After a bubble-ridden ending to the regular season and a disappointing loss to Arizona State in the Pac-12 Tournament, USC enters the NCAA tournament as a No. 10 seed. The Trojans are set to play No. 7 seed Michigan State on Friday.
The Trojans and Spartans present fairly similar teams, but Michigan State tends to have the edge in most categories.
It all starts with coaching.
USC head coach Andy Enfield’s track record, while limited in longevity, displays great success. He has now brought the Trojans to the NCAA tournament in three consecutive seasons and took them to the Elite Eight two seasons ago. Before he came to USC, he took No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet Sixteen.
MSU head coach Tom Izzo now has 25 straight NCAA tournament appearances. He boasts eight Final Four appearances and one championship-winning season. Izzo is well-regarded as one of the best coaches of the 21st century and has the experience needed to move on to the round of 32.
The Spartans’ roster, too, is more experienced than the Trojans’. USC is led by senior guard Boogie Ellis and fifth-year guard Drew Peterson, but most remaining players have little to no collegiate experience prior to this season. MSU is led by senior guard Tyson Walker and graduate forward Joey Hauser, but its roster features numerous other juniors and seniors who were key players for their tournament team last year.
Both teams have a similar strategy: defend well and score inside the 3-point line. Both the Trojans and Spartans rank inside Kenpom’s top 50 adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings, although MSU ranks slightly higher in both. USC ranks 299th in percent of its shots taken from 3-point range, while MSU ranks 296th. Both teams prefer higher-percentage shots.
However, this presents an issue to the Spartans, who rank third in 3-point percentage (39.5%) but 298th in 2-point percentage (47.7%). Additionally, USC boasts a stout interior defense, allowing just 42.4% of 2-point shots to fall in, which ranks second in the nation.
Michigan State must shoot its best shot to win: the 3-pointer, which USC struggles to defend.
USC’s offense has been reliant on mid-range jumpers and free throws. The Spartans rank 14th in mid-range defense, so the Trojans may need to find a rhythm from behind the arc when they aren’t attacking the basket and getting to the foul line.
The Trojans’ biggest threat may be themselves. They have struggled to take care of the ball and average 12.5 turnovers compared to the Spartans’ 10.9. USC’s 1.08 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 137th in the nation, while MSU’s 1.37 ranks 31st.
Both teams have similar records in quad 1 and 2 games. USC is 3-6 in Quad 1 games and 7-2 in Quad 2 games, while MSU has performed slightly better, going 5-9 in Quad 1 games and 8-2 in Quad 2 games.
The location presents a challenge to the Trojans, as they have to travel over 2,000 miles to Columbus, Ohio. The Spartans have the luxury of being a four-hour drive away.
The age-old Trojan War featuring the Trojans and Spartans will enter the realm of basketball Friday at 9:15 a.m. Both teams have similar resumes and play-styles. MSU tends to fare slightly better, so the Trojans must find a way to force the Spartans to play their game; not vice versa.