As the first week of the NFL season comes to a close, plenty can be learned from the first slate of games. While delusional Cowboys fans will say “This is our year!” (for the 12th year in a row) after handling the Giants 40-0 on Sunday Night Football, other teams like the Bills and Bengals have serious cause for concern after poor QB play in their season openers.
While this chatter is fun and justified to an extent, let’s not overreact: it’s still only Week 1. Players like Jordan Love and Mac Jones aren’t gonna finish as top fantasy quarterbacks, and the Cowboys defense won’t put up 30+ points every week (though they may when they play the Giants again). With all this to keep in mind, let’s take a look at how last week’s Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em fared, starting first with the good:
I picked Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson as a snoozer in his debut against the Jaguars and he did not disappoint, dropping more than 20 fantasy points thanks to 223 passing yards and two total touchdowns, leading him to QB4 on the week. Commanders running back Brian Robinson was also a snoozer, and while he didn’t get much going on the ground, he did haul in a touchdown grab that brought him to 13.6 fantasy points, placing him at RB15. On the contrary, Najee Harris busted as predicted against a tough San Francisco front, cumulating just 5.3 fantasy points and finishing as RB44. Similarly, DJ Moore was held to just two catches against a difficult Packers secondary, where Jaire Alexander described Moore’s fantasy performance perfectly postgame: “Yeah, it was real quiet for him. I don’t know if anybody thought anything else was gonna happen”.
While some of my picks were spot on, others certainly were not. I thought that Geno Smith was going to feast against a weak Rams secondary, where in actuality he settled for a mere 112 yards. Christian Kirk was expected to cook after torching the Colts D with three touchdowns last year, however, this year he forgot to even show up to the stadium, grabbing just one catch for less than two fantasy points, finishing as the whopping WR95. While Marvin Mims Jr. was picked as a snoozer against the Raiders, he certainly disappointed too, finishing just better than Kirk as the WR91. Finally, Cole Kmet proved me wrong with my prediction as he finished the overall TE6 after scoring most of his points in garbage time in the fourth quarter.
You can find a full recap of how my picks performed last week at the bottom of this page. Now let’s look forward to Week 2 with some players you should start and sit in fantasy, being mindful of overreactions following the first week of NFL games.
Quarterback
START: Daniel Jones (NYG) @ ARI After arguably one of the worst losses in franchise history, the Giants travel to Arizona in a favorable matchup against the Cardinals. With such a bad loss to open the season, I expect Brian Daboll to come out firing, particularly on offense against a Cardinals defense that has lots of holes and allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing QBs last season. With Jones’ rushing upside, I like his matchup even more, as I expect the Giants offense to utilize him in the run game heavily just like they did in the opening drive against the Cowboys, where Jones had 26 rushing yards before the Cowboys blocked and returned a field goal attempt for a touchdown.
SIT: Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. NYJ Dak Prescott didn’t have to do much in Sunday’s historic victory against the Giants, where the Cowboys took care of business 40-0 giving the Giants their worst home shutout in franchise history. In fact, Prescott only passed for 140 yards to get the victory, amassing just 6.3 fantasy points in the process. After not playing much meaningful time against the Giants, Prescott now has to face a top secondary in the NFL in the New York Jets. After not getting many reps due to a blowout victory last week, I suspect Prescott to start off slow against a Jets defense that allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season.
Snoozer: Mac Jones (NE) vs. MIA Mac Jones sneakily had himself a week in fantasy against the Eagles, finishing as the overall QB2 behind his Week 2 opponent, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. With another favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing QBs last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones replicated his performance from last week. Even if the Dolphins go up big in this game, Jones will still be forced to throw the ball a ton, hopefully translating into another sneaky-good fantasy day for Jones.
Running back
START: James Cook (BUF) vs. LV After making this list as a sit last week, James Cook has re-entered the list, this time as a start candidate and one who is prime to break out. After the Bills lost on Monday night to the Rodger-less Jets behind four turnovers from Josh Allen, I expect the Bills to get back to the fundamentals and pound the football with Cook against a Raiders squad that gave up the seventh most points to running backs last year. With six targets as well in Week 1, I expect Cook to be heavily involved in both the run and pass game, giving him the potential for RB1 overall on the week.
