“Pac-12 Power Rankings” is a column by Will Camardella ranking the Pac-12 football teams on a week-to-week basis.
As the contenders in college football’s toughest conference continue the early part of their schedules, two teams have stood out above the rest. Both Oregon and Washington got road conference wins last Saturday, with the Ducks blowing out Stanford and the Huskies winning in Tucson.
Since USC’s defense appears primed for a repeat performance of the end of the 2022 season, I see those two teams as by far the most serious contenders to give the Pac-12 its first College Football Playoff appearance since 2016. Picking the best team right now among those two options is a brutal task, but this is the last chance to speculate. The next game for these opponents will be against each other, after a Week 6 bye.
1. Oregon Ducks (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 2
For this week, the Ducks take the top spot after completely dismantling Stanford on the road.
One of the biggest knocks of Bo Nix throughout his career is that he has trouble winning games on the road. I’ll grant that Stanford Stadium is far from the most hostile atmosphere in the country, but Nix finished his afternoon with four touchdown passes and five incompletions against the Cardinal.
Dan Lanning’s defense has really stood out for Oregon since conference play began. The unit is allowing just six points per game in Pac-12 play, while the second-lowest scoring defense in the conference is at more than twice that number. It has been lethal at the line of scrimmage, ranking seventh in the country in sacks and recording 11 tackles for loss on Saturday.
The Ducks have looked like a well-oiled machine on both sides of the ball for four of their five games this season. I’d have a hard time betting against this group to win the conference right now.
2. Washington Huskies (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 1
Yes, I dropped Washington a spot after struggling more than it should have on the road last Saturday, only beating the unranked Arizona Wildcats 31-24. This is not because I am overly concerned about the team moving forward, but simply because the margin between my top two teams is razor thin.
Arizona entered that game with one objective defensively: limit the explosive pass game of the Huskies. I thought the way Michael Penix Jr. responded to that game plan was extremely effective; he took what the defense gave him and led long, methodical drives that turned into points. Washington only had three full offensive drives in the first half but scored touchdowns on all of them.
I suspect that we will see similar defensive approaches in some of the Huskies’ bigger games down the road, and if so, they will need to do a much better job converting in the red zone. Two solid potential scoring drives in the second half stalled out, with one resulting in a field goal and the other ending on a lost fumble on first and goal. Such missed opportunities gave Arizona the opportunity to hang around and get within one score in the closing minutes of the game.
Against more potent offenses, those failed scoring chances could come back to bite this team.
3. USC Trojans (5-0, 3-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 3
USC may not have moved in my rankings, but the gap between them and my top two teams has significantly widened. I am officially sounding the alarm on this defense.
A game where Caleb Williams throws six touchdown passes and the Trojans accumulate nearly 500 yards of offense should never end in a one-score game. The Buffaloes entered this game with one of the worst rushing offenses in college football, but that didn’t stop them from recording nearly 200 yards on the ground against the USC defense. Colorado scored touchdowns on four of its final five offensive drives, causing a game that was 34-7 to come down to an onside kick.
The Trojan secondary has shown signs of weakness in all five games this season, but Colorado was able to expose it over, and over, and over again, even without Travis Hunter. The Buffaloes had five passing plays of over 20 yards as the USC defensive backs struggled to defend down the field and struggled to tackle. This defense has a much better pass rush than last season’s, but every other aspect of the unit looks as bad, if not worse, than it was a year ago.
The Trojans failed to make the College Football Playoff in 2022 because of the combined 89 points they allowed in their two losses to Utah. After surrendering 41 to a below-average team the week after allowing 28 to one of the worst teams in the conference, the likelihood that a similar outcome takes place is quite high.
4. Washington State Cougars (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12) | Last Week: 5
Washington State was idle this week, but their signature win over Oregon State a week ago looks even better after the Beavers took down Utah. Oregon State’s defense returned to form in that game, making Cam Ward’s monster day that much more impressive.
The Cougars will have their first road conference test next week when they visit UCLA. If this team can show an ability to handle its business away from Pullman, they should absolutely be considered the dark horse to win this conference.
5. Oregon State Beavers (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 6
Oregon State’s offensive output on Friday night won’t light up any stat sheets, but it was enough to get the job done against one of the stingiest defenses in the country. Silas Bolden was the Beavers’ everyman, with over 150 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns.
The strength of this OSU team is its defense, so it was encouraging for that unit to get back on track last weekend. Of the 12 offensive drives Utah had in that game, it failed to eclipse 10 yards of offense on seven of them. The Beavers have a top five rushing defense in the nation, proving it again by holding the Utes to under two yards per carry on 32 attempts.
I am still skeptical that DJ Uiagalelei can go toe-to-toe with the elites at the top of this conference, but this defense has proven good enough to keep Oregon State competitive when it plays its best game.
6. Utah Utes (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 4
To have a chance to three-peat as Pac-12 champions, Utah needed to survive its early slate without Cam Rising in the lineup. On Friday night, its extremely limited offense finally doomed the Utes.
