“Shout” is a column by Matthew Andrade about college football.
It was déjà vu.
Oregon had a lead late. Washington’s offense erupted to take it back. And what’s driving the discourse after the game is Oregon head coach Dan Lanning’s fourth-down decisions.
It was the same result as last year except, this time, Lanning’s crucial decision to go for it on fourth down in the closing minutes was even more justified. Last year, a minute and a half remained on the game clock with the game tied and the Ducks facing a fourth-and-1 at their own 33-yard line. Oregon went for it and was stopped. This year, the Ducks were up four points and faced a fourth-and-3 at the Washington 47-yard line with 2:16 left. Needless to say, Oregon went for it and senior quarterback Bo Nix’s pass fell incomplete.
The first thought rushing through many fans’ brains was, did Lanning not learn from his mistakes last year? How does he blow a game like this two years in a row?
First of all, it wasn’t the same decision as last year. This was 20 yards further down the field and a first down meant a win. The Ducks converted 80% of their fourth-down attempts coming into the game, according to Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports. Any team would be counting its lucky stars if it needed just three yards to beat the No. 7 team in the country and had converted that down 80% of the time heading into the game.
If you punt instead, you’re giving Washington’s prolific senior quarterback Michael Penix Jr. the opportunity to march down the field and score.
“They had proven to be an explosive offense regardless of where they get the ball,” Lanning said of the fourth-down decision late in the game. “It gave ourselves the ball back with plenty of time to score.”
To Lanning’s point, it would likely have taken Washington an additional 30 to 40 seconds to get to the end zone if the Ducks punted and pinned the Huskies deep in their own territory. After Oregon went for it on fourth down and failed to convert, the Huskies scored in 33 seconds. That left the Ducks’ offense 1:38 to just get into field-goal range. If the Ducks punted, Oregon probably gets the ball with under 1:10 left. That’s not a recipe for success.
Second of all, it wasn’t a mistake. It’s well known that Lanning is part of the new wave of head coaches who base their in-game decisions primarily on analytics. That is, they’re making decisions using percentages to determine what would have the highest chance of winning the team the game.
Some coaches use analytics early in the game when it’s less risky. Some use it only at the end to determine how to essentially close out the win.
Lanning uses analytics the entire time. In fact, before the most controversial fourth down, Oregon had already faced two fourth-and-3′s in the game. The first was in the final seconds of the first half at Washington’s 3-yard line. The other was in the third quarter at Washington’s 8-yard line. Both could have been easy field goals. Lanning opted to try for touchdowns and the Ducks were stopped on both attempts.
After those fourth downs were stuffed, it would make sense to abandon the strategy, right? Wrong. If you’re committing to analytics, you have to commit to it all the way. ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote that Oregon’s offense gains at least three yards on 70% of plays. That means the Ducks had approximately a 70% chance of converting on each of these fourth downs by just running their traditional offense. If you fail twice, you should still feel very confident you can convert on the third try. The stats eventually have to get back to the mean.
I’m reminded of the film Moneyball where Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane puts together an unconventional team. The team is assembled with everyone in the exact right position for the A’s to win. Deviating from that strategy would put the team in ruins.
Oakland’s manager is reluctant to adopt the strategy and once he does, the team loses just about every game. But Beane persists with the lineup he created and eventually the A’s go on one of the longest win streaks in MLB history.
That’s how you have to treat analytics. You can’t be reckless, but you have to trust the numbers. Eventually the stats have to break Oregon’s way in one of these big games.
It has to, or so the numbers say.
“Shout” runs every Tuesday.