Playoff appearance since 2016. Neither of those quarterbacks are Caleb Williams.
Few would have expected that Arizona, a team that lost its starting quarterback to injury early in the year and its top 2022 pass catcher to the transfer portal, would go from a 5-7 team to a team one win away from the Pac-12 Championship Game. Who would have thought that Cal, a program based in Northern California that will soon be playing in the Atlantic Coast Conference, would win three games in a row to clinch bowl eligibility? After being the talk of college football in the non-conference portion of the season, I doubt many believed Colorado would finish with the worst conference record in the Pac-12.
Yet, all of those things happened in what turned out to be an extraordinarily fun 2023 season, assuming you are not a Trojan fan. For my rankings this week, knowing that 10 of these 12 teams will be shipping off to new conferences in less than a year, I focused on what each team’s prospects in their new homes would look like while putting a bow on 2023. Of course, that’s after one last look at Oregon and Washington, who are getting ready to clash in an epic top-five matchup with the Pac-12′s final championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line. One last time, let’s get into the rankings.
1. Oregon Ducks (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 1
Black Friday was business as usual for Oregon in a 31-7 rout of its in-state rival to close out the regular season. Head coach Dan Lanning has proven to be one of the best motivators in college football, as there is never a week where his team is not ready to go. Through the 12-week regular season, the Ducks have played just two one-possession games: one in a non-conference road game in Texas and the other on the road against one of the four undefeated teams in college football. Oregon State has been one of the best teams in the conference all season long, yet Oregon’s defense completely stifled the Beavers from the opening kickoff.
Typically in big games, Oregon State has relied on big plays from its rushing attack to have success. Facing the Ducks, the Beavers had a total of 53 rushing yards for the entire game, averaging 2.2 yards per carry on the night. Oregon State has also played some of the best defense in the Pac-12, but that did not prevent Bo Nix from having a 367-yard passing day.
I have discussed in previous weeks how fluky I felt the Ducks’ mid-season loss to Washington was, as justification for why I have them ranked above the undefeated Huskies. This weekend’s game serves as another example of Oregon boat racing an opponent that Washington really struggled with. Even in bad weather, the Beavers moved the ball against the Huskies’ defense in a way it just could not on a clear day in Eugene. The Ducks remain the most complete team in the conference, and they will prove that when they take down Washington this Friday in Vegas.
2. Washington Huskies (12-0, 9-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 2
Washington finished an incredibly impressive feat on Saturday afternoon with a narrow win over Washington State. In the best top-to-bottom Pac-12 in the College Football Playoff era, the Huskies finished the regular season with an unblemished record and are one win away from their first playoff appearance since 2016. There are only three other undefeated teams in the sport as of now, and, despite their place in the rankings and the criticisms I am about to make of them, they deserve all the credit in the world for their record.
On the other hand, I would have liked to see Washington handle a Washington State team that had lost six of its last seven games going in a little more decisively. At the end of the day, the Huskies needed a gutsy fourth-down jet sweep to convert and a backbreaking roughing the passer call to go their way in order to win that game in regulation. Michael Penix Jr. had more than 100 fewer passing yards than Cam Ward, and Ja’Lynn Polk did not have a single reception. To again use the common opponent test, the Cougars lost to Oregon by two touchdowns.
Washington, despite being ranked third in the nation, is widely expected to lose in the Pac-12 Championship, with the Ducks favored by multiple scores. This might be the most advantageous position for Kalen DeBoer’s team to be in; they have a knack for pulling out close games against good opponents and now have all the motivation they need to play their ‘A’ game. While recognizing this, some of the Huskies’ performances in the back half of the schedule keep me from calling them the best team the conference has to offer.
3. Arizona Wildcats (9-3, 7-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 3
In the past two weeks of the season, as more and more teams have been eliminated from Pac-12 Championship Game contention, we have seen examples of teams playing demoralized without anything to play for. This certainly could have been the case with Arizona, who found out less than 24 hours before their game against Arizona State that Oregon had locked up the final spot. Instead, the Wildcats put up their biggest offensive numbers of the season by embarrassing the Sun Devils on the road 59-23.
Noah Fifita’s numbers on Saturday afternoon looked as if he was playing NCAA Football 14 on rookie mode. He threw for 527 yards and five touchdowns on 41 passes, for a whopping 12.1 yards per attempt. Even more amazingly, 423 of those passing yards were hauled in by just two receivers, Tetaioa McMillan and Jacob Cowing. It has become clear that Jedd Fisch has been able to get the most out of his skill position players in his time in Tucson, a major reason why Arizona is reportedly trying to work out a contract extension.
Fisch inherited a winless football team in 2021 and got the Wildcats to within one game of a Pac-12 Championship Game appearance in just three seasons. He is the first coach to lead Arizona to a nine-win season since 2014. Assuming his contract extension gets done and Fifita remains in the fold, the Wildcats are one of the teams in the conference that has every ability to build off its 2023 success and sustain a winning program for years to come.
