“Pac-12 Power Rankings” is a column by Will Camardella ranking the Pac-12 football teams on a week-to-week basis.
Early on in a college football season, it is easiest to evaluate teams by use of the transitive property. If A is greater than B, and B is greater than C, then A must be greater than C. Likewise, ranking the middle of the Pac-12 conference seemed fairly simple when Washington State beat Oregon State, who beat Utah, who beat UCLA. Obviously, this means that the Cougars are better than the Bruins, right?
Well, after UCLA took down WSU at home, deciphering the true pecking order of the second tier of this conference just became a completely chaotic task. Yet, that’s what I’m here to do. Let’s get into it.
1. Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 1
With Oregon getting set to battle Washington in Seattle this Saturday, this is the final week that choosing the best team in college football’s best conference will be this dramatic. Both the Ducks and the Huskies enjoyed bye weeks ahead of their biggest matchup of the season, so there is no reason for me to change my opinion from a week ago.
As a summary from Week 6, I believe Oregon is the most well-rounded team in this conference. Only one team in the country has both a top five scoring offense and a top five scoring defense. Its average margin of victory is just a tad under 40 points per game.
The Ducks have been a dominant force at Autzen Stadium as usual, already have a decent road win against Texas Tech and look like the team to beat this season. Their upcoming stretch against three opponents currently in the AP Top 25, with two games on the road, will prove if Dan Lanning’s team has the mettle to push for a berth in the College Football Playoff.
2. Washington Huskies (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 2
No Washington fan should consider this ranking a slight against the Huskies in any way. I have been startlingly impressed about how good Oregon has been to start conference play, and Washington could not jump past them with both teams on a bye week.
I still think this offense is more than capable of scoring with the Ducks, but I am not certain that the team’s defense is quite ready to get the big stop when it needs it. The Huskies’ pass defense and run defense is below average by Pac-12 standards in yards per game, and Oregon has the personnel to exploit those weaknesses and turn them into big scoring days.
On the other hand, Washington has not lost a game in its own building since 2021 with 10 consecutive victories. Home field advantage is one of the biggest factors in any big college football matchup, and with the gap this thin between these two teams, it may be the difference between winning and losing.
3. USC Trojans (6-0, 4-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 3
While USC has looked lackluster for three consecutive games now, there is no way I could justify dropping the Trojans below a team that already has a loss on its schedule. That being said, the gap between second and third in these rankings widened over the weekend, not because I saw anything new from Oregon or Washington, but because I watched more USC.
It is one thing to struggle in hostile road environments like Arizona and Colorado and show weaknesses, but it’s another thing entirely to look as sloppy as the Trojans did in their return to the Coliseum. It’s easy to place all the blame upon defensive coordinator Alex Grinch’s defense that failed to get the game-clinching stop in the fourth quarter, but USC fans have come to expect a lot more from this offense than they saw on Saturday.
The Trojan offensive line looked overwhelmed and receivers did not get open, a pretty good recipe for Caleb Williams to complete under 60% of his passes and get sacked four times. USC’s 28 regulation points were its fewest scored in a game Caleb Williams was healthy since September 2022.
Everyone can look at their roster and recognize that the Trojans have talent, but winning a conference championship requires a lot more than that. USC has not played a really strong football game in about a month, begging the question: is this team underperforming, or is this what USC is?
4. Washington State Cougars (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 4
Yes, despite the fact that Washington State – who looked like a Pac-12 dark horse coming into the weekend – lost an ugly game to UCLA, I am keeping the team at four. At the end of the day, the Cougars had built up more equity with me in the leadup to this game to get one mulligan at the Rose Bowl. Their wins against Wisconsin and Oregon State still look solid, and, despite a 17 point showing on Saturday, the offense is still averaging 40 points per game.
If there is one thing that will doom WSU down the stretch if it is not corrected, it would be turnovers. Cam Ward had two awful interceptions last weekend, and the Cougars coughed the ball up twice in the run game. Their nine lost turnovers is the fifth highest in the conference, and was the primary reason they lost the game.
While the turnovers are a concern, a four turnover day for this offense seems like the exception, not the rule, to me. Additionally, despite only converting on two of 13 third down tries against the Bruins, WSU is still tops in the conference in that stat for the season. I see its offensive struggles as a bit flukey, as the team has proven how much better it can be on multiple occasions. I expect them to bounce back in a big way when they take on Arizona.
5. UCLA Bruins (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 8
Through two conference games, it is clear that this UCLA defense is the real deal. So far this season, the Bruins rank third in the conference in scoring defense, first in yards allowed per game and rush yards allowed per game, and tied for first in forced turnovers. It was one thing to have great defensive stats against Nate Johnson’s Utah and a weak non-conference schedule, but holding Cam Ward’s Washington State under 20 points is a remarkable accomplishment.
UCLA’s offense is still not terribly efficient, averaging less than five yards per play against the Cougars. However, this team knows how to stick with a gameplan, control the ball and win the turnover battle, all crucial keys to victory when they face more elite offenses down the stretch. Like Utah, UCLA has one of the few defenses that could possibly slow down the top three teams in the conference. Unlike Utah, the Bruins have a functional enough offense, especially at home, to make their opponents pay for their mistakes. I believe they are slightly better than most give them credit for.
6. Oregon State Beavers (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 5
Beaver fans should be pleased that DJ Uiagalelei showed out against Cal on Saturday night, leading the offense to a 52-point showing. However, in one of the sleepier road atmospheres in the conference, Oregon State should have won by more than 12.
