On June 16th, 1918, Eugene V. Debs, a Socialist Leader running for president, made a speech in Canton, Ohio encouraging people resist the draft into World War I. Two weeks later, Debs was arrested under the Espionage Act of 1917, preventing anyone from encouraging any sedition against the United States. He was later charged with 10 counts of sedition, and thus, ten years in prison. From jail, his campaign continued, where he received 6% of the vote in the election of 1920.
The arrest of Former President Donald Trump has added another layer of complexity to the country’s contentious political situation.
Trump pled not guilty on all 34 charges being brought against him by the the New York supreme court this Monday in connection to the Stormy Daniels hush money scandal. After his two hours in custody, Trump rallied his supporters at his Mar-a-Lago residence with a speech professing no wrong-doing while accusing the justice system of attempting to end his political career at all cost. Despite being the first US president to have criminal charges filed against him, it is still possible for him to be a contender in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
Ann Crigler is an expert in political campaign communication at USC’s Dornsife School of Social Sciences. She explains that Trump is a special case in a long line of presidential campaigns, especially given today’s Republican Party.
CRIGLER: The Republican Party has largely, although not entirely backed former President Trump and has been supportive and claims that this case is not worthy of being brought.
Despite this being only one of the potential legal situations Trump faces that could manifest in imprisonment; Crigler thinks he is playing them to his advantage.
CRIGLER: I think he’s using it as a way of rallying his supporters. And he’s very good at that because he wants to identify with them and they identify with him as beleaguered and being put upon by the system. And so he is reinforcing that story of the system altogether. So it’s part of the consistent story has been telling.
Despite having a diminished presence within the Republican party, Trump could possibly be their go-to presidential candidate for the third time if he manages to win the primaries.
CRIGLER: It’s a really tough problem for the Republicans because that group of supporters that Trump has are highly motivated to vote. They are so far very loyal and likely to motivate, be motivated to get their friends out to vote, too. So he could possibly win the Republican nomination.
Crigler points out we can only guess what the political climate will be when election season comes around later this year.
CRIGLER: There’s the other cases that are being investigated. There’s the: is Biden really running or not? It looks like he is. No. There’s all kinds of things going on in the world right now which are causing lots of reconsideration’s because political preferences.
The true impact Trump could have in the upcoming election will only be known as the events of the world unflold.
For Annenberg Media, I’m Lorenzo Arce