Fantasy Fridays: Three lies fantasy experts tell you each year

“Fantasy Fridays” is a column by Michael Fiumefreddo about fantasy football draft prep.

If you’ve listened to one fantasy football show, you’ve listened to them all.

Hosts and experts tend to preach the same strategies, sleepers and busts, while we flock to them hoping for some groundbreaking advice that will win us our leagues.

That’s where I come in. I won’t be reiterating what any other analyst and expert is telling you with this column, but rather where they’re wrong.

Lie #1

“Draft players around their average draft position for the best value”

Technically, this isn’t a lie. Using average draft position (ADP) to determine when a player should be picked is a useful tool to determine who should be available at what pick. When it’s taken too literally, it becomes a lie.

ADP is just an average of where players got picked in MILLIONS of leagues — it doesn’t have to be where they get picked in YOUR league. Relying on ADP leads to missing out on players because somebody else wanted them more, or not considering players because they won’t be available when you’re on the clock.

Fantasy football is about building the best team possible, not creating nearly identical teams to the expert that did a mock draft at the same draft slot. The better strategy is going into the draft with an idea of players you want to have on your team, use their ADP to determine what round to pick them in and make sure they’re on your roster by the end of the draft. Don’t worry about what your leaguemates say after reaching on a player, but rather hope that 17 weeks later, they’ll regret not taking them sooner.

Lie #2

“Wait to take a Quarterback”

I’ve fallen victim to this multiple times, and every time I do, the same problems happen. The theory is that in standard league settings, the weekly average score for a starting quarterback is minimal. It’s best to fill your roster with running backs and wide receivers, and it won’t matter if you’re left with the QB1 or QB10.

Issue is, it does matter. Well, at least for the average league. The experts that say wait on a quarterback play against other experts doing the same thing; typically the top three go off the board relatively early and quarterback is an afterthought until the mid-rounds.

When I’ve waited for a quarterback, I watch the top three go off the board, everyone else panic, start taking the rest and I spend the rest of my season with a headache. I can’t tell you how much stress I’ve had deciding whether to start Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston or Ryan Tannehill each week.

Taking a top quarterback early comes with benefits much more valuable than an extra five points. Consistency, reliability and one less position to worry about each week. Drafting Patrick Mahomes in round two or three might be a bit too steep of a price, but Joe Burrow, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson are worth taking over a skill position player in rounds four through six.

Lie #3

“Use the ‘Zero-RB’ strategy”

For those who don’t know what this is, here’s the quick version: Overload your team with top wide receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends while only drafting high-upside running backs in later rounds. Then, spend the year watching those drafted guys slowly gain more opportunities, trading talented wide receivers for other running backs and grabbing the midseason breakout player off the waiver-wire.

It makes sense. The running back position is the most unpredictable and injury prone in all of fantasy football, so play it safe during the draft and figure it out during the long season. I actually won my league using this strategy last season, so it might seem strange as to why I’m including it here.

Despite my success, I still despise this strategy. It took two trades that happened to work out perfectly, picking up breakout receivers, not running backs (since my drafted receivers either busted or got hurt), Patrick Mahomes and a colossal collapse of my opponent in the championship game. In short, I got lucky.

Luck is the game with this strategy and it makes the most unpredictable position in fantasy football even more unpredictable. Leaguemates need to be willing to trade, you’ll need top priority on the waiver wire most weeks (which means spending the year at the bottom of the standings) and you’ll need to absolutely nail the late rounds in the draft in order for it to work. Oh and did I mention getting lucky?

The pros outweigh the cons of drafting a top running back. If injuries or busts are still a concern, handcuff them to their backup and keep current with the waiver wire.

They say it’s not about how you start, but rather how you finish. But believing these lies that experts tell you could end your season before it even begins.