It’s finally here: the beginning of football season—and thus, fantasy football season. Buckle up, because this year’s going to be a good one. With new faces in new threads all across the league from the new rookies to the old vets, the NFL is ready to kick off on Thursday night with the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs and the forever irrelevant (but hopefully not irrelevant anymore) Detroit Lions. With the first week underway, let’s take a look at some of the players I like to start the season and others I wouldn’t risk in my Week 1 Edition of Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em (with a few snoozers in there if you’re feeling extra doozy).
Quarterback
START: Geno Smith (SEA) vs. LAR After getting his opportunity to start in the NFL for the first time since 2014 last season, Geno Smith did not fail to leave his mark, throwing for over 4,000 yards while amassing the fifth most fantasy points amongst quarterbacks. After his improbable season, fantasy projections have him ranked between 12 and 15 among other quarterbacks.
The slander is laughable. Smith opens his 2023 fantasy campaign with a highly favorable matchup against a Rams secondary that took a massive hit trading Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins. With rookie receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba trending towards playing in the opener, I expect Smith to pick apart the Rams defense for a big fantasy performance.
SIT: Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) vs. BUF After leaving Green Bay and joining the Jets in the offseason, the entire football community is eager to see how Rodgers fares wearing a different shade of green. Unfortunately, he’s put to the test against the Bills in his first matchup, a defense that allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season. With the Jets newly acquiring Dalvin Cook, I expect the Jets to pound the ball downfield and work the clock to keep the Bills offense on the sideline, spelling the potential for a below-average game from Rodgers.
Snoozer: Anthony Richardson (IND) vs. JAX Don’t hate me for buying into the hype. Richardson has received a ton of attention going into this season behind seemingly low expectations with a Colts squad that has just one returning offensive player with more than 1,000 scrimmage yards. With that being said, Richardson will likely have to create some magic to produce offense for his team, but I think against the Jaguars, who gave up the 9th most points to opposing quarterbacks in fantasy last season, he could do just that. This prediction might be square, but I believe in the rookie from Florida.
Running back
START: Cam Akers (LAR) @ SEA I know how Cam Akers fantasy owners feel after last year. Trust me. I was one of them. But after coming off injury and finishing the last 6 weeks of the regular season top 5 in fantasy points per game for running backs, Akers is primed for another big season. Going up against the Seahawks, who gave up the 4th most points to opposing running backs in fantasy last year, I expect Akers to be utilized a ton by the Rams, especially with Cooper Kupp likely out the first week.
SIT: James Cook (BUF) @ NYJ After gaining the starting role in his second season, fantasy owners have a high outlook on James Cook going into 2023. However, with a Monday night showdown against the Jets, a top-12 defense against opposing running backs in fantasy, I expect the Bills to come out firing on offense under the lights, relying heavily on the pass. Even if Cook gets a favorable workload, against a strong Jets defensive line, it’ll be tough for Cook to thrive in his first fantasy matchup unless he rips off a touchdown. The Bills also added Damien Harris to their backfield this off-season, a man who’s just two years removed from a 900-yard season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he eats into Cook’s workload on Monday as well.
START: Brian Robinson (WAS) vs. ARZ Brian Robinson turned into a cowbell back for the Commanders at the end of last year, accumulating more than 15 carries in 6 of his last 7 games. As question marks riddled the Commanders’ QB room all season, Washington will likely have to rely on their workhorse running back to open the season. With a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, who gave up the second most points to running backs last season, I expect Robinson to get fed early and often.
SIT: Najee Harris (PIT) vs. SF Najee Harris and the Steelers offense look to continue on the momentum built from late-season success provided by Kenny Pickett in 2022. Unfortunately for Harris, his first matchup in the new season couldn’t be any worse as he faces the 49ers defense which boasted the least amount of points against opposing fantasy running backs. In a game where the Steelers need to establish the passing game to win, I expect Pickett to throw the ball a lot, eliminating touches from Harris on the ground.
Snoozer: Miles Sanders (CAR) After a comeback 2022 fantasy season, Sanders welcomed a change of scenery with the Panthers and rookie quarterback Bryce Young this offseason, and I expect him to pick up where he left off with his new squad. Young relied heavily on his running backs at Alabama with Brian Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs while he was there, and until Young feels confident throwing the ball downfield, I expect him to check down and feed Sanders heavily.
