There’s one smokescreen over the fantasy football landscape that is so dark and thick that looking past it takes years of experience and a strong will: last season’s results.
Obviously analyzing how players performed last season is a key indicator of their abilities. In some cases, players that outperformed expectations last season can and should be drafted accordingly.
But that applies to the players I mentioned as “league winners,” such as rookies, role players and players in good offenses, not the players I’m mentioning today.
These players to avoid have their draft stock boosted by last season’s performance, yet in reality, other factors — age, new teammates or rookies looking to increase their role — will result in an underwhelming year considering where they were drafted. Here are three types of players you should avoid at all costs this year in fantasy football.
Big Contract Recipients
When a player receives a large contract in the offseason, it means their previous deal was coming to an end last season, and they needed to up their game in order to convince a team to sign them for next year.
This typically leads to a strong season filled with skepticism by experts whether or not a deal is beneficial for a team. However, by the offseason, a general manager rewards the player.
But when it comes to skill position players — specifically running backs — the experts tend to be right. Once a player gets paid, their motive to prove their worth fades. They just want to stay healthy and be good enough to have a roster spot for the remainder of their contract. No more risking it all for one season. One injury can completely change the trajectory of their career, so they focus on longevity.
The reason being is age. A running back’s best years are his first few. The big contract they receive is after four or five seasons in the league, meaning they are in the back half of their 20s once they get paid. Those ages signal the end of a player’s peak performance, and only the best running backs remain on rosters past the big 3-0.
Just look at what happened to Ezekiel Elliott. Got paid after a strong season, saw a decline after his big contract, got hurt and is currently a free agent at age 27. Same goes for Dalvin Cook. This trend is nowhere near something new, and seeing two big running back deals in this year’s free agent class raises my eyebrows.
Josh Jacobs just turned 25 and signed a four-year deal after a stellar season. Saquon Barkley is 26 and should do the same. But last season’s performance aside, Barkley has been prone to injury, and Jacobs was rumored to be on his way out before his career year. I’d be careful seeing either of these guys in early rounds and hoping they can repeat their success this year.
Old Receiver, Young Quarterback
This one works a bit differently than the previous category, but the same smokescreen applies. Last year, a receiver played very well despite a poor offense, and a young quarterback kick-starts a rebuild that could mean high upside for the star pass catcher.
At least, that’s what should happen, not what actually happens.
In reality, the rebuild tends to diminish the wide receiver’s role in the offense. The team will also bring in younger skill position players to aid the QB’s development and build the roster for the future.
I fell for this two seasons ago, when Allen Robinson got a supposed upgrade with Justin Fields at quarterback. I was confident Fields would help Robinson have a top 10 season, but it was the exact opposite.
Robinson was arguably the biggest bust of 2021, and out of my lineup altogether by the middle of the year. His role in the offense was diminished, with young receivers like Darnell Mooney seeing an uptick in targets.
Robinson is now on the Steelers, who have a young quarterback in Kenny Pickett. Despite not scoring a touchdown last season, Diontae Johnson put together a solid campaign last year. But be wary of a revival from Johnson with a more-developed Pickett at the helm; second-year receiver George Pickens was drafted for the future, and the Pickett-Pickens connection is the one to target in the Steelers offense.
Middle of the Pack Quarterbacks
I’ve been an advocate for taking one of the big three quarterbacks in drafts, contrary to what experts may say. They say to wait on your quarterback, but the best value is from the top.
However when I say “the top” I only mean three, maybe four players: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. In the event your draft isn’t going as planned, and you miss out on those players, it’s best to wait on a quarterback.
The reason being is that middle of the pack quarterbacks are a high risk, low reward move. Those players will be available in a crucial part in drafts, where skill position players with high upside start flying off of the board.
Instead of settling for the sixth- or seventh-best quarterback, take a chance on a player with a chance to be a weekly starter at another position.
In leagues with only one quarterback starter, most managers will only pick up one quarterback in the draft and leave over half of league starters on the waiver wire. After missing out on a top player, you will have your pick of the rest at the end of drafts. Last season, Geno Smith was a top 10 quarterback that went undrafted in most fantasy leagues. There will always be time to find a quarterback, and unless it’s in the top three, don’t look towards last year to find one early in the draft.
ESPN’s rankings have Justin Fields, Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson at 6-8, respectively. Let someone else in your league make the mistake of taking them while you get the high-upside flex players they pass on. Instead of those three, look towards bounce-back years from Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers, who will be available come the late rounds of the draft.
“Fantasy Fridays” is a column by Michael Fiumefreddo about fantasy football draft prep that runs every Friday.