“Pac-12 Power Rankings” is a column by Will Camardella ranking the Pac-12 football teams on a week-to-week basis.
For most teams in the Pac-12, the regular season is two-thirds complete. The larger the sample size gets in college football, the less preseason perceptions and individual game performances matter. For this week, I especially valued the teams that have shown the most consistent strength, while punishing teams that have strung together multiple underwhelming performances or have shown a consistent weak spot.
This week, I also am valuing head-to-head matchups less than I have all year. Although seeing two teams play each other on the field is a valuable resource to compare what two teams are, many things change throughout the football season that can sway my opinion on whether or not a given result would happen again. That is why I ranked half the teams in this conference ahead of at least one team they have lost to this year.
Without further ado, here are my final rankings for the month of October.
1. Oregon Ducks (7-1, 4-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 2
It may be shocking to see me rank Oregon above Washington, despite Washington’s head-to-head win a few weeks ago. However, I believe the decision is warranted, given the Huskies’ recent struggles and the nature of what the Ducks just accomplished. Utah has been the class of the Pac-12 for a few years, and the home-field advantage in Salt Lake City is one of the best in the country. The Utes had not lost a game at home with fans in the stadium since September 2018.
What I love about this Oregon team is that, whether the game is on national television against a college football powerhouse or on Pac-12 Network against a conference bottomfeeder, we see the same performance. Even including their loss to Washington, the Ducks are outscoring their opponents by an average of nearly 30 points per game and have only had two games this season decided by one score.
Oregon plays hard-nosed defense, and Bo Nix’s offense can score against even the most stout defenses in the country, as the Utah game proved. The Ducks are the most complete team in the conference, and, although Washington won round one, I would pick them to take down the Huskies on a neutral field in December.
2. Washington Huskies (8-0, 5-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 1
Washington is the only team in the Pac-12 with an unblemished record, but their last two performances have concerned me. It is one thing to have one off-night against a bottom-tier opponent, but UW doing so two weeks in a row troubled me enough to drop the team below a surging Oregon.
My primary concern with the Huskies is that they only really win games through their deep passing game. As both the Arizona and the Arizona State game showed, if that deep passing game can be limited, then the Huskies are in trouble. They cannot win games on the ground, after averaging just 3.4 yards per carry against lowly Stanford. Even more troubling than their ground attack was the fact that the defense allowed 33 points and nearly 500 yards to the worst offense in the conference.
Washington’s offensive explosiveness may be enough to carry the team to a conference title game, and perhaps even the College Football Playoff. However, a true national title contender needs to be able to do multiple things at an elite level, and Oregon is much closer to being that team than the Huskies are.
3. Oregon State Beavers (6-2, 3-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 3
Oregon State’s loss in Tucson was maddening, especially as the team finally looked like a true contender to go to the Pac-12 Championship game. Normally, it would be grounds for me to drop them, but I could not find a team that I could justify passing them after this week. Both of my contenders to take the third spot – UCLA and Utah – have lost to the Beavers by multiple scores in head-to-head matchups and have serious flaws of their own.
The Pac-12 is still a quarterback-driven conference in 2023, and DJ Uiagalelei still has some work to do to keep up with the top-tier signal callers. Since the start of conference play, Uiagalelei has only completed over 60% of his passes once, against Cal. His 17-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio is great for a team that usually plays great defense and is capable of running the ball, but in a game like we saw on Saturday, Oregon State needs its quarterback to elevate the rest of the roster and find a way to win.
The Beavers’ defense will also need to find a way to make its game travel away from Corvallis. In four home games, the unit has allowed less than 12 points per game, but in four road games, they have given up more than 30 per game. OSU’s trip to Boulder next week will be the last chance to turn the corner on the road before it visits Autzen Stadium to close out the regular season.
4. UCLA Bruins (6-2, 3-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 5
UCLA’s defense remains an elite unit after dominating Colorado at the line of scrimmage throughout the game on Saturday. What Chip Kelly needed to compete for a conference title was a stable offense that could run the ball and protect the football.
