“Pac-12 Power Rankings” is a column by Will Camardella ranking the Pac-12 football teams on a week-to-week basis.
And then there were four.
After USC lost its first home game in the Lincoln Riley era to earn a second loss that all but ended its College Football Playoff hopes, the Pac-12 will almost certainly come down to four teams: Washington, Oregon, Oregon State and Utah. The Huskies have the best win in the conference thus far after their heavyweight bout with the Ducks, but neither program has a clear path to the championship game yet.
It is remarkable that the Trojans – the conferences’ best hope at a College Football Playoff team last season – will only be trying to play spoiler for the remainder of the season, but that’s just how this conference has been this year. None of the coaches in my top three teams have extensive experience coaching a Playoff contender late into the season; Dan Lanning and Kalen DeBoer are both in their second seasons in their respective jobs, while Jonathan Smith has only won at least 10 games once in his career.
I think new faces competing on college football’s biggest stage is extremely fun for the sport, and with upcoming games such as Oregon vs. Utah, Washington vs. Oregon State and Oregon State vs. Oregon, there is still a lot for these programs to prove. As far as which teams I expect to rise to the occasion down the stretch, I’ll let these rankings do the talking.
1. Washington Huskies (7-0, 4-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 1
After a season-defining win at home over Oregon a week ago, Washington’s Pac-12 After Dark matchup against 1-5 Arizona State was a natural let-down spot. It’s not as if the Huskies could not move the ball against the Sun Devil defense; they were just terrible situationally. They turned the ball over four times, went 3-for-11 on 3rd down attempts and failed to score an offensive touchdown.
Yes, only mustering 15 points against one of the worst teams in the Power Five is a troubling optic, but everything the Huskies have accomplished this season indicates that this game was a fluke. Turnovers killed Washington throughout the evening, but the team had only coughed the ball up six times in its previous six contests prior to this disaster. I will not discredit an offense that has looked like the most prolific in college football because of one bad performance.
The Huskies’ defense still held up its end of the bargain to secure the win, holding strong in key red zone situations and getting a backbreaking pick-six from cornerback Mishael Powell. Despite the fact that this game was way closer than it should have been, a night like this could go a long way towards helping Washington become an even more complete football team.
2. Oregon Ducks (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 2
The Ducks lost their first game of the season in devastating fashion a week ago but are still very much alive in the College Football Playoff race. Their objective against Washington State was to shake off that loss and win convincingly in front of their home fans. It may have taken a quarter for Oregon to get going, but it did put together a solid 14-point victory to get its season back on track.
In the victory, the Ducks reminded the country why they can be such a dangerous team, starting with the effectiveness of the running game. Bucky Irving was sensational once again on Saturday, averaging over eight yards per carry on 15 attempts and finding the end zone twice. Defensively, Oregon’s pass rush returned in a big way, compiling six sacks of Cam Ward over the course of the afternoon.
The Ducks can beat teams in more ways than any other contender in this conference, and the WSU game reminded the nation of that. If Bo Nix can stay poised against a raucous Utah defense in a hostile road environment next week, I don’t see what keeps Oregon from a Washington rematch in December.
3. Oregon State Beavers (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 3
Oregon State was idle this weekend but will have a lot to prove in the home stretch of its schedule. The Beavers’ two signature wins this season over Utah and UCLA have been at home, with their lone loss coming on the road against Washington State.
If they want any chance of competing for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game, they will need to step up their game on the road, as just two of their five remaining games will be in Corvallis. Their schedule culminates with back-to-back games against Washington and Oregon, which is as tough a close to the season as there is in the country.
The biggest contrast for Jonathan Smith’s team in home and away games has been his defense; Oregon State allows 11 points per game in Corvallis and over 30 per road game. Next week, it will battle an Arizona team in Tucson that has scored 80 points in its last two contests. If the Beavers shut down the Wildcats on the road on Saturday, it will go a long way towards telling me they are ready for their toughest tests in November.
4. Utah Utes (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 5
For Utah fans, Saturday night was bittersweet. On one hand, the Utes continued their absolute domination of USC in a thrilling road victory. On the other hand, head coach Kyle Whittingham announced that Cam Rising, the one player who could elevate the Utes to a College Football Playoff contender, is being shut down for the remainder of the season.
