U.S. and Russia START Treaty in danger

Russia is suspending its participation in the New START Nuclear Treaty causing some to worry that a new arms race, or a Cold War 2.0, will begin. Shane Dimapanat has the story.

Suspended isn’t exactly withdrawing though and Russia says it will still honor the treaty’s limits on warheads and launchers, causing some to wonder why suspend in the first place!

ENGLISH: It’s another indirect form of nuclear saber rattling. And obviously his main priority is the war in Ukraine. He wants to see all the Western support for Ukraine reduced or halted and in a very in a very clumsy way, he’s trying to leverage Russian participation in the New START treaty to get that.

That was Robert English, an expert in Russia’s politics and international relations.

He says that Russia is obviously the bad guy today, even as Putin blames American aggression and interference in the Ukrainian war for the suspension.

But English also says the U.S has a hand in the deterioration of Nuclear restrictions today, but not in the way that Putin says.

There were many treaties besides the New START Treaty that was signed in 2010 by former Presidents Barrack Obama and Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev that limited each country to 1550 nuclear warheads and 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles and heavy bombers.

There was the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, treaty, and the Anti-Ballistic Missile, or ABM treaty which ended in 2001.

ENGLISH: The death of the ABM Treaty was the first major blow to the nuclear arms control regime. And we did it under George W Bush.

Nuclear arms control has been deteriorating for a long time, with Bush striking the ABM treaty in 2001 as English says, and Trump with the INF treaty in 2019.

And the recent situation with Russia’s suspension exacerbates the issue of nuclear control further.

Peter Carnevale, expert in conflict management, couldn’t give an interview but said the situation is bleak to say the least.

ENGLISH: The U.S. and Russia are not the only nuclear powers and we have two issues ongoing. One is. China after decades of maintaining a very small nuclear force has in recent years been building up from dozens to hundreds of missiles. And potentially moving up into the major leagues, if we can call it that, where the U.S. and Russia aren’t. So that’s already a nuclear arms race.

But, the treaty is eroding, and the question is if it will be renewed or extended in 2026.

The treaty is important because first, it puts concrete limits on weapons. And second, it creates an atmosphere of trust, transparency, and openness.

ENGLISH: Because when we don’t know what the Russians are up to, we assume the worst and we start building up rapidly. If they don’t know what we’re up to, they assume the worst and it becomes a spiral, an unnecessary spiral.

Regardless of the issue, English says de-escalation is still possible.

For Annenberg Media, this is Shane Dimapanat.