4. Oregon State Beavers (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12) | Last Week: 4
Oregon State’s final regular season game was undoubtedly its worst effort of the year. In the Beavers’ rivalry matchup, they lost by three times as many points as their other three losses combined.
Oregon State was obviously running into a bit of a buzzsaw on Friday night: Oregon was playing to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship game and to stay alive in the CFP race. On the other hand, the Beavers had been eliminated from conference championship contention the week prior. Still, like I had said about USC a week ago, teams should be able to get up for their biggest rivalry game regardless of postseason implications, and OSU was just not ready to play. The usually stingy Beaver defense allowed Bo Nix and the Duck passing attack to do whatever they wanted over the weekend.
I chose not to drop Oregon State despite this game because of how highly I think of Oregon, as well as my belief that effort played a major role in determining the final score. Overall, 2023 was a very successful season for the Beavers that will leave many great memories for the fanbase. However, with the announcement of Jonathan Smith taking the head coaching job at Michigan State, the program is now left without a conference or a head coach. While this season may have been a fun one, it is hard to see how it can lead to long-term program success in Corvallis.
5. Utah Utes (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12) | Last Week: 5
Utah closed out an up-and-down 2023 with a game that, in many ways, embodied its season as a whole. The Utes defeated Colorado in Salt Lake City in a game where they threw a grand total of ten passes and ran the ball 53 times. Utah has not been a potent passing offense all season without Cam Rising in the fold, but the situation became even more dire when Bryson Barnes missed the game due to injury, requiring Luke Bottari to step in.
Bottari did not attempt a pass until the second quarter and only had three completions at halftime, yet the Utes never trailed in the game. The former fifth-stringer did contribute with a pair of rushing touchdowns. Utah played excellent defense against the Buffaloes’ backup quarterback while completely shutting down the Colorado running game, paving the way for the win.
The Utes’ offensive limitations made their season script fairly predictable. Against flawed opponents, they could impose their physicality and grind out tight victories. Against the elite teams in this conference, their style of play could not make up for the difference in talent. Hence, their four losses came to the top four teams in the Pac-12 standings as well as my rankings. Once Cam Rising returns in 2024, or Utah finds another quarterback in the transfer portal, that talent gap will close, and the team will be ready to be a major factor in the Big 12.
6. Cal Golden Bears (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12) | Last Week: 8
With the exception of Arizona, there was no team in this conference I underestimated more throughout 2023 than Cal. I had them in my bottom three for most of the season, as I did not see how a team that is usually an afterthought could compete in the best conference in college football. In the final regular season game in Pac-12 history, the Golden Bears proved me wrong one last time, finishing the season on a three-game winning streak and qualifying for a bowl for the first time since 2019.
Saturday night’s win in Pasadena was an unconventional one for sure, as Cal only got 3.8 yards per carry from Jaydn Ott, who usually carries the offense. Instead, he carried the Golden Bears’ special teams, taking a 100-yard kickoff to the house. Meanwhile, Jeremiah Hunter hauled in 2 touchdown passes and led the team with 101 receiving yards. The real bright spot of the evening was Cal’s defense, which turned over the Bruins four times and prevented the game from ever getting competitive in the second half. In the final game of the regular season, there was no question as to which team wanted it more, and no question which team should be ranked in the top half of the conference.
7. UCLA Bruins (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12) | Last Week: 6
Last week I defended Chip Kelly amid widespread rumors that he was about to be out of a job, pointing to his decisive win over USC as evidence that UCLA has not quit. However, after the Bruins followed up that season-defining win by getting blown out of their own building by a very beatable Cal team, I am not sure what to think about Kelly.
Freshman quarterback Dante Moore had to return to game action after an early injury to Ethan Garbers. Although he led both teams with 266 passing yards, he threw two more interceptions that sank the Bruins in a big way. He finished the game with a 17.3 QBR and finished 2023 with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 11-to-9, nowhere near where a five-star quarterback should be. If there is a reason to move on from Kelly, it would be that an offensive guru’s prodigy quarterback should not look this lost at the end of his first season.
I have been more forgiving than a lot of others for UCLA’s struggles this season, as many of the team’s losses have come to very respectable opponents. On the other hand, mailing in the last game of the year in front of your home fans hardly instills confidence in the way this team responds to its coach. Of the four teams moving to the Big Ten next season, the Bruins are the ones that I have the least confidence will have immediate success.
8. USC Trojans (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12) | Last Week: 7
Since USC’s season ended a week early, I won’t spend too much time on this team this week. Despite UCLA’s disappointing finish to 2023, I could not move the Trojans back above their crosstown rival given what had happened the last time they had touched the field. Given that their game against Cal came down to the final play a few weeks back, the team’s records and head-to-head results were close enough for me to justify having the Golden Bears jump them.
