“Tourney Talk” is a column by Michael Fiumefreddo about the men’s basketball NCAA tournament.
Unlike any other sports tournament, the best team rarely wins March Madness. To finish on top, a team must win six games, at a neutral site, against a team they probably haven’t seen that year on two-to-three days of preparation. This task is difficult for undefeated teams, former AP No. 1′s and squads loaded with NBA-caliber players.
Cinderella teams become the biggest story each tournament. A school nobody’s ever heard of — written off as a first-round exit — somehow busts brackets and, in rare cases, cuts down the nets as champions come April.
The world watched as No. 15 seed St. Peter’s, a school that takes up just one city block in New Jersey, reached the Elite Eight last year. Fans stayed up late to watch UMBC become the first No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed in 2018. Sister Jean and No. 11 seed Loyola Chicago’s Final Four run will never be forgotten that same year.
Cinderellas have what it takes to win in March — and no, this isn’t a cliché for heart and determination. There are three keys that all Cinderellas have that make them a threat to win a handful of games in the Big Dance.
This doesn’t mean heart and determination aren’t huge factors. In fact, they’re the essential components of the first key: senior-heavy rosters. Typically, the best freshman head to “blue blood” programs as a pit-stop before the NBA.
For the rest, their final seasons in college are their last chance at glory. St. Peter’s top six scorers last season were juniors and seniors by a significant margin. The four underclassmen that played for the Peacocks combined for 12.8 points per game, minuscule compared to the 54 points the top six put up nightly. Their biggest win? Against the one-and-done factory Kentucky. The Peacocks were a team playing with purpose; they wanted to be crowned NCAA champions in their last year together, despite the odds being stacked against them.
But, every team has seniors that want to win. What separates those that actually do is their performance in certain elements of the game, which are the next two keys.
Analysts and experts point out the Colgate Raiders year after year as a team that can pull off an early upset. Colgate created a Patriot League dynasty by living and dying by the three-point shot. Get ready for the same story this season, with the Raiders shooting 39.4% from beyond the arc, good for fifth-highest in all of college basketball.
The 3-point shot can turn a double-digit deficit into a one-possession game within a matter of seconds. It can also turn a close game into a blowout in just a few minutes of play. Teams built to catch fire and win in March don’t have an off shooting night from beyond the arc. Virginia’s 2018 team had one of those nights in the first round, shooting 18.2% on threes to become the first No. 1 seed to lose their opening game. The team they lost to, the UMBC Retrievers that shot 38.7% from three that season, lit it up from beyond the arc and hit half their threes to knock off the Cavaliers by 20.
The only line on the basketball court that’s just as important as the three-point line, however, is the charity stripe. Late game free throws matter more at the college level than in the NBA for two reasons: most college players are not automatic from the line, and fouls in the bonus go to a one-and-one format rather than two shots.
When a good free throw shooting team takes the lead late in a tournament game, they’re in control. The losing team continues to foul with the hope of a few misses and the ball back, but that never comes. Oral Roberts took down two Power 5 teams in 2021 and lost their Sweet 16 matchup by two; an impressive feat for a No. 15 seed. Their strength? The Golden Eagles led the nation in free throw percentage. Coupled with being a top-20 team from three, it’s not hard to see why they pulled off two impressive upsets.
This year’s Golden Eagles have the tools to be 2023′s Cinderella team. Their stars from two years ago are now upperclassmen that have only gotten better from three and the free throw line. ESPN’s Bracketology has them slotted as a 12-seed, a convincing sign of their improvement over two seasons.
Also, keep an eye on the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. It’ll be a fight for them to even make the dance, but if they do, they are a top ten three-point shooting team.
But nothing says Cinderella teams are limited to mid-majors. North Carolina opened up the year as the No. 1-ranked team, but their current freefall down the standings could see the Tar Heels end up as a No. 8-11 seed. That’s where they were ranked last season, when they made the Final Four, and UNC retained the same core of junior guard Caleb Love, junior guard RJ Davis and senior forward Armando Bacot. This upperclassmen-heavy Tar Heels team knows how to win in March. If they get there, expect a deep run like last season.
Regardless, no matter how much analysis and research you do, there will always be a team that shocks everyone and becomes the story of the tournament. Everyone will try to predict which team that will be, and most will be wrong. But, instead of taking a shot in the dark, using these three keys will ensure your guess will at least be educated.
Tourney Talk runs every Friday.