SIT: Joe Mixon (CIN) vs. BAL Everyone’s going to hate me for this one, but this is just a gut feeling. After the Bengals offense got shut down by the Browns in Week 1 behind a mere 82 passing yards from Joe Burrow, I expect Zach Taylor to get the offense rolling early behind what they rely on most: Joe Burrow’s arm. While Mixon is an integral asset on offense, the Bengals thrive most in the passing game behind Burrow, Chase, and Higgins. Across two games last season against the Ravens, Mixon had just 105 rushing yards, and I expect a similar performance out of him on Sunday in a gritty divisional showdown against the Ravens — who allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last season.
START: David Montgomery (DET) vs. SEA Dan Campbell and the Lions showed in Week 1 that they are here to play this season, defeating the defending champ Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead. While all the fantasy buzz is on fellow running back Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery tallied 21 carries in Week 1 compared to Gibbs’ seven, and I expect this workload to continue as the Lions slowly ease Gibbs into his role as a rookie. Montgomery is only started in 44 percent of leagues (ESPN), and if he’s on your squad this week, he should be starting against a Seahawks squad that gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs last season.
SIT: Cam Akers (LAR) vs. SF I feel like this one should be obvious, yet at this point, Akers is started in more ESPN leagues than David Montgomery! Akers and the Rams host the 49ers in a divisional matchup that has Akers going against the top-ranked rush defense in the league. After holding Najee Harris to just 31 yards, I expect the 49ers to do the same to the Rams rush attack, which was split between Akers and Kyren Williams last week. While Akers seemed to have a mediocre fantasy day, Williams out-carried Akers until garbage time when Akers took 11 of the last 12 carries to conclude the game. Knowing his inefficiency from Week 1 (22 carries for 29 yards), I expect Akers to have another inefficient game against the 49ers, likely one of his last in a Rams uniform.
Snoozer: Tyler Allgeier (ATL) vs. GB This is another situation similar to David Montgomery — a talented back behind a very talented back. While all the hype surrounds top draft pick Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier had himself quite the performance in Week 1, carrying the ball 15 times for two touchdowns, good for over 24 fantasy points, landing him at RB4. In a game against the Packers, who boast an elite secondary but are lacking against the run (allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs last year), I expect the Falcons to pound therock, and I expect Allgeier to get his turn just as he did Week 1. If he’s available in your league, be sure to snap him up quick, as his ownership share increased by over 31 percent in ESPN leagues this week.
For more on Allgeier’s Week 1 performance, check out this piece by TOT’s Felipe Londoño on five breakout performers from the NFL’s opening weekend.
Wide receiver
START: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) @ LAR After a WR1 performance in Week 1, Aiyuk has a chance to keep the momentum going with a great matchup against a poor Rams secondary. While Geno failed against this secondary last week, I believe Brock Purdy will exploit the Rams behind a big day from Aiyuk, his favorite target. Over his last four games with Purdy under center, Aiyuk is averaging over six receptions and 92 yards per game, with three touchdowns in that span. I expect another big day for Aiyuk, so don’t make the mistake of leaving him on your bench again.
SIT: DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) vs. LAC DeAndre Hopkins turned back the clock in Week 1, proving right all the fantasy owners that took a risk on him with 13.5 fantasy points on seven receptions. While the volume was certainly there, Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw the ball more than 34 times last week, just the fifth time he’s done so since the start of 2022. That type of volume is not destined to stay, giving Hopkins a tough matchup against a deceptively good Chargers secondary. While Tyreek torched the Bolts secondary in week one, I anticipate a bounce-back performance against the Titans and Ryan Tannehill, yielding a weaker performance for DeAndre Hopkins.
START: Mike Williams (LAC) @ TEN Forget Hopkins — Mike Williams is the player you’ll want to start from this week’s matchup in the Music City. After a disappointing first game of only four receptions for 45 yards, Williams and the Chargers play a Titans defense that gave the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers of any team last season. Williams should be a matchup nightmare to the Titans, as his 6-foot-4 frame stands substantially taller than any member of the Titans’ secondary, who all check in at 6-foot or below (nothing personal — I still have love for you short kings). I expect Herbert to utilize all of Williams’ height in a bounce-back game for the Chargers, leading to a big fantasy day for Williams.
