After an unforgettable Week 4, the NFL script writers took a week off from football and honed in once more on the saga between Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, this time at MetLife Stadium for Sunday Night Football. While some fans were annoyed with Swift getting the spotlight after every Kelce catch, others were frustrated at the blatant missed calls that led to the Chiefs being “2-0 as Swifties”, according to the NFL Instagram.
All of that is neither here nor there, but you’re here for one reason: to win in fantasy this week. After things seemingly couldn’t get worse following Week 3, I followed up with a dumpster fire of a performance in Week 4. Let’s take a look at where things went wrong:
The Good: Hopefully this is the first and only time that this recap is limited to only one paragraph. My tight end predictions were promising with Evan Engram (TE7) and David Njoku (TE11), but an injury to Luke Musgrave knocked him out in the first quarter, making him finish outside the top 50. With difficult matchups, James Conner and Rhamondre Stevenson busted as predicted, both scoring less than seven points and finishing outside the top 30. Finally, Matt Breida finished as the RB16 last week, leading the Giants in scoring after a poor performance against the Seahawks.
The Bad: Where do I even begin. At the quarterback position, Lamar Jackson proved me wrong, going off against the Browns with four total touchdowns, good enough for him to finish as QB3 last week. On the other hand, Joe Burrow continued his bad start to 2023 with another poor performance, producing just 4.7 fantasy points last week against a weak Titans defense.
Along with Musgrave, injuries hurt me this week, as Javonte Williams finished outside the top 50 for runningbacks after he got hurt during the second drive for the Broncos.
My worst predictions from last Week 4 came at the receiver position. Tutu Atwell, Jakobi Meyers, and Tank Dell all finished outside the top 50 last week, while Marquise Brown and Garrett Wilson both finished inside the top 25.
After last week’s performance, I had to look at myself in the mirror and ponder ways to be better with my predictions. I dedicated twice the time in the lab this week to produce Week 5′s Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em below.
Quarterback
START: Anthony Richardson (IND) vs. TEN Richardson had himself quite the second half last week, bringing the Colts back to force overtime against the Rams and scoring more than 28 points in the process. This week, Richardson faces the divisional rival Titans at home with another great chance to replicate his performance, as the Titans allowed the fourth-most FPPG to quarterbacks last season. Even with Jonathan Taylor potentially being back, I expect Richardson to shred the Titans porous defense, both on the ground and through the air.
SIT: Trevor Lawrence (JAW) @ BUF The Jaguars are playing again in London this week and while they seemingly have the advantage of not having to travel, Lawrence has to face off against a Bills defense who have allowed the fewest FPPG to quarterbacks this season. This defense just held Tua Tagovailoa to less than 14 fantasy points last week, and I expect another poor performance from Lawrence, who has yet to break 18 fantasy points in a game this season. He may turn things around later this season, but this is likely not the week.
Snoozer: Daniel Jones (NYG) @ MIA The Giants’ season is in jeopardy after their humiliating loss on primetime last Monday, and with another tough game against the Dolphins, Daniel Jones needs to do everything in his power to try and come out victorious. I expect the Giants to come out firing against the Dolphins who have allowed the third-most FPPG each of the last two seasons to quarterbacks. With Saquon likely back as well, the field will be open more for Danny Dimes to cook.
Running Back
START: David Montgomery (DET) @ CAR On the other side of the ball, the Lions rush attack has looked like a two-headed monster with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. After missing Week 3 due to injury, Montgomery picked up where he left off in Week 4 with over 30 carries, something unheard of in this day in age. Head Coach Dan Campbell has showed that he wants Montgomery to be the bell cow and against the Panthers who have given up the fourth most FPPG to running backs this season, I expect a big game from Montgomery.
SIT: Miles Sanders (CAR) @ DET The Lions defense has looked elite this season, allowing the least rushing YPG out of any team in the NFL, and with a negative game script for Miles Sanders and the Panthers, I anticipate a dud from Sanders. The Lions have allowed the seventh fewest FPPG to running backs this season and with Sanders’ snap count getting cut into by Chuba Hubbard in Week 4, it might be best to leave him on your bench this week.
START: Alvin Kamara (NO) @ NE Kamara’s return from a three-game suspension last week saw him chart a baffling 33 yards on 13 receptions — the least yards on that reception tally in NFL history. But in PPR leagues, a point is a point, and even if the Saints may not see the performance as a positive, fantasy owners certainly do. He also carried the ball 11 times for 51 yards, meaning more than 50 percent of his 24 total touches came through the air. This role in the Saints’ system creates an extremely high floor for Kamara, so even without a touchdown or another breakout play, he seems like a safe start this week against a middle-of-the-road Pats run defense.
SIT: Zach Moss and Jonathan Taylor (IND) vs. TEN I know that Jonathan Taylor has been a baller in fantasy in recent history but his first week back is not the best time to start him. Jonathan Taylor was just activated off the PUP list this week and is practicing for the first time all season this week and simply put, I don’t trust starting him, especially going against the Titans who have been top 5 in fewest FPPG to running back each of the last two season. With that being said, even if Taylor doesn’t play, I would still advise away from starting Moss — the target and carry share is too unpredictable to rely on either for fantasy production.
