It’s that time of the week again, football fans. Whether you’re in the thick of midterm season, behind on sleep from your fall break travels or just craving some top-tier college football action, I’m happy to report that this Saturday just might boast the best slate so far this season. But first, let’s take a look back at last week’s games.
Last week’s game of the week was a thriller with then-No. 7 Washington defeating then-No. 8 Oregon in a matchup that came down to the final whistle. The lead changed hands six times, but the Huskies held the advantage for about half of the second quarter and all of the third, entering the final period up 29-26. With 12:58 left in the fourth, Oregon sophomore running back Jordan James scored on a 10-yard run to give the Ducks a 33-29 lead.
But Washington quarterback and Heisman hopeful Michael Penix Jr. responded. Taking advantage of strong field position after a turnover on downs, Penix dropped a beautiful pass into the arms of Ja’Lynn Polk in double coverage for 35 yards, which he followed up with an 18-yard end zone strike to Rome Odunze to take the lead 36-33.
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix mounted a strong comeback on the ensuing drive, completing six consecutive passes to bring the Ducks all the way to the 25-yard-line as the clock neared zero, but kicker Camden Lewis shanked a potential game-winning 43-yard field goal to give Penix and the Huskies their first ranked win of the season. Washington climbed to No. 5 in the AP Poll with the victory, cementing themselves as a true playoff contender — and with no more top-10 teams remaining on their schedule, an undefeated season (and, thus, a strong playoff seed) doesn’t seem like a stretch if the Huskies continue to play as effectively as they did last week.
I’m officially back to .500 for upset predictions on the year after picking Arizona to defeat then-No. 19 Washington State on the Cougars’ home turf. After nearly knocking off Washington three weeks ago, and then coming to L.A. and taking the Trojans to overtime the week after, I just knew Arizona was too hungry to let their third consecutive shot at a ranked upset pass them by. In the end, we got a game that wasn’t even close, with Wazzu scoring on their opening drive and proceeding to give up 44 unanswered points for a final score of 44-6.
The Wildcats’ freshman quarterback, Noah Fifita, continued to impress, completing 34 of 43 passes for 342 yards in the contest. But the true playmaker of this game was sophomore running back Jonah Coleman, who took 11 carries for 70 yards and three touchdowns, in addition to four receptions for 98 yards. Arizona used Coleman all over the field, with the highlight of his outing being the shallow drag route he took for 69 yards on the Wildcats’ opening drive to set up for a 1-yard touchdown rush the next play. Wazzu found themselves bounced from the AP Poll after taking a second consecutive Pac-12 loss, while Arizona remained unranked, but climbed above .500 for the first time since September.
As I said, this week’s slate has plenty to offer. So buckle up and get ready for a great weekend of football.
Happy Saturday eve.
GAME OF THE WEEK — No. 3 Ohio State (6-0) vs. No. 7 Penn State (6-0)
Columbus, Ohio 9:00 a.m. PDT on FOX
Eight undefeated Power 5 teams remain as we enter Week 8 of the college football season. On Saturday, two of them will face off in what will be arguably the most exciting matchup we’ve seen so far this year. With such a wide field of undefeated squads (some of whom won’t face real competition again until their conference championships), whoever loses this weekend in Columbus is almost certain to be waving their playoff hopes goodbye — while whoever wins will have an extremely strong argument as the most proven playoff contender in football.
This one will be a true defensive showdown, as both teams rank top-10 in FBS total defense. Penn State is currently the best statistical defense in football, the only team in FBS allowing less than 200 yards per game (193.7) and less than four yards per play (3.42). This unit is good at everything they do. The team ranks second in rushing defense, allowing a mere 72.5 yards per game on the ground. And they rank first in pass defense, giving up just 121.2 yards per game through the air — more than 20 yards per game better than the second-best team. This is probably due in part to the team’s 27 total sacks, the second-most of any FBS team. Four different Penn State linemen have tallied at least two sacks and nine total tackles, led by senior edge rusher Adisa Isaac, who has five sacks and eight solo stops through six games.
Don’t count out the Buckeyes though — while their stats are slightly less impressive (seventh in total defense with 263.5 yards allowed per game, and second in yards per play at 4.00), they’ve faced better competition, notably the win they notched in September over then-No. 9 Notre Dame. And I don’t have to tell anyone who saw what the Fighting Irish did to USC last weekend that Notre Dame is no joke.
