The March Toward March: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Mid-Majors, oh my!

“The March Toward March” is a column by Curran Rastogi about men’s college basketball teams and their journeys to March Madness.

Mid-majors are the most widely misunderstood teams each year in March Madness. Often coming with the stigma that “they don’t play anyone good,” the teams frequently succeed in the tournament — Gonzaga and Houston both reached the Final Four in 2021. Rather than writing off any team that doesn’t play in a Power Six conference, let’s look at four of the best mid-majors and how they stack up against the rest of the field.

Quick fourth wall break: I’m not talking about the No. 1 Houston Cougars in this article. They are currently the betting favorite to win the title, and most people can admit they are an elite team this year. Anyways:

No. 10 Gonzaga (25-5)

Gonzaga is actually having a down year in 2022 despite being projected to be a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. In the last three NCAA tournaments, the Bulldogs were a No. 1 seed, boasting future NBA lottery picks throughout the roster. The team is much different than years prior — with the loss of center Chet Holmgren, senior forward Drew Timme has had to start at the center position.

Timme is not a great rim protector, and head coach Mark Few has had to compensate for the loss of an outstanding big. Gonzaga employs a three-quarter court press most possessions in order to delay teams offensively. When teams run pick and rolls, the defender not being screened double-teams the ball handler to force them to the sidelines. Both are smart coaching moves to prevent teams from running their traditional offense and force them into quick shots.

The team is elite offensively, par for the course of recent Gonzaga teams. They lead the nation in scoring and rank No. 1 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency. Timme and junior guard Julian Strawther are elite, experienced scorers who can carry the team in March.

The major worry for Gonzaga is facing teams with great ball handlers who will attack their press and score easy points. That combined with an off shooting night could spell an early exit in March Madness.

No. 17 Saint Mary’s (25-6)

Saint Mary’s is the exact opposite of Gonzaga. Contrasting the Bulldogs lighting quick offense, Saint Mary’s ranks 359th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, fifth slowest in the country. Going along with this, the Gaels have one of the stingiest defenses in the nation. They are No. 5 and No. 10 in the country in points and field goals allowed per game. They produce these numbers with physical on-ball defense that forces teams into difficult, contested shots.

Offensively, the team is led by two guards: fifth year Logan Johnson and freshman Aidan Maheny. Johnson is a speedy slasher who might be the best guard in the country at getting downhill to the basket. Maheny doesn’t play like a freshman and is a gifted three level scorer who will be relied on in the clutch. Both guards are the catalysts to an offense full of driving to the basket and kicking it out to players cutting from the perimeter.

Saint Mary’s looks like a team that may be underseeded in the March Madness bracket. Even though they are projected to be a five seed, the Gaels rank sixth in the NET rankings. Saint Mary’s looks poised to make a run.

No. 18 San Diego State (23-5)

The Aztecs are a team tailor-made for a second weekend in March Madness this year and will be a tough out for any team. The roster is full of experience as, in conference play, their rotation has consisted of only upperclassmen. Head coach Brian Dutcher has led the program to six consecutive seasons with at least 20 wins. The Aztecs are also 8-2 in road games.

Usually known for their stout defense, this year’s team is no different. The Aztecs are No. 14 in defensive efficiency this year according to KenPom. The deep, experienced roster is full of defensive stoppers, and they allow the lowest field goal percentage, three point percentage and points per game in the Mountain West Conference.

Offensively, the team is capable of competing with most high-powered offenses. Senior guards Matt Bradley and Darrion Trimmel have been the two go-to guys for the Aztecs this year, but due to the unselfish nature of their offense, any player can lead the team in scoring in any game. The Aztecs should break their two year streak of losing in the first round of March Madness.

Boise State (23-7)

Right behind the Aztecs in the Mountain West are the Boise State Broncos with a similarly elite defense. The Broncos are top-heavy with their scoring and run a shallow rotation, but they are still No. 2 in the Mountain West in scoring. Redshirt senior guard Max Rice and sophomore forward Tyson Degenhart are a great scoring duo who are both shooting at least 40% in conference play. Down the stretch, the Broncos also turn to fifth year guard Marcus Shaver Jr., who is known by fans as “Big Shot Shave”.

Boise State’s issues will come if they deal with foul trouble early, as they lack the depth to win consistently without a few starters. I think the Broncos could be out in the first round, but their defense should keep them in games.

That was a lot of writing. When we as college basketball fans make our brackets, let’s give serious thought to mid-major teams being serious threats to make runs in the tournament. This should help us get over the confirmation bias we receive from networks like ESPN and Fox Sports, and the college basketball fandom as a whole, leaving us with better brackets.

“The March Toward March” runs every Thursday.