It seems that Ethan Garbers has stabilized the quarterback position for the Bruins; he has completed 72% of his passes since taking over the starting job two weeks ago. He has tossed just one interception in that span in 55 pass attempts, a stark contrast to what Dante Moore was doing under center. Two fumbles by Carson Steele were costly but should be much easier to clean up than Moore’s interception problem.
UCLA’s offense is far from an elite unit, but its defense ranks first in the conference in both points and yards allowed per game. Their formula for winning games may not be successful against the likes of Oregon and Washington, but neither of those teams are on the Bruins’ schedule. I believe they profile well against all of their remaining opponents, so don’t be shocked if they finish a strong third in the conference standings.
5. Utah Utes (6-2, 3-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 4
Utah has had some memorable moments despite facing a ton of adversity this season, but their blowout loss this weekend was a serious black mark. It appeared that the Utes’ offense had finally turned the corner after a 34-point performance against USC, but they failed to reach the end zone once against Oregon’s defense.
Bryson Barnes is not even close to a good enough quarterback to allow Utah to compete with the top tier of this conference. He has thrown for over 160 yards just once this season, and he still has more interceptions than touchdown passes on the year. Utah’s run game was no better on Saturday, failing to average even three yards per carry.
Just because the Ducks, one of the most potent offenses in the country, scored 35 on the Utes’ defense does not mean that the unit was overrated and won’t bounce back in the future. However, it is clear that the Cam Rising injury sunk any chances they may have of winning a third straight Pac-12 title.
6. Arizona Wildcats (5-3, 3-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 7
Prior to its huge win over Oregon State on Saturday, Arizona had not won back-to-back games against ranked opponents since 2014. Every coach can say that their team will earn momentum from close losses like the ones the Wildcats suffered to USC and Washington, but Jedd Fisch’s team has actually done so. The Washington State win was a blowout, but pulling out this close game has proven that Arizona’s previous heartbreak taught them how to win a tight football game.
This is the second straight year Fisch has had his team playing its best football late in the season; their signature win in 2022 came in November against a ranked UCLA. Freshman quarterback Noah Fifita has progressed from a capable backup to a player who can lead his team to victory, as shown by his two fourth-quarter touchdown passes this weekend. He overcame a weak running performance, looked a very strong defense in the eye and completed nearly 80% of his passes.
This win is more validation that Fisch is building a much stronger program than Arizona fans have been used to. Although their early-season struggles will prevent them from doing anything truly special in 2023, the Wildcats will be a dangerous team down the stretch with the way they are currently playing.
7. USC Trojans (7-2, 5-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 6
USC may have a head coach with a 73-15 career record and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, but I do not see a one-point win over lowly Cal as an underperformance. That game, in which the Trojans needed a two-point conversion stop in the final minute to avoid their third straight loss, is par for the course from what we have seen from this team all season long.
With the lone exception of the first half against Colorado, USC has not looked like an elite football team since their win over Stanford on Sept. 9. The Trojans’ record may still look impressive at the surface level, but their point differential is -20 over their last five games. Yes, they are 5-1 in Pac-12 play, but the teams they have beaten have a combined record of 7-19 in conference games.
Offensively, USC often looks out of sync with receivers who struggle to get open and an offensive line that has been unable to protect Caleb Williams for much of the season. Defensively, the Trojans are a disaster defending the run, allowing a conference-high 172 ground yards per game.
Lincoln Riley claimed on Saturday he believed his team was still capable of winning the Pac-12 title. With USC’s final three games being against Washington, Oregon and UCLA, I believe Riley’s group has already won its final game in the regular season.
8. Washington State Cougars (4-4, 1-4 Pac-12) | Last Week: 8
Washington State’s losing streak now extends to four games after the team took its most humiliating defeat yet at the hands of Arizona State. The Cougars are now allowing 36 points per conference game, with three of those five games being against teams in the bottom half of the Pac-12 in scoring. The Sun Devils have been dysfunctional at many points on offense this year, but they had no trouble moving the ball up and down the field on WSU.