TOT Chargers correspondent Ben Cohen discussed the Chargers-Titans matchup this Sunday in further detail in a preview released earlier this week.
SIT: Terry McLaurin (WSH) @ DEN I feel horrible for Terry McLaurin. The man has not had a competent quarterback his entire career, and it doesn’t get much better with Sam Howell under center for the Commanders. We saw it in Week 1 when McLaurin had just two catches on four targets, and I anticipate another slow performance from him while Howell gets adjusted to the offense. The Broncos pose a tough matchup for McLaurin, giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last year. His name may be enticing to start, but he would be best off on your bench this week.
Snoozer: Michael Thomas (NO) @ CAR Michael Thomas showed flashes of his former OPOY-self on Sunday, catching five passes for 61 yards on eight targets from quarterback Derek Carr. I hate to buy into Thomas again. He’s let me down too many times. But he finally looks healthy again, and I think he and Olave can both finish top-20 at the end of the season with Carr under center. Even though the Panthers gave up the fewest points to wide receivers last week (keep in mind they did play the Falcons, a run-heavy offense that threw the ball less than 20 times), they gave up the fifth-most points to the position last year, and this week they’ll play without their best cornerback in Jaycee Horn. I expect a big game from Thomas on Monday night.
Tight end
START: Sam LaPorta (DET) vs. SEA Sam LaPorta had a good debut on Thursday night, hauling in five of his six targets, good enough to make him TE8 for Week 1. As the Lions welcome the Seahawks to Ford Field, LaPorta welcomes an even better matchup against the team that gave up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season. Dan Campbell likes utilizing his tight ends in the passing game — we saw it with TJ Hockenson before he got traded — and with LaPorta getting six targets in Week 1, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the beginning of a major role for LaPorta. He’s arguably a strong candidate for a breakout season, but at least for this week’s matchup against the Seahawks, you’d be a fool to leave him on the bench.
SIT: Pat Freiermuth (PIT) vs. CLE The Steelers offense couldn’t string anything together against the 49ers on Sunday, but fortunately, they have a much better matchup against the Browns at home in Week 2. However, Pat Freiermuth faces a tough matchup against a Browns defense that only allowed two touchdowns to opposing tight ends all of last season. In his career against the Browns, Freiermuth is averaging less than three catches and 27 yards per game, and with a small likelihood that Freiermuth reaches the endzone on Monday night, I suspect a weak performance from the tight end from Happy Valley.
Snoozer: Hunter Henry (NE) vs. MIA Hunter Henry looked like Mac Jones’ most reliable target behind Kendrick Bourne on Sunday, hauling in five catches on six targets for 56 yards and a touchdown. Jones favored Henry heavily over new acquisition Mike Gesicki, and with a matchup against the Dolphins who gave up the fourth most points to opposing tight ends last season, I expect Jones to once again target Henry in a game where the Patriots will likely throw the ball a ton to keep up with the Dolphins high-powered offense. Expect another day of 10+ points for Henry, who is currently started in only one percent of ESPN leagues.
Logan’s Week 1 Results
QB
Start: Geno Smith (9.08, QB23)
Sit: Aaron Rodgers (0.0, QB34)
Snoozer: Anthony Richardson (20.92, QB4)
RB
Start: Cam Akers (8.9, RB33)
Start: Miles Sanders (11.8, RB21)
Sit: Najee Harris (5.3, RB44)
Sit: James Cook (10.3, RB27)
Snoozer: Brian Robinson (13.6, RB15)
WR
Start: Chris Godwin (10.1, WR40)
Start: Christian Kirk (1.9, WR95)
Sit: Marquise Brown (8.7, WR48)
Sit: DJ Moore (4.5, WR74)
Snoozer: Marvin Mims (2.9, WR91)
TE
Start: Tyler Higbee (7.9 TE14)
Sit: Cole Kmet (9.4 TE6)
Snoozer: Dalton Kincaid (6.6, TE18)