Utah’s defense has been a force all season long, but facing Caleb Williams was its biggest test of the season thus far, and the unit passed with flying colors. The Utes’ secondary was draped all over the Trojan receiving core throughout the night, and, excluding a pick-six and a drive where USC started at the Utah 15-yard line, the defense allowed a total of 20 points to a Lincoln Riley offense.
Now that Bryson Barnes is the likely starter for the remainder of the season, the Utes’ defense will need to continue to shut down elite quarterbacks, starting with Bo Nix on Saturday. Barnes has looked a lot better in the last two weeks, but he cannot throw interceptions like the one he had in the fourth quarter this past weekend. Nix and Michael Penix Jr. do not make those kinds of decisions, and Utah would be unlikely to survive a seven-point mistake like that again.
5. UCLA Bruins (5-2, 2-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 7
For the long-term development of the former five-star recruit Dante Moore, making a quarterback change may have been ill-advised by UCLA. For the short-term objective of winning football games in 2023, the switch to Ethan Garbers looks like the right decision thus far. UCLA really struggled on the road against Utah and Oregon State with Moore under center, and Chip Kelly hoped to turn the tide by starting Garbers in Palo Alto.
The junior looked comfortable, albeit against one of the worst teams in the country, completing 20 of 28 passes for 240 yards without turning the ball over. He helped his receivers and running backs succeed in the offense, while the Bruin defense returned to its stout form by completely shutting down the Stanford offense. By the time the Cardinal found the end zone, UCLA was already up 35-0 late in the third quarter.
The Bruins’ schedule the rest of the way is actually pretty manageable compared to others in this conference, with just one of their five remaining games against a ranked opponent. That ranked opponent is USC, a team that is clearly trending in the wrong direction. If Garbers continues to manage this offense effectively and avoid big mistakes, expect UCLA to surge heading into Bowl season.
6. USC Trojans (6-2, 4-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 4
I could not be more surprised at how out of sorts a Lincoln Riley-coached football team looks more than halfway into his second season. Yes, allowing 34 points to one of the worst offenses in the Pac-12 is deeply troubling for Alex Grinch, but Caleb Williams and company are supposed to be a potent enough offense to overcome performances like that. Instead, the offense is coming off its worst two-game stretch in the Riley era.
On a night where Williams struggled to find open receivers and MarShawn Lloyd was averaging over 12 yards per carry, one might expect USC to be a little more run-heavy. Yet, Lloyd only had seven rushing attempts the entire game in the latest edition of perplexing offensive gameplans by Riley. At the same time, the Trojan defense never figured out how to slow down Sione Vaki in the passing game, allowing 149 yards and two touchdowns on five catches to the two-way player.
On both sides of the ball, USC looks like a poorly coached mess, and this has been the case since Week 2 against Stanford. The Trojans won games against inferior opponents to start the year but have folded in their only two major tests thus far. With matchups against Washington and Oregon still to come, I believe their ceiling is 8-4 at best.
7. Arizona Wildcats (4-3, 2-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 5
It gives me no pleasure to drop Arizona two spots in these rankings after a bye week, but, with more data across college football available to me, the Wildcats’ resume does not look as good as it has in previous weeks.
Taking USC to triple overtime three weeks ago looked impressive when the Trojans were widely considered a National Championship contender. Now, that looks like a game Arizona should have been able to win outright. Similarly, its blowout win over Washington State holds less water now that the Cougars have dropped to 1-3 in conference play.
I cannot place the Wildcats above USC given the head-to-head result, and I believe UCLA is a better all-around football team right now. If they give Oregon State a game next weekend, I am happy to boost them back up again, but the circumstances of this conference forced me to drop this team for the time being.
8. Washington State Cougars (4-3, 1-3 Pac-12) | Last Week: 8
The Cougars have now lost three straight football games and have been outscored 107-47 in that span. The offensive stats looked better for Washington State against Oregon than they have in previous weeks, but you cannot settle for field goals against an opponent like the Ducks. Washington State only got in the end zone once, while Oregon flirted with yet another 40-point day.
