Explaining the Bears’ nightmare start

It’s only Week 3, yet after a 41-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend that saw the team fall to an 0-3 start, the Chicago Bears have hit rock bottom. In a year that was supposed to be the team’s first competitive season in recent memory, the defense has failed to evolve into the dominant unit head coach Matt Eberflus was hired for, and the offense has regressed to below-NFL-level play.

So, who is to blame? Quarterback Justin Fields? Matt Eberflus? The general manager? When examining the whole Bears process over the last two years, it becomes clear that there is blame to go around at every level of the organization. Let’s take a deep look at the Bears’ entire operation and examine why the team is where it is.

Roster management

After a largely unsuccessful era under former leadership, the Bears hired former Kansas City Chiefs director of player personnel Ryan Poles to be their new general manager in February 2022. Poles came with pedigree, having served in a variety of scouting and executive roles for a Chiefs team that cemented itself as the model NFL franchise in the late 2010s.

Yet, his resumé thus far in Chicago leaves more questions than reasons for excitement. Poles has spent a significant amount of resources to reshape the defense in head coach Matt Eberflus’ image. During his first six months on the job, he let go of All-Pro defensive end Khalil Mack, All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith and the team’s previous sack leader in Robert Quinn, all believed to not fit the team’s new zone-heavy, 4-3 scheme as the franchise entered a rebuild.

He followed that by drafting two raw but dynamic defensive back prospects in Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker with second-round picks in 2022 and breaking the bank to acquire middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds in free agency this past offseason, a rangy weapon who the team believed could unlock Eberflus’ system with his pterodactyl-like coverage skills. Poles reshaped the defense alright, but has it been for the better? Gordon and Brisker have shown promise, but are nowhere close to stars, and Edmunds has not played up to par, leading the unit to rank bottom ten in a plethora of defensive metrics. For the second year in a row, the Bears look to be fielding the worst defense in the league.

On the offensive side of the ball, Poles has worked to build around Justin Fields, refusing to take a quarterback this past draft with the number one overall pick, instead packaging it for future picks and Pro Bowl wide receiver D.J Moore to finally give Fields a true No. 1 option. The team also traded the 32nd overall pick for former Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Chase Claypool, a vertical field stretcher who complements the aggressive downhill style Fields flashed at Ohio State.

Through three weeks so far, however, the offense has failed to take a leap, with Moore not playing like the difference maker the team thought they traded for and Claypool not looking like a player worth a first-round pick. Moreover, even with the addition of a first-round tackle in Tennessee product Darnell Wright, the offensive line looks discombobulated and heavily outmatched, leaving Fields very little time to operate.

Fields has not developed as a passer, with the tape showing amplification of all his issues from last year, occasionally interrupted by a few of the flashes that made every Bears fan get up from their seats. Even with the influx of new talent, Poles’ gambles have not cashed out, and the Bears offense has regressed.

Poles’ process has been understandable. It’s a fact that most (if not all) of his big moves have fallen short. He inherited a roster close to being the worst in the league, and while it’s only been two and a half seasons since his hiring, too little has changed to consider his tenure a success to this point.

Coaching

Mishap roster decisions may be a reason the Bears are fielding such a poor team. But that roster is receiving little help from a coaching staff that has done little to elevate its talent.

Previously the defensive coordinator for a sound Indianapolis Colts defense, Matt Eberflus was hired as the Bears’ head coach to reestablish the dominant defensive identity of previous Bears teams. To this point, he has not even come close, with the team ranking bottom three in total yards and points allowed through three weeks. Fundamentally, this can be explained by Eberflus’ unwavering commitment to the passive style of defense that brought him success in Indianapolis despite it not fitting his current personnel.

Eberflus clearly wants to be conservative, play soft coverage, and allow the offense to make the first mistake — this season the Bears rank first in zone coverage rate and second to last in blitz percentage — yet he simply does not have the personnel to do it. For a defense to be passive it needs stars up front who can stuff the run and pressure the passer with athletes on the back end who can hold up in coverage. The Bears just don’t fit the mold. This year their front ranks bottom ten in rushing yards allowed per attempt and dead last in quarerback hits, and the secondary has allowed 857 yards through the air, third-highest in the league.

Part of the disconnect between personnel and scheme falls on Ryan Poles for not allocating significant resources to the defensive front and missing on the additions to the secondary, yet  Eberflus is also to blame for not adjusting to the personnel he currently has. He should be blitzing and relying on simulated pressures more to create chaos — think Brian Flores with the Miami Dolphins circa 2020 — yet his stubbornness to stick with a conservative style is what’s allowed the Bears to concede over 100 points during their first three weeks.

The offensive unit, led by former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, has not shown much growth either. The Bears rank bottom five in yards per game, second-to-last in passing yards per game and 17th in rushing yards per game, primarily due to offensive architecture and a misunderstanding of the team’s personnel.

The Bears are running a myriad of half-field passing concepts with poor route combinations that don’t give Justin Fields many options to succeed. Furthermore, a lack of frequent play-action play calls and the elimination of the designed QB run game — Fields’ greatest strength as a pro thus far — is forcing the quarterback to play the position on hard mode. Add to this frequent miscommunication along the offensive line and the current offensive environment is simply not up to NFL standards.

Justin Fields

The offensive staff is clearly not fitting the offense to Justin Fields’ strengths, yet the tape also shows he may just not have the ability to lead a team as its franchise quarterback. For all the problems placed on the coaching staff, Fields is showing deficiencies as a passer that do not correlate with starter-level play in the league, particularly in his mechanics, pocket presence and decision-making.

Starting from the ground up, Fields’ mechanics are currently all over the place. The tape shows sloppy footwork and an awkward throwing motion that yields wobbly spirals and creates major accuracy issues, especially in the intermediate level. His pocket presence is also shaky, with his feel for pressure seemingly deteriorating from last year, leading to more sacks and avoidable hits.

These two things could also be attributed to coaching and the offensive system. Fields showcased strong mechanics, was a tremendously accurate passer and displayed a better feel for pressure at Ohio State. Yet the most concerning deficiency he keeps showing is his processing and inability to read defenses.

Even with the poor pass protection, shallow offensive design, and below-average weapons, Fields is seeing the game too slow. His internal clock is delayed to the point where he isn’t showing the ability to get off his first read and execute a multi-progression play call, amplifying his pocket presence and mechanics issues. With as much blame as we’ve ascribed to the coaching staff for its simplistic offensive design, it could also be that Fields’ inability to read defenses requires such a simple approach.

Altogether, Fields’ struggles could be justified by the terrible environment around him, though through three weeks he is showing red flags that do not bode well for his future as a starter. As dynamic as he is as a runner, an NFL quarterback needs to be able to stand calm in the pocket, go through progressions, and deliver the ball with accuracy. Fields simply is not showing the ability to do that. Be it with a new coaching staff in the Windy City or on another team, Fields needs a fresh start where he can rediscover the confidence and ability he displayed at Ohio State.