It’s only Week 4 of the NFL season and the script writers — err, I mean, officials — are already working overtime. Week 3 week featured some unique content with two scorigami’s (a final score that has never happened before: this week it occurred in Miami and Tampa Bay with the final scores 70-20 and 25-11, respectively) to Taylor Swift making an appearance at Arrowhead with Travis Kelce’s family. While the Travis Kelce-Taylor Swift saga is extremely interesting and taking the internet by storm, you’re here for other reasons: to win your fantasy matchup this week.
First, let’s take a look at how I fared last week:
The good: Unfortunately there wasn’t much to be happy about from last week’s picks aside from my quarterback predictions. Kirk Cousins and CJ Stroud balled out as predicted, both finishing in the top 10 for QBs last week. Joe Burrow continued his slow start to the season finishing with 8.16 fantasy points as the QB26.
DeAndre Hopkins busted for the second week in a row, finishing as the WR61, and after making the list as a start last week, Michael Thomas underperformed against a tough Packers secondary, finishing as the WR40.
The bad: After sniping the tight end position in week 2, I airballed this past week. Hayden Hurst (who’s value dropped substantially without Bryce Young) and Dalton Schultz alike had horrible showings, as both tight ends hauled in just one catch and finished outside the top 40 on the week.
With tough matchups against the Cowboys and Titans, I thought that James Conner and Jerome Ford were destined to regress after big performances in Week 2, but they proved me wrong, both finishing as top 10 for RBs on the week.
Finally, Drake London proved that he was a one-week-wonder against the Packers in Week 2 after scoring just 5.1 fantasy points against the Lions in Week 3. Zay Flowers and Elijah Moore – my other 2 starts at receiver – finished the week with pretty mid numbers, dropping 13 and 11.8 fantasy points, respectively.
Enough dwelling on the past (well, if you still want to dwell, my full Week 3 results are posted at the bottom of the article). If you started 0-3 and need a bounce-back week (like me), that’s what I’m here for. Even if you won last week, let’s run hot and continue being victorious. After hours in the lab, here are my Week 4 Starts and Sits of the week, with a few snoozers who are primed for big weeks in case you need streaming options.
Quarterback
START: Joe Burrow (CIN) @ TEN After making this list as a sit and successfully hitting last week, Joe Burrow sees himself on the other end of the stick with a great matchup against the Titans this weekend, who gave up the fourth-most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to QBs last season and are bottom 10 again this year. With a favorable matchup this weekend, I expect Burrow to throw for multiple TDs and eclipse 16 fantasy points for the first time this season.
SIT: Lamar Jackson (BAL) @ CLE This Browns defense is legit. Through three games, the unit has allowed just one touchdown and has yet to defend from inside their own 10. That is pure domination, and I expect Lamar to struggle against a group that allowed the third-fewest FPPG to quarterbacks last season and the fewest this season. If you have another option at QB, I would strongly consider them over Lamar, who’s struggled over his last three starts against the Browns, failing to reach a passer rating above 85.0 all three times.
Snoozer: Matt Stafford (LAR) @ IND Stafford has struggled in his last two outings, throwing two picks in both, yielding weak fantasy performances. But against a Colts defense that’s allowed the fourth-most FPPG to quarterbacks this season and was bottom 12 last season, I anticipate Stafford and the Rams to bounce back after an ugly loss on Monday night to the Bengals. I expect Stafford to take better care of the ball in a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Colts, likely providing a top 15 finish for the veteran.
Running back
START: Javonte Williams (DEN) @ CHI This game is as ugly as it’s going to get. Javonte Williams and the Broncos travel to Chicago after losing by 50 to face the Bears in a game fans are calling the Toilet Bowl. While it may seem silly to start the running back of a team that just lost by 50, Javonte Williams has the potential for a big game against the Bears — with a positive game script for the first time this year, I expect Williams to get fed, especially through the air where the Bears have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to RBs this season.
SIT: James Conner (ARI) vs SF After proving the doubters (me) wrong last week against Dallas with a top 10 running back performance, James Conner faces another extremely difficult rush attack against the 49ers on Sunday night, and I’m willing to bet against him again this week. The Cardinals stunned the world by upsetting the undefeated Cowboys and after such a massive win, I expect regression against a 49ers team that makes very few mistakes behind Brock Purdy and mastermind HC Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers gave up the least FPPG to RBs last season and I expect that defense to shine against Conner and the Cardinals.
START: Alexander Mattison (MIN) @ CAR Alexander Mattison fantasy owners must be relieved after he dropped more than 15 points for the first time all year last week and with a favorable matchup against the Panthers, I expect another big fantasy week from Mattison. While he has yet to reach the end zone on the ground this year, Mattison had four goal-line touches last game. He’s getting the usage, so the touchdowns and volume will eventually come as well, and against the Panthers, who have given up the thirdmost FPPG to running backs this season, I anticipate Mattison reaching the end zone for a big fantasy performance, even with Cam Akers joining the squad.
SIT: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) @ DAL Rhamondre Stevenson has been a very frustrating player in fantasy this season, splitting usage with Ezekiel Elliot, and against a very solid Dallas defense, Stevenson is destined for a dud. The Cowboys gave up the second fewest FPPG to opposing RB last season and are replicating that success this season, allowing the third fewest FPPG. Stevenson gets much of his success through the air, but he may have trouble with that this week as the Cowboys allow the fifth fewest receiving yards to running backs per game. Avoid the frustration and leave Stevenson on your bench this week.