Wide receiver
START: Chris Godwin (TB) @ MIN Tampa Bay’s offense took a historically bad downgrade after Tom Brady retired this offseason, replaced under center with former number-one overall pick Baker Mayfield. While Mayfield is just a shell of his former Heisman self, Godwin should have an opportunity to feast against the Vikings secondary who gave up the second most fantasy points to wide receivers last year. In what will most likely be an offensive showcase, Mayfield and the Bucs will be forced to air the ball out to Godwin and Mike Evans to compete with Minnesota’s high-powered offense. I think Godwin has a slight edge here, as Mayfield likes to throw the ball mid-range and short, and that’s where Godwin thrives.
SIT: Marquise Brown (ARZ) vs. WAS Marquise Brown enters this season the number one target for a Cardinals offense that parted ways with DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason; however, Brown will have journeyman Josh Dobbs throwing him the ball. In games without Kyler Murray last year, Brown averaged just 7.1 fantasy points per game. Facing the Commanders, a team who bolstered its secondary with its first two draft picks, Brown will have an uphill battle as he matches up against the team that gave up the 13th fewest fantasy points per game to receivers last year. If you had any hesitation to start Marquise Brown, use this as your sign to leave him on your bench come Sunday.
START: Christian Kirk (JAX) vs. IND The Jags offense drew a lot of buzz this offseason with the acquisition of Calvin Ridley and the expectation that Trevor Lawrence will take a step forward going into his second season in Doug Pederson’s system. With an opening matchup against divisional rival Indianapolis Colts, the Jaguars offense will come out firing, proving why they are the favorites to win the AFC South. In last year’s two contests against the Colts, Kirk put up over 100 yards combined with three touchdowns for a banner 20+ point day. While the addition of Ridley will undoubtedly take away looks from Kirk, I expect him to cook again against a Colts secondary who recently took a step back after losing the likes of cornerback Stephon Gilmore in the offseason.
SIT: DJ Moore (CHI) vs. GB DJ Moore joined a Bears squad in the offseason that has high expectations to improve upon its 3-14 season in 2022 behind third-year quarterback Justin Fields. In a crowded receiver room alongside Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool, it’s unknown exactly what Moore’s role will look like in Chicago’s offense in their home opener. He could be in the spotlight early and have a productive fantasy week, but the Bears could also look to establish the run game against a tough Packers defense that allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last year. I think Moore is a risky choice for a WR1 or WR2 spot this week, and only merits flex consideration.
Snoozer: Marvin Mims (DEN) vs. LV This call is a shot in the dark, but it very well may strike if Denver wide receiver Jerry Jeudy is out on Sunday with a hamstring injury, which is looking very possible after head coach Sean Payton placed him on “limited participation” for Wednesday’s practice. The Broncos square off against a Raiders secondary which is bottom 5 in the league, giving Mims the potential to break out in Jeudy’s absence. Mims is rostered in 15% of leagues (ESPN), so if you’re looking for a WR stream to fill a gap in your lineup, Mims could be a good pickup if Jeudy is still questionable come Sunday.
Tight end
START: Tyler Higbee (LAR) @ SEA After concluding 2022 on a horrible note offensively, the Rams come into 2023 looking for a fresh start with quarterback Matthew Stafford healthy again. With Cooper Kupp likely sidelined against the Seahawks, I expect Stafford to rely heavily on Higbee, one of his favorite targets since Stafford joined the Rams three seasons ago. Matching up against the Seahawks, who give up the second most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, I believe Higbee should put together a solid stat line as Stafford’s potential main target through the air.
SIT: Cole Kmet (CHI) vs. GB The Packers gave up the sixth least points to opposing tight ends per game last season and I expect a similar script to open this season, as the Bears will likely prioritize the run and work the ball downfield to work the clock in a key divisional matchup. With Fields at quarterback, Kmet has averaged just 6.7 fantasy points against the Packers, and I’m expecting another flop this week.
Snoozer: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) @ NYJ The Bills already had a viable option at tight end with Dawson Knox entering 2023, but they saw something in Utah product Dalton Kincaid worthy of the 25th pick. Josh Allen has been needing a big reliable target to throw to and Kincaid could fill that void, as he had three games last season with over 100 yards and two with multiple touchdowns. I expect the Bills to utilize Kincaid often in their opener, especially against a Jets defense that allowed the ninth most points to opposing fantasy tight ends per game last season.