Nate Johnson’s QBR this season is 45.7, good for 91st in the country. In his start against Oregon State, that number was a dismal 9.7 as he completed just over a third of his passing attempts. This Utah offense has been mediocre against weak competition, and unwatchable against some of the conference’s best defenses.
The Beavers knew the Utes could only run the ball, so they loaded the box and held them to less than two yards per carry as a team. You can expect very similar approaches moving forward for as long as Johnson or Bryson Barnes lead this offense.
Utah’s defense is still elite, so much so that they will be in the game with just about any opponent. However, until this team gets its starting quarterback back, defensive touchdowns may be the only way they can outscore any opponent worth its salt.
7. Colorado Buffaloes (3-2, 0-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 8
I had this team dead and buried after getting its doors blown off in Eugene two weeks ago. Colorado’s first half against USC did nothing to change my outlook on them, but, to give credit where credit is due, the team showed a lot of heart in that second-half comeback attempt.
Shedeur Sanders has been as under siege as any quarterback in the sport since the season began, but it has yet to affect his play. His offense wound up out-gaining the highly vaunted Trojan unit, and Sanders got considerably better as the game progressed. I completely agree with Deion Sanders’ sentiment after the game: if that contest was five minutes longer, the Buffs would have beaten a top-10 opponent.
Timetables for Travis Hunter and Shilo Sanders are still unknown, but if those two playmakers on defense return, the Buffaloes could make some noise again as their schedule starts to get easier.
8. UCLA Bruins (3-1, 0-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 7
The Bruins were the other Pac-12 team not to play this weekend, but they will have a big test on Saturday when they welcome Washington State to the Rose Bowl. UCLA’s defense has been great against the run this season, but the Cougars are the first great passing offense that it will face.
If the Bruins fancy themselves a contender in this loaded conference in 2023, Dante Moore will need to show he can exchange scores with the more experienced quarterbacks in the Pac-12. The game environment will be much more favorable to him at home than at Rice-Eccles Stadium, where he lost to Utah 14-7, so this is his time to show that he and his team belong.
9. Arizona Wildcats (3-2, 1-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 9
Credit to the Wildcats, they were the first team this season to make Washington’s offense look mortal. Right now, Arizona is allowing an average of 21 points per game. That is not a mind-blowing rate, but it shows the unit is competent enough to give a fight to the top-tier teams in the Pac-12.
The Wildcats are showing good commitment to the run game and controlling the clock, a must-do when facing Caleb Williams next week. Noah Fifta has done a better job in his two appearances protecting the football than Jayden de Laura has, throwing just one pick compared to de Laura’s conference-leading five.
If the defense continues to limit the big play and stand up well in the red zone, the Wildcats may have an outside shot of pulling off a major upset down the road, as they did at the Rose Bowl in 2022 over UCLA.
10. Cal Golden Bears (3-2, 1-1 Pac-12) | Last Week: 10
Cal will be happy to have taken down Arizona State at home, given that wins will be hard to come by for most of this season. However, squeaking by a weak Sun Devil team won’t be enough for me to raise the Golden Bears’ stock.
This passing offense has a lot of problems, as Sam Jackson V completed just 42% of his passes and had a QBR below 20. Cal needed to rely entirely on its rushing attack to win on Saturday, as it ran the ball over 40 times. Currently, the team is second in the conference in rushing yards per game, but is more towards the middle of the pack in yards per attempt.
The Golden Bears have a consistent attack, but they are not explosive in any real way. That’s an issue, since explosiveness may be the biggest key to being a competitive offense in the Pac-12 this year.
11. Arizona State Sun Devils (1-4, 0-2 Pac-12) | Last Week: 12
After punching above their weight against USC two weeks ago, I anticipated Arizona State to regress back to the mean in games that would be harder to get motivated for. Instead, the Sun Devils competed for a second straight week, having the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to win the game.
It seems as if this team finally has some quarterback stability with Trenton Bourguet, who threw for nearly 400 yards in his first start of the season. Having a weapon like Cam Skattebo helps a lot in that area; he was quiet on the ground but was ASU’s leading receiver with 98 yards.
When the season appeared to be spiraling two weeks ago, Kenny Dillingham gave an impassioned speech about fighting and believing his team can win. The Sun Devils are not going to win very much, but credit to them for putting two straight respectable efforts together.
12. Stanford Cardinal (1-4, 0-3 Pac-12) | Last Week: 11
Most teams in the bottom half of this conference have been able to put up a fight against superior competition when playing on their home turf. Stanford, on the other hand, allowed Oregon to come into its home stadium and wipe the floor with them.
Justin Lamson threw 20 passes and had 22 rush attempts, but was poor at doing both. He only completed 55% of his passing attempts and averaged 1.5 yards per carry. The Cardinal offensive line has not been competitive against any serious competition, and the offense is completely stagnant.
On the other side of the ball, Stanford allows a conference-leading 38 points per game on defense. Its two tough conference games thus far have been over by halftime, and the team can’t even earn wins against the likes of Sacramento State. While Arizona State has begun to compete a lot harder, Stanford has regressed from their Week 1 win every week since. I don’t see another win on the Cardinal’s schedule.
“Pac-12 Power Rankings” runs every Monday.