Snoozer: Matt Breida (NYG) vs SEA This pick is contingent on Saquon Barkley’s health, but if he is inactive for Monday night, feel confident slotting Breida in your lineup against a Seahawks team which gave up the fourth-most FPPG to running backs last season and are bottom 10 again this year. Breida played 82 percent of snaps in Week 3 and got three targets, proving he is the featured back while Saquon nurses his injury. With a positive matchup against the Seahawks, I’d feel confident with Breida in my lineup if Saquon is hurt and you need a streamer option for the week.
Wide receiver
START: Tutu Atwell (LAR) @ IND Tutu Atwell has subtly dropped 15 points in every game this season, and with a great matchup against the Colts, I don’t see anything changing this week. The Colts have allowed the seventh-most FPPG to opposing receivers this season and I anticipate a big bounce-back performance this week from the Rams offense, headlined by Atwell. The Bengals seemed to control Puka Nacua last week and I expect the Colts to try and do the same, yielding more targets for Atwell, who already gets eight targets a game as it is. The volume is there, and with a good game script against the Colts, expect a big game from Atwell.
SIT: Marquise Brown (ARI) @ SF Marquise Brown has proved to be reliable in fantasy, dropping 17 points in each of the last two weeks, good enough to make him WR15 over that span. However, Brown is getting much of his production from the long ball, scoring two touchdowns over that span as well. The 49ers have yet to allow a receiver to reach the end zone this season and I don’t anticipate Brown changing that on Sunday – and if Brown doesn’t reach the endzone, his fantasy value decreases substantially. I foresee regression from both the Cardinals offense and Brown this game against a lethal 49ers defense.
START: Jakobi Meyers (LV) @ LAC The Raiders need to figure things out after losing last week’s contest to the Steelers thanks in part to a coaching blunder from Josh McDaniels. Josh Jacobs looks like a shell of his former self, yet the Raiders offense still looks somewhat efficient behind Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams. But one player is getting overshadowed in this offense, and that’s Jakobi Meyers. Meyers has seen double-digit targets in both games he’s played in this season, and with the Chargers defense likely draped over Adams the entire game, I expect a big day from Meyers against a team that has allowed the most FPPG to opposing receivers this season.
SIT: Garrett Wilson (NYJ) vs. KC This one is simple: I can’t trust anyone on the Jets with Zach Wilson under center. Wilson has put together three decent fantasy weeks thus far, but he got carried the first two weeks behind receiving touchdowns. With the Chiefs defense giving up the sixthfewest FPPG to opposing receivers this season, I anticipate another dry day from the Jets offense and more frustration from Garrett Wilson on the sideline.
Snoozer: Tank Dell (HOU) vs. PIT The rookie from Houston University is turning heads these past two weeks and his potential is only increasing. Tank Dell has led the Texans in targets since Week 1 – cumulating more than 20 FPPG, enough to make him WR7 over that span, better than the likes of Ceedee Lamb, JaMarr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Houston has proven they trust CJ Stroud to throw the ball, and as that continues, Dell’s fantasy ceiling is only going to rise. Facing the Steelers, who have allowed the fifth-most FPPG to opposing receivers this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dell puts up another 20-piece.
Tight End
START: Evan Engram (JAX) vs ATL The Jaguars have looked underwhelming to start the season and will look to get back on track overseas in London against the Falcons. Inheriting London soil as home turf, the Jaguars host the Falcons who were bottom 10 in FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends last season and are fourth-worst to open this season. With Evan Engram already having success in London, scoring a touchdown with 55 yards last season, I anticipate another big game from the tight end as the Jaguars aim to get back to .500.
SIT: David Njoku (CLE) vs BAL The Ravens have silenced opposing tight ends so far this season, allowing just 4.2 FPPG. While this is only a three game sample, the Ravens were top 10 in fewest FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends last season as well, proving their success against the tight end position is no fluke. Njoku has only had 11 targets in three games this season and with a difficult matchup against the Ravens, I wouldn’t be surprised if Njoku took a step back this week.
Snoozer: Luke Musgrave (GB) vs DET This might be my favorite pick of the week. In just his fourth week as a rookie, Musgrave is already second on the team in targets, running 86 percent of tight end routes. His upside is going to start coming, and against a Lions defense which allows 12 targets per game and the most FPPG to opposing tight ends this season, I anticipate this being the game that puts Luke Musgrave on the fantasy map.
Week 3 Results
QB
Start: Kirk Cousins (25.68, QB5)
Sit: Joe Burrow (8.16, QB26)
Snoozer: CJ Stroud (20.6, QB10)
RB
Start: Isiah Pacheco (15.8, RB12)
Sit: James Conner (19.6, RB6)
Start: Breece Hall (3.7, RB54)
Sit: Jerome Ford (19.1, RB7)
Snoozer: Jaylen Warren (8.2, RB29)
WR
Start: Zay Flowers (13.0 WR35)
Sit: Michael Thomas (11.0, WR40)
Start: Drake London (5.1, WR79)
Sit: DeAndre Hopkins (7.8, WR61)
Snoozer: Elijah Moore (11.8, WR37)
TE
Start: Hayden Hurst (2.1, TE43)
Sit: Kyle Pitts (8.7, TE15)
Snoozer: Dalton Schultz (1.9, TE49)