USC fell out of the rankings after a home loss to No. 5 Washington last week. Its schedule does not get easier Saturday, as the Trojans take on No. 6 Oregon in Eugene.
Oregon is 8-1, having lost to Washington on a late missed field goal, but the Ducks find themselves in the center of the playoff race. A win at home would keep them in control of their own destiny. If they win out, they more than likely give the Pac-12 its third ever playoff appearance as the bell tolls on the conference.
USC is fighting to keep this season vaguely respectable. Losses to Notre Dame and Washington were disappointing for a team which, whatever head coach Lincoln Riley now says, started the season with National Championship ambitions. The loss to a Utah team decimated by injury was more shocking.
The Trojans only play two more games — this week, against a highly-competitive Oregon team and next weekend against crosstown rivals UCLA. They will have to play much better football than they have the last few weeks if they want to avoid ending the year at 7-5.
Tuesday’s news that defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was leaving the program was welcomed with open arms by the Trojans fanbase. It remains to be seen what his interim replacements, DL coach Shaun Nua and LB coach Brian Odom, will be able to improve, if anything.
But if USC wants to win this weekend, those improvements better come fast.
THE DEFENSE
USC’s defense tries to bend without breaking — it accepts that opposing offenses will gain yardage, but aims to keep them out of the end zone and prevent explosive plays. It didn’t do well at avoiding those breaks, hence Grinch’s ousting.
Over the last six games, the team has allowed 44 points per game. Only nine teams allow more points per game this year, none of which have a winning record. USC’s 34.5 points allowed per game — 121st out of 130 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision — would be the worst in the program’s history.
With only four days since the news of Grinch’s departure, Odom and Nua haven’t had much time to improve the defense’s discipline.
Oregon is a tough matchup for that style of defense, even when they aren’t debuting new DCs. The Ducks’ offense, which is predicated on the short pass game and run game, aims to bend opposing defenses until they break. The Ducks score more points per game than any other team in the nation — USC is second.
To have a chance at winning Saturday, USC will need to see a sharp improvement in the unit allowing the second-most explosive plays in the whole FBS.
It’s one of many areas where USC and Oregon greatly differ.
Oregon has the 11th best scoring defense in college football. In three of its last six games, Oregon has allowed just six points each. Against Washington’s more talented offense though, the Ducks allowed 36 points.
Dan Lanning has built a strong unit, but an offense of USC’s caliber should be able to remain competitive against it.
THE RUN GAMES
USC’s offense is known for its pass game this year.
That’s not necessarily surprising, since it ranks fifth in the nation in pass yards per game and is led by the reigning Heisman winner in junior quarterback Caleb Williams, but that’s not the only strong facet of the offense.
USC averages the ninth most yards per carry in college football. Redshirt junior running back MarShawn Lloyd is third in the nation in the same stat. Despite that success, the team has not stuck with the run game consistently. The Trojans average 160 rushing yards per game — roughly the median in the FBS.
As impressive as USC has been when it chooses to run the ball, the Trojans are not the most impressive ground team in this game. Oregon leads the nation in yards per carry and is 10th in rushing yards per game. Its thunder-and-lightning duo of sophomore running back Jordan James and junior running back Bucky Irving has had remarkable success on the ground this year.
The Ducks’ stats are even more ridiculous when considering the simultaneous success of their passing game. The Ducks are fourth in passing yards per game, narrowly beating the Trojans to that spot.
Part of why USC has put up so many passing yards every week is its abandonment of the run in the second half. By my count, the Trojans moved the ball on the ground 15 total times in the second half against Washington and Utah, five of which were Caleb Williams scrambles.
That leaves just 10 intentional runs in two whole halves of close football when the run was working.
Williams took the passing option on some form of run-pass option eight times — one scramble was on such a play.
Lloyd’s absence against Washington may have played a role in the team’s shift to the pass game, but it shouldn’t play a role against Oregon — Riley said Thursday that the redshirt junior is expected back. To have a good shot against the Ducks, USC will need to embrace some semblance of a run game if it continues to work.
USC faces one of the toughest tests of its season Saturday. The Trojans need to limit the mistakes they’ve made in the last few weeks if they want to have any chance at toppling the No. 6 team in the country.