Despite the losing streak, expect WSU to make a surge as their schedule eases up significantly. Before their big rivalry matchup against Washington to close out the season, the Cougars will match up with Arizona State, Cal, Colorado and Stanford in the next month. Even if they go 4-0 in that stretch, which I expect they will, the team has proven itself not ready to compete with other strong programs in the Pac-12. The Oregon State win was important, but it appears to be a fluke, as WSU has done nothing but disappoint since.
9. Colorado Buffaloes (4-3, 1-3 Pac-12) | Last Week: 9
I don’t think a bye week could have come at a better time for Deion Sanders’ group, which has lost three of its last four games. For two weeks, Colorado can drown out the outside hype and focus on improving as a football team after blowing a 29-point lead to lowly Stanford. The Buffaloes’ best chance of securing bowl eligibility will come in a pair of matchups with Arizona and Washington State, the only two games left on their schedule not against ranked teams.
In order to get to a sixth win, Colorado will need Travis Hunter to turn around a secondary that has been torched in his absence. Colorado has the worst passing defense in the Pac-12, and the unit allowed 340 yards per game through the air in Hunter’s absence. Until the Buffaloes’ secondary starts to follow the example of their Hall of Fame head coach, the team will not be a national contender in today’s college football.
10. Cal Golden Bears (3-4, 1-3 Pac-12) | Last Week: 10
Cal has done a fine job this season winning some games it was expected to while not having embarrassing losses at the same scale as either Arizona State or Stanford. At the same time, the high points of the Sun Devil and Cardinal seasons have been more impressive than anything the Golden Bears have been able to achieve. Cal has an opportunity this weekend to finally hang with a far superior opponent when it welcomes a reeling USC team to Berkeley on Saturday.
If there is one thing that the Golden Bears have been able to do this season, it is run the ball effectively. They rank third in the Pac-12 with nearly 200 ground yards per game. The Trojans have the worst run defense in the conference, and their best defensive tackle, Bear Alexander, will not be able to play in the first half after taking a late targeting penalty against Utah. There is an opportunity for Cal to dominate in the ground game, run clock, keep Caleb Williams off the field and keep this game close until halftime.
Throughout this season, we have seen some of the worst teams in college football have moments of brilliance, most recently when Virginia pulled off a top-10 upset over undefeated North Carolina. The Golden Bears are yet to have a moment like that, and, given the current state of USC, this week will likely be their last, best chance.
11. Arizona State Sun Devils (1-6, 0-4 Pac-12) | Last Week: 12
Last week, I had Stanford leapfrog Arizona State because its comeback win over Colorado was more impressive than anything the Sun Devils had done this season. That changed on Saturday night; while Stanford was getting boat raced by UCLA in its own building, ASU was giving a National Championship contender all it could handle.
After Michael Penix Jr. and his host of elite pass catchers went up and down the field against an elite Oregon defense, Arizona State somehow outgained Washington in its own building. The Sun Devil secondary held Penix to a 41 QBR, forced 13 incomplete passes and turned the Huskies over four times. On the other hand, Kenny Dillingham’s offense was a disappointment, not only failing to put more than one touchdown on the board, but also giving the lead away on an 89-yard pick six.
Arizona State is still far away from being a contender, but Dillingham has now twice proven he can be a great motivator for high-profile games. Given that I do not think Stanford is capable of what ASU has done against Washington and USC, I moved them back out of the basement.
12. Stanford Cardinal (2-5, 1-4 Pac-12) | Last Week: 11
If you thought that a season-defining 29-point comeback in Boulder would have sparked some positive momentum for Stanford, think again. Once again, the Cardinal got blown out in their own building by UCLA in a game that was essentially over at kickoff. The first eight possessions for Stanford resulted in punts, with five of the eight being three-and-outs.
In a sport that values home-field advantage more than any other, the Cardinal are now 0-4 in home games, losing by a combined score of 135-56. Troy Taylor’s offense ranks in the bottom three in the conference in most offensive categories, and his defense is allowing over 40 points per Pac-12 contest. Stanford has returned to being an uncompetitive entity in the nation’s most competitive conference, and, with the possible exception of the Cal game, I do not see that changing.
“Pac-12 Power Rankings” runs every Monday.