Snoozer: Breece Hall (NYJ) @ DEN Breece Hall has been extremely frustrating as a fantasy owner due to his lack of volume, but this is the week I expect things to change. The Jets announced that Hall would no longer be on a snap count and with a great matchup against the Broncos, who have given up the most FPPG to running backs this season, I predict that Hall will eclipse ten fantasy points for the first time since Week 1.
Wide Receiver
START: Puka Nacua (LAR) vs. PHI This might be square but it needs to be said with Cooper Kupp returning from injury this week. Puke Nacua is still the real deal and he should be utilized heavily even with Kupp back and Nacua plays more snaps out wide while Kupp plays more snaps in the slot. As a result, I believe Kupp will supplement Nacua well, especially against an Eagles defense which has given up the fifth most FPPG to receivers this season.
SIT: Jerry Jeudy (DEN) vs. NYJ After looking like Russell Wilson’s go-to target in 2022, Jeudy has been the clear second option behind Courtland Sutton, who has gotten more volume and targets through the first four weeks. Facing the Jets, who have allowed the third fewest FPPG to receivers this season and the fewest last season, I anticipate a weak performance from Jeudy in Week 5.
START: Michael Pittman (IND) vs. TEN After a very weak performance in Week 4 scoring less than five fantasy points, Michael Pittman has a tremendous opportunity to bounce back against a weak Titans secondary that allowed the most FPPG to receivers last season, and are bottom five again this season. Even with the potential return of Jonathan Taylor, I still expect the Colts to throw the ball, yielding for more opportunity for Pittman to score fantasy points.
SIT: Deebo Samuel (SF) vs. DAL This is one might come back to haunt me. After dropping a mere 0.7 fantasy points last week, I anticipate another underwhelming performance from a tough Dallas secondary. Samuel is still nursing his knee and rib injuries and even when he’s fully healthy, he’s still not the main option. The Cowboys have allowed the second fewest FPPG this season to receivers and I wouldn’t be surprised if Samuel has another disappointing performance in Week 5.
Snoozer: Zay Flowers (BAL) @ PIT Zay Flowers has gotten double digit fantasy points in three of his first four games while not seeing the endzone once. His touchdowns will come, and against the Steelers who have allowed the most touchdowns to receivers this season, I predict that Flowers finds the endzone for the first time this season. The Steelers have also allowed the fourth most FPPG to receivers this season, so expect a big day from Flowers in Pittsburgh.
Tight End
START: Darren Waller (NYG) @ MIA This might seem obvious, but Darren Waller has not surpassed six points in either of his last two games and some fantasy managers are panicking. Rest assured, Darren Waller should bounce back this week against a weak Dolphins defense that’s allowed the eighth-most FPPG to tight ends this season. The Giants need to get the ball moving on offense and when did they last do that best? Week 2 against the Cardinals when both Waller and Saquon were utilized to open the field. With Saquon back in Week 5, I anticipate the field to open up more for Waller to finally prove why you drafted him so early on.
SIT: Hunter Henry (NE) vs. NO After two 16+ point performances to open the season, Hunter Henry dropped a dud Week 3 against the Jets — who have allowed the most FPPG to tight ends so far this year — with just 3.7 points. While he somewhat rebounded last week with a 9.1-point performance against Dallas, the inconsistent target share and red zone use could keep Henry from producing against a Saints defense that ranks fourth-lowest in FPPG allowed to the position.
Snoozer: Hayden Hurst (CAR) @ DET After dropping more than 15 points in Week 1, Hayden Hurst has yet to eclipse ten fantasy points over his last three games combined. That’s been horrendous, but it hasn’t necessarily been Hurst’s fault; tough matchups and a switch-up at quarterback will provide that. But now that Bryce Young is back and healthy, Hurst faces a lions defense that’s allowed the second most FPPG to tight ends this season, giving up 35 yards to the backup tight end Josiah Deguara last week. With the Panthers likely throwing the ball a ton, I anticipate a lot of checkdowns from Young as Hurst slots back into his safety valve role from Week 1.
Week 4 Results:
Quarterback
START: Joe Burrow (4.7, QB28)
SIT: Lamar Jackson (28.14, QB3)
Snoozer: Matthew Stafford (16.16, QB16)
Running Back
START: Javonte Williams (3.9, RB51)
SIT: James Conner (6.6, RB36
START: Alexander Mattison (10.8, RB21)
SIT: Rhamondre Stevenson (6.0, RB41
SNOOZER: Matt Breida (12.8, RB16)
Wide Receiver
START: Tutu Atwell (7.4, WR51)
SIT: Marquise Brown (16.6, WR15)
START: Jakobi Meyers (5.3, WR69)
SIT: Garrett Wilson (15.0, WR23)
SNOOZER: Tank Dell (3.9, WR84)
Tight End
START: Evan Engram (12.9, TE7)
SIT: David Njoku (10.6, TE11)
Snoozer: Luke Musgrave (1.1, TE55)