“Tourney Talk” is a column by Michael Fiumefreddo about the men’s basketball NCAA tournament.
Wednesday marked the eighth time this season that the AP No. 1 ranked team lost. Like their football counterparts, Alabama basketball traveled into Knoxville to take on a highly-ranked Tennessee team, and the Vols held down their fort.
One loss usually knocks a team out of the College Football Playoff, but this is basketball season, and Bama has done more than enough to ensure entry into March Madness. Instead, the top teams seek one of the four No. 1 seeds, and Alabama just made that race much more complicated.
A No. 1 seed won the past five NCAA tournaments and eight of the past 10. It makes sense why: One of the top four teams in college basketball should be good enough to win it all. This year, almost the entire AP Top 10 can make a case for the top spot in one of the regions. With just three weekends — plus conference tournaments — left before the Big Dance, there’s no telling who will get the honor, but it’s fairly easy to figure out where the minds of the selection committee are looking.
If the season ended today, Purdue and Alabama would both be No. 1 seeds. But the season is far from over, and it’s actually a blessing in disguise for the Boilermakers.
Purdue — who looked like the unquestioned favorites to win the championship a few weeks ago — has lost three of its last four. With another loss, the next article in this series will be “Is Purdue a Contender Anymore?”. Luckily for the Boilermakers, this is just a product of the scheduling.
Three games on the road, with one against rival Indiana and two against surprise top teams in the conference, all over the course of three weekends. If anyone deserves some slack for a rough stretch of games, it’s Purdue, who has already proven to be a dominant force in a loaded Big Ten and have the chance to avenge their loss against the Hoosiers in one week. They’ll face an Ohio State team with three conference wins tomorrow at home, the perfect time for the Boilermakers to get back on track.
Alabama is Purdue’s polar opposite. Losing on the road to a top-10 conference opponent isn’t detrimental, but that’s the Tide’s fourth loss, matching UCLA, Arizona and Virginia. The Big Ten’s competition is much harder than the SEC, which has just two ranked teams in Tennessee and Alabama. Bama’s North Carolina win no longer looks great. Its losses to UConn and Gonzaga are progressively looking worse. The reasons against Alabama being a number one seed are beginning to stack up.
The saving grace is that this is Bama’s spot to lose. They’re on a collision course with Tennessee for the SEC Championship, so if the Tide can beat the Vols on a neutral court, they’ll hold one of the top four spots.
Only one team has punched their ticket to a No. 1 seed. The Houston Cougars should be atop the AP rankings come Monday, and there’s no threat to the throne in their remaining schedule. On paper, its AAC Schedule looks like a cakewalk; however, Houston’s five toughest games happened in non-conference play, and it went 4-1 with notable wins over then-No. 2 Virginia and St. Mary’s.
Houston has beaten every team in their conference except Memphis — only because they haven’t played yet. The only scenario the committee could consider leaving the Cougars out of the top four is with a detrimental exit from the AAC Tournament, but given their 11-1 performance in conference play thus far, that’s highly unlikely.
But Houston’s quest to a No. 1 seed as a mid-major is a rare feat unless it’s done by Gonzaga, mainly because the best teams often come from Power 5 conferences and the Big East. The Big 12 is a juggernaut this season, with six teams currently ranked in the top 25 and three in the top 10. Therefore, the Big 12 tournament is a play-in tournament for a No. 1 seed, and Kansas, Texas and Baylor are the frontrunners.
All three teams get a scouting report of the other two before the tourney; they play each other in the next three weeks. But the talent of the conference, coupled with the dominance these three have shown, make the champion a no-brainer to lead a region. Even if an outsider such as Kansas State or Iowa State takes the crown, it’s likely the conference’s pedigree this season warrants it a top seed.
That leaves one spot open should Alabama miss out, and there are three contenders. Arizona and UCLA should easily reach the Pac-12 Tournament championship game, and both have been marching up the top 10 as of late. The winner will have a case for a No. 1 seed. However, like the SEC, the Pac-12 is weak after the top two, and both teams have some losses to potential non-tournament teams that hurt their resume.
The fourth spot will end up going to Virginia, who’s quietly won 10 of its last 11. The Cavaliers are still on the outside looking in to enter the top seed conversation, but what better way to do so than knocking off the reigning champions on their home court a week from now. Virginia is surging at the right time, and UNC is in freefall, but name value in the ACC goes a long way. Expect the Cavs to be a top-5 ranked team come conference tournament play, with a tournament win and a blunder from one of the others vaulting them into a No. 1 seed.
Tourney Talk runs every Friday.