At the end of the day, Cal finished the season on a three-game winning streak, while USC dropped five of its last six games. Although the Trojans still have far superior program infrastructure to have much more success in their new conference than either of the two teams directly above them, these are 2023 rankings only. Thus, USC sits well in the bottom half after a very disappointing year.
9. Washington State Cougars (5-7, 2-7 Pac-12) | Last Week: 9
Washington State played one of its most inspired football games in recent memory, giving its in-state rival all it could handle with bowl eligibility on the line. Alas, as has been the case in seven of the past eight weeks, the Cougars finished in defeat once again on a last-second field goal.
From a positive outlook, the biggest shock of this game was how good of a job the Washington State defense played against one of the most potent offenses in college football. The unit had allowed at least 35 points in five of its first eight Pac-12 contests this season, yet held Michael Penix Jr. to a shade over 200 yards passing and a 54% completion rate. The Cougars outgained Washington by 80 yards and probably would have won the game had it not been for two turnovers and 81 lost yards in penalties.
With this narrow loss and a blowout win over Colorado, WSU closes out 2023 with a couple of steps in a better direction. However, after a 4-0 start, including wins over Wisconsin and Oregon State, there is no reason why this team should not have qualified for a bowl game. The mid-season collapse that featured six straight losses was extremely troubling, and there are already strong rumors that junior quarterback Cam Ward is going to explore the transfer portal. As of now, neither team in the “Pac-2″ seems to have all that bright a future in the short term.
10. Colorado Buffaloes (4-8, 1-8 Pac-12) | Last Week: 10
On the bright side for Colorado, Deion Sanders quadrupled the Buffaloes’ 2022 win total in his first season as head coach. Unfortunately for Colorado, that statement was also true on October 7, before the team closed out the season on a six-game losing streak. Now, some recruits are decommitting from Boulder as the Buffaloes finished 2023 dead last in the Pac-12 standings.
In many ways, Utah was the worst possible opponent for Colorado to face to close out the season because of their style of play. The Utes win by imposing a physical gameplan at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, something that has been the Buffaloes’ weakness all season long. Utah averaged over five yards per carry on 53 rushing attempts, while Colorado only handed the ball off 17 times for 37 yards. Without Shedeur Sanders under center to make the occasional explosive play, the team’s offense just could not do enough in the passing game to get out of the teens.
One reason this final game — and the nature of how it played out — is significant is that the Utes are the Buffaloes’ travel partner heading into the Big 12, and Kyle Whittingham’s team is not getting any less physical any time soon. If Colorado wants to be taken seriously beyond the month of September, getting much bigger and stronger in the trenches this offseason is the only way to do so.
11. Arizona State Sun Devils (3-9, 2-7 Pac-12) | Last Week: 11
Remember Jaden Rashada? The true freshman quarterback was Arizona State’s Week 1 starter but had not touched the football field since before I started writing this column. Shockingly, Rashada found himself back out on the football field in the Sun Devil’s season finale against Arizona. With a quarterback making his third career start against a top-15 team playing its best football in November, this result was hardly a shock.
Rashada completed just 45% of his passes for 82 yards, one touchdown and a pair of interceptions, clocking his QBR in at 13.5. As has too often been the case for Arizona State, the only positive from a game where its defense nearly allowed 60 points was Cam Skattebo, who ran for 108 yards. Given that redshirt junior quarterback Trenton Bourguet had put together many respectable performances this season, I can only assume that Kenny Dillingham’s main priority this week was to give the true freshman some of that valuable year-one playing experience he has missed out on for most of 2023.
Because I do not necessarily think the Sun Devils’ top priority was winning the game on Saturday, and Stanford has had more than its fair share of embarrassing efforts of its own, I kept them out of the bottom slot to close out the season. However, unless Rashada can make some substantial progress in his game over the offseason, it might behoove Dillingham to look in another direction under center heading into 2024.
12. Stanford Cardinal (3-9, 2-7 Pac-12) | Last Week: 12
Mercifully, Stanford’s season came to a close on Saturday night after being blown out in its own building one last time, 56-23 to Notre Dame. Stanford was the only team in the FBS that did not win a single home game, making this the first time since 2006 — excluding the COVID season — that the Cardinal did not win a home game in Palo Alto. In seven games at Stanford Stadium this season, Stanford lost by an average margin of 19 points per game.
The Fighting Irish had one strategy over the weekend: hand the ball off to Audric Estimé and make the Cardinal defense stop him. As a result, Estimé gained 238 yards on 25 attempts while scoring four touchdowns. Notre Dame put up 56 points of offense on a night where Sam Hartman threw the football 15 times. On the other side of the ball, Stanford completed just half of its passing attempts as a team and coughed up the football twice. As usual, head coach Troy Taylor’s team was utterly uncompetitive.
The only saving grace for the Cardinal come 2024 is that the ACC is, as a whole, far less difficult than the Pac-12 was this season. However, with strenuous travel also on the horizon with the conference change and how hapless the program has looked this year, I am not sure the competition change will matter all that much.
“Pac-12 Power Rankings” runs every Monday.