On the offensive side, only Utah and Stanford are scoring fewer points in conference play than Washington State. Cam Ward had decent counting numbers on Saturday, but the Cougars failed to run the ball effectively and failed on nine of 12 third-down attempts. The one-dimensional nature of the offense has been its biggest problem, as they are one of two teams in the entire conference failing to rush for over 100 yards per game.
Washington State looked like a formidable challenge in the Pac-12 after a strong non-conference showing. However, this team’s conference record has demonstrated that the Cougars are not yet close to ready.
9. Colorado Buffaloes (4-4, 1-4 Pac-12) | Last Week: 9
Colorado’s problems remained against UCLA on Saturday. The Buffaloes averaged just one yard per rushing attempt, and Shedeur Sanders was sacked seven times. When the team was successful in 2023, it was because Sanders’ play at quarterback elevated the rest of the roster.
Sanders’ performance was far from elite in this matchup; he averaged just five yards per attempt and only one of his receivers eclipsed 50 yards. Yes, the Bruins have a strong defense, but Deion Sanders should have been able to pull out a win on a night when his team won the turnover battle 4-0.
Colorado continues to be a weak team at the line of scrimmage, a recipe for disaster against most teams in the Pac-12 this season. If Shedeur cannot find a way to overcome his roster’s flaws in the final four games of the season as he did in the first three, the Buffaloes will have no chance at bowl eligibility.
10. Cal Golden Bears (3-5, 1-4 Pac-12) | Last Week: 10
I am sure that the Golden Bears came out of their game against USC, in which they hung with a preseason top-10 team until the final minute, feeling relatively positive. I, however, was not so impressed. I have already expressed that I believe the Trojans are overrated, and Cal should have been able to close that game out, given the 14-point lead it had early in the fourth quarter.
The Golden Bears were extremely careless with the football on Saturday, turning the ball over four times and gifting USC 20 points off of those turnovers. This has been a pattern all year long for them; their 16 giveaways are tied for the 12th most in the NCAA. Cal can do some good things on the offensive side of the ball, especially in the running game with Jaydn Ott, but its mistakes are too costly and occur too often for those successes to translate into wins.
11. Arizona State Sun Devils (2-6, 1-4 Pac-12) | Last Week: 11
Arizona State was the last team in the Pac-12 to earn a conference win, but it finally did so by taking down Washington State on Saturday. For much of the season, the Sun Devils’ offense has been pretty one-note, running everything through running back Cam Skattebo. This weekend, the unit finally found another threat in backup running back DeCarlos Brooks, who found the end zone three separate times.
Together, the running back tandem of Skattebo and Brooks averaged 8.5 yards per carry, and quarterback Trenton Bourguet played a turnover-free game. ASU’s momentum from their strong effort in Seattle has carried over, which is a really good sign for head coach Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils still are not a very good football team, but they have shaken off a disastrous start to the season and are playing respectable football again.
12. Stanford Cardinal (2-6, 1-5 Pac-12)
It was nice to see Stanford finally put up a fight against a far superior opponent, but it has still folded to better competition far more often than it hasn’t. In a sport where the home team wins about 70% of the time, the Cardinal are still looking for their first win in Stanford Stadium in 2023.
Although its offense has made some progress over the last two weeks, Stanford’s defense has made none whatsoever. The unit has allowed at least 42 points in four consecutive games; only UMass, Southern Miss, Temple and UAB have allowed more points per game on the FBS level than the Cardinal.
Now that Arizona State has joined Stanford in the two-win club, I feel even more comfortable keeping Troy Taylor’s group in the basement of this conference. The reality is that ASU has played inspired football far more often than the Cardinal, regardless of what happened on Saturday night.
“Pac-12 Power Rankings” runs every Monday.