After the Beavers had a strong non-conference run, I expected defense to be the focal point of this football team. In its two Pac-12 road contests, they have allowed an average of 39 points per game. It was particularly disheartening to see Cal of all teams run for nearly 250 yards on this defensive line, which also failed to record a single sack. That is a bad sign for when the team visits Oregon in Eugene on Black Friday, given that the Ducks lead the nation in yards per carry.
7. Utah Utes (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 6
When trying to decipher which of the middle-four teams was the weakest in the conference thus far, I settled on the Utah Utes. Currently, the Utes have the biggest weak point of any of their above opponents: a completely dysfunctional offense. Only Arizona State has scored fewer points per game in the Pac-12, and Utah places dead last in the conference in total offense and passing offense. Without an early pick-six against a true freshman quarterback playing his first road game, it is highly probable that Utah would be 0-2 in conference play already.
Is Utah buried? I would not say so, only because this defense is dominant enough to get this team on a serious run in the second half of the season. That run will not happen with either Nate Johnson or Bryson Barnes, however, and there is no indication of if or when Cam Rising will take the field again.
If their former quarterback returns and this offense plays just average football, the Utes will be scary. However, the team on the field has been below average by the standards of the Pac-12 this season.
8. Arizona Wildcats (3-3, 1-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 9
In the last two weeks, Arizona faced a schedule that would be daunting for some of the top-ranked teams in America: hosting Washington and playing at USC. Yes, the Wildcats lost both of those games, but only by a combined nine points.
Give this Arizona defense all the credit in the world for making Michael Penix and Caleb Williams, two of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy, look like mere mortals. Penix failed to throw a single touchdown pass, while Williams had his lowest completion percentage of the season. Head coach Jedd Fisch is leading a team that is ready to embrace big moments, a recipe for future program success down the road.
This is not to say that all is well in Tucson. The Wildcats still turn the ball over too much, and the Noah Fifita interception on Saturday created the first spark for the Trojans’ comeback victory. I also thought Fisch had opportunities to be more aggressive in his decision making, especially when he elected to kick a game-tying extra point in overtime as opposed to going for the 2-point conversion for the win. As a three-touchdown underdog playing on the road against a top-10 team, Fisch should have played to win instead of playing not to lose.
9. Colorado Buffaloes (4-2, 1-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 7
After squeaking past Arizona State on Saturday, head coach Deion Sanders declared that Colorado played like “hot garbage.” This was not the first time he referred to his team this way. Its issues in the trenches remain significant, as Shedeur Sanders was sacked five times against the Sun Devils, and the Buffaloes averaged less than two yards per rush.
The Buffs appeared back on track in the second half against USC, especially after freshman phenoms Omarion Miller and Cormani McClain had major impacts against a top-10 opponent. That progression seemed short lived, as Miller had just one catch for nine yards and McClain was benched in Tempe.
Shedeur is a great quarterback in the clutch, as evidenced by his game-winning field goal drive with under one minute to go. However, his offense was outgained last weekend by a team quarterbacked by Trenton Bourguet. Colorado is still a team with too many weaknesses on both sides of the ball; I see 6-6 as its ceiling in 2023.
10. Cal Golden Bears (3-3, 1-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 10
Cal may have lost by multiple scores this weekend to Oregon State at home, but I am surprised the Golden Bears had that kind of offensive firepower in them. Unlike the Washington game a few weeks back, most of their 40 points scored came when the game was close; Cal was only down a field goal late in the third quarter.
For a team that everyone knows strives to be run-heavy, the Golden Bears had a surprisingly good ground game, tallying 241 yards on the night and over seven yards per carry. So far in 2023, only Oregon has more rushing yards per game in the Pac-12 than Cal.
While the offense was much-improved from the ASU game a week ago, two key turnovers sunk any chance of a major upset. This is still a team that is not quite disciplined enough to be a factor in this conference, and the Golden Bears’ defense has allowed a combined 111 points in its two big conference tests this season. When a team only does one thing well, it is hard to rank them very highly.
11. Arizona State Sun Devils (1-5, 0-3 Pac-12) | Last Week: 11
Yes, the Sun Devils continue to lose games, but this is not the same team that was shut out by Fresno State at home a month ago. They now have some stability at the quarterback position with Trenton Bourget, who has thrown for almost 700 yards in his two most recent starts.
The USC game got away from them, but they had real opportunities in the fourth quarter to take down both Cal and Colorado. Say what you want about Arizona State’s talent, but that team has not quit on Kenny Dillingham the way I expected them to.
Is ASU going to win many more games this season? Almost certainly not. However, the Sun Devils have shown a lot more life in their conference schedule than this next team.
12. Stanford Cardinal (1-4, 0-3 Pac-12) | Last Week: 12
Stanford enjoyed a bye week last weekend, and, given that both Cal and Arizona State put up respectable efforts in Week 6, there was no reason for me to drop either of those teams. Frankly, I have not seen much from the Cardinal that would indicate they could hang with a team like Oregon State, even at home.
After all, Oregon had no issues keeping Stanford out of the end zone in its most recent home game, and the Cardinal found a way to drop a home contest to Sacramento State. Until it proves otherwise, Stanford is the worst team in the Pac-12.
“Pac-12 Power Rankings” runs every Monday.