This game will ultimately come down to what offense shows up more ready to compete. Questions have been raised about both units’ legitimacy, as with only one ranked matchup on each team’s resumé, it’s hard to tell how much of their success has stemmed from mismatches.
Ohio State has, for the most part, looked efficient and effective on offense. Quarterback Kyle McCord has thrown for 1,651 yards on a respectable 64.1 percent completion with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. Junior wide receiver and projected top NFL Draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr. leads the team and the Big Ten with 604 receiving yards and five touchdowns, and senior tight end Cade Stover’s 359 receiving yards rank third amongst FBS tight ends.
But the Buckeyes have only played one top-25 defense (Notre Dame), and their playmakers struggled — McCord only completed 56.8 percent of his passes and failed to find the end zone, while Harrison found himself restricted to only three catches for a mere 32 yards. The Buckeyes could be in for a long day against Penn State, especially if their injury woes continue. Ohio State’s feature running back, junior Treveyon Henderson, hasn’t played since September with an “undisclosed injury,” and No. 2 receiver Emeka Egbuka is questionable to play Saturday after sitting out last week’s game with a lower-body injury sustained in Week 6 against Maryland.
Penn State’s offensive statistics tell a similar story: a skilled unit with little experience against top defenses. Sophomore quarterback Drew Allar has thrown for 1,254 yards on 65.2 percent completion with 12 touchdowns and no interceptions. Their rush attack boasts a strong 1-2 punch with sophomore running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who have combined for 737 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground in six games. But the Nittany Lions are even less battle-tested than the Buckeyes — they have yet to face a top-25 defense, and their strongest defensive opponent, Iowa, has still allowed an average of 325.6 yards this season.
Both of these teams will come out firing, but who ends up victorious will hinge on which offense takes a step forward and plays at the elite level necessary to defeat a top-10 defense. It’s pretty hard to make a strong prediction for a matchup between such powerhouse teams, but my gut is with Penn State on this one. The nation’s top defense could prove too much for a Buckeye squad that barely squeaked by Notre Dame (arguably only because the Fighting Irish had 10 defenders on the field for the game’s final play).
UPSET ALERT — No. 11 Alabama (6-1) vs. No. 17 Tennessee (5-1)
Tuscaloosa, Ala. 12:30 p.m. PDT on CBS
Is it time for the Crimson Tide to fall again? In two consecutive weeks, Alabama has nearly lost to unranked SEC teams in close games defined by sloppy play, taken advantage of by eager underdog teams. Most recently against Arkansas, ‘Bama punted on four of their five second-half drives, allowing the Razorbacks to climb back from a 21-6 halftime deficit to trail 24-21 in the fourth quarter. The Gamecocks’ final drive ended just a few first downs outside of field goal range, and just a few more big plays for the Razorbacks could have made the look of this column much, much different.
Alabama has had four concerningly close games with (now) unranked teams in the last five weeks. A disaster of a game against South Florida saw the Crimson Tide fail to score a single touchdown in the first half. The Tide hosted then-No. 17 Ole Miss a week later, and did the same thing. Follow that up with a weak 26-20 victory over unranked Texas A&M a few weeks later, and then the Arkansas game, and ‘Bama isn’t looking so hot.
When I see a pattern like this — a series of close wins against undermatched teams leading up to a marquee matchup — all of the upset alarms start going off in my head. Tennessee has won two of its last three games by 21 or more, and has less to lose than Alabama given their lower position in the poll due to losing to unranked Florida.
Alabama and Tennessee’s defenses are evenly matched, ranked 15 and 17 respectively. But Alabama’s 86th-ranked offense could struggle to outpace a Vols offense that ranks sixth in the FBS in rushing yards per game. The running back trio of junior Jaylen Wright, senior Jabari Small and sophomore Dylan Sampson have a combined 1,203 yards and nine touchdowns, with all three boasting at least one 90+ yard game (Wright leads with four). And we can’t forget to add on quarterback Joe Milton III’s 173 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Alabama certainly has the capacity to win this game, but doing so will require playing at a significantly higher level than they’ve shown in their last few outings. If they don’t, Tennessee will be ready to take advantage.
ON THE RISE
No. 6 Oklahoma (6-0)
vs. Central Florida, 9:00 a.m. PDT on ABC
In my personal opinion, OU ranked at No. 6 is a travesty. They were essentially punished for their bye in this week’s AP Poll, bumped from their No. 5 spot by Washington. I would say the Sooners’ win over then-No. 3 Texas — the team that knocked off Alabama — is more impressive than the Huskies beating Oregon, a team whose strongest win came against a fraudulent Colorado team that has since exited the poll and lost PAC-12 relevancy, but that’s neither here nor there.
