With Donald Trump notably absent from the stage, tonight’s GOP debate promises a battleground where aspiring Republican frontrunners will vie for a brighter national spotlight. Their objective is clear but daunting: emerge as a credible alternative to Trump.
“The party is divided. The Trump faction and non-Trump faction are at a crossroads,” said Arnon Mishkin, director of Fox News Election Desk and fellow at the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future.
While Trump’s national polling numbers hover over 60%, he’s been less dominant in key states. And as the current Republican frontrunner sits out this debate, an opening exists for alternative voices within a fractured GOP.
Candidates like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy now have a chance to carve out a distinct ideological space to become a figurehead among the establishment and populist wings of the party. Tonight’s debate serves as their proving ground.
Mishkin sees the contest as a multifront war between three factions of the Republican party: the MAGA group, populists and the establishment— the traditional wing of the party.
“Trump’s national polling has been above 60% recently, but statewide figures have been less flattering, lingering under 50%. It opens the door for an alternative candidate to gain momentum,” says Mishkin.
According to Mishkin, Haley has become the candidate to watch among the more traditional Republicans. “She’s planning to kick out Mike Pence and Tim Scott, score big in Iowa, then march into New Hampshire as the establishment’s top contender,” Mishkin said.
Recent statewide polling bolsters this, showing Haley as a rising star amongst the non-Trump electorate. Her strategy? Sell herself as a unifying figure, much like Joe Biden did in 2020.
“Republicans are looking for an alternative to Donald Trump while carrying conservative policies forward. Not only is she a more traditional Republican, but she understands other factions of the base, having been Trump’s U.N. Ambassador. This is her opportunity,” said Mishkin.
On the other end stands Vivek Ramaswamy, a fast-talking, quick-thinking populist outsider who has garnered more attention, especially as the target of many attacks during the last debate. Mishkin points out that while pundits didn’t necessarily think Ramaswamy did well during the first Republican debate, many GOP voters really liked him for his confrontational, combative style, giving him significant momentum that cannot be ignored.
Ron DeSantis, once thought to be the clear alternative to Donald Trump, now faces a precarious path after slipping a few times on the campaign trail.
“There’s an old adage: he who runs for office because the polls say he should win, will ultimately lose,” said Mishkin, “It seems he thought he was coasting. Now, I think he needs to be a little more aggressive and highlight his conservative successes in Florida to reclaim lost ground and show everyone why the party really likes him.”
And for former Vice President Mike Pence, Mishkin thinks it might be time he addresses the elephant in the room: January 6th.
“Mike Pence should confront the elephant in the room, which is that a lot of Republicans are angry with him when he didn’t turn the 2020 election votes back to the states. He has to figure out a way to explain that. And showcase that his positions are really close to everything Donald Trump did as President, and everything that Republicans stand for: low taxes, strong national defense, right to life,” Mishkin explained.
An underlying narrative is also at play: Who among the contenders will successfully brand themselves as the next Ronald Reagan? The debate’s location at the Reagan National Library is far from incidental— it serves as a backdrop highlighting Reagan’s pivotal role in shaping modern establishment conservatism.
Whether the debate will yield a leader who can unite fractured factions remains uncertain. But in a volatile primary, Mishkin said “Trump might be the favorite, but that doesn’t mean the game is over.”