It’s important to remember that the AP Poll doesn’t really matter once CFP rankings commence in about a week and a half. The Sooners should handle 3-3 Central Florida at home in senior quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s first matchup with his former school. With no ranked opponents on the rest of their schedule, they could continue to climb into a playoff spot if they avoid sloppy play. If Oklahoma can defeat UCF this weekend and Kansas next Saturday, it’ll be interesting to see how they fare at 8-0 in the initial CFP rankings, especially considering either Ohio State or Penn State will no longer be undefeated.
No. 23 Tulane
vs. North Texas, 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2
After losing their second game of the season to No. 13 Ole Miss, Tulane has won their last four games, and don’t show any signs of stopping. They had a close one against Memphis last week, but took control down 21-17 to start the fourth quarter with two unanswered touchdowns for a 31-21 victory.
Against a North Texas defense ranked bottom-five in all of FBS, I have no doubt the Green Wave will continue to climb the rankings in next week’s AP Poll. Besides next week’s road matchup with a sneaky-good Rice team (more on that in next week’s column), their schedule contains very little challenge to close out the year, so it’s pretty realistic that Tulane could win out and find themselves slotted for a major bowl game come December.
SOMETHING TO PROVE
No. 18 USC (6-1)
vs. No. 14 Utah, 5:00 p.m. PDT on FOX
If you’re still (somehow) a faithful Lincoln Riley, Alex Grinch, modern-era USC football fan, I advise you to skip this last part of my column and go on with your evening. It’s about to get ugly.
What in the world is going on with Southern Cal football? Watching the Trojans over the past two weeks has been downright embarrassing — as if nearly being upset by an unranked Arizona in their first evening game of the year wasn’t enough, they then went to South Bend and got absolutely handled by Notre Dame for all 60 minutes of a game that can only be described as dysfunctional.
Shockingly, the Trojans’ notoriously awful defense had a decent night, allowing only 251 yards to a Fighting Irish offense that has averaged 414.5 yards per game this season. This time, the offense was the problem, consistently struggling to produce in all phases, all night long. For a school with a $110 Million dollar head coach, USC runs plays and blocking schemes back to back far too often — can someone tell Lincoln Riley this isn’t Madden, and you can’t just spam the same zone concept because you have a good running back?
Notre Dame only scored four offensive touchdowns — three of which came after interceptions thrown by Caleb Williams. USC’s supposedly generational quarterback finished the night 23 of 37 for 199 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions, turning the ball over four times before finding the end zone, and effectively destroying his Heisman campaign. According to USA Today, Williams went from holding the second-highest odds for the award last week to leaving the top five completely after last weekend’s meltdown.
And what was Williams’ response? Did wonder boy own up to his horrible play, or make a Tebow-like promise to turn the season around? Not exactly. He felt it was important to tell reporters how “everybody wants to be in these two 12-and-a-half shoes.” I don’t speak for anyone else, but I can’t say I would have enjoyed spending this week as Caleb Williams, roaming campus at USC after playing the biggest game of the year like a trigger-happy seventh-grader plays Retro Bowl. Catch me in the back of class with a hoodie and an N-95.
Regardless, No.14 Utah is back in the Coliseum this weekend after handing the Trojans two disappointing losses last season. It’s still unclear if their star quarterback Cam Rising will make his season debut after sitting out the Utes’ first six games from a knee injury sustained in last year’s Rose Bowl game. If he does, I fear the worst for the Trojans. But with Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham telling the media this week that Rising could return next year on a medical redshirt if he sat out the rest of the season, and no update from Utah on his status as of Friday afternoon, it doesn’t seem likely. Without Rising, Utah is a bottom-25 ranked offense, averaging 322.2 yards per game and scoring only 14 offensive touchdowns all season.
But even without Rising, Utah still boasts a top-10 defense, allowing opponents to average only 277.8 yards per game and giving up only nine touchdowns all year. And don’t worry about a weak PAC-12 schedule with that statistic — Utah boasts a ranked win over No. 25 UCLA and out-of-conference victories on Florida and Baylor. This is a must-win game for the Trojans — for Williams to show he’s not all hype, for Riley to demonstrate his hiring wasn’t a mistake and for the defense to prove last week’s improvements weren’t a fluke.