Last [sic] week’s 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Turkey has worried Californians who acknowledge that things like In-n-Out, Hollywood celebrities, and yearlong beach weather come at the cost of living on one of the most active sets of fault lines in the world.
As of today, over 20,000 people have died in the earthquake that hit Turkey and Northern Syria, with that number still expanding each day. The rescue and aid efforts by other nations are still ongoing, and are expected to last for months.
But that still leaves the question on a lot of people’s minds: What would an earthquake the magnitude of the one experienced in Turkey look like in the state of California? In other words, what will be the aftermath of “The Big One”?
in 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey published a study called the ShakeOut Scenario. It tells the story on what would happen if a 7.8 earthquake hit Southern California on the San Andreas Fault.
The simulation played out as the most fatal natural disaster in American history with over 1,800 dead and 50,000 injured. Los Angeles County would suffer the most fatalities with over 1,000 dead, followed by Orange County with 350 dead.
Trans-state infrastructure including the 15 and the 10 freeways could be destroyed, and nearly 1 million people could be displaced from their homes. Those who do still have a house standing may not have power, gas or even cell service. It’s estimated the damages would total $200 billion.
The initial shaking would only last about a minute in the earliest hit areas, but it would bring with it tens of thousands of aftershocks that would last months after the quake. The first major aftershock, only 17 hours after the earthquake, would have a massive impact with an estimated 7.2 magnitude; Almost as bad as the first one.
Since this simulation has ran, Californian schools have participated in the great ShakeOut drill in preparation for an event like this, and buildings have been built to withstand high magnitude earthquakes- Turkey’s infrastructure was not earthquake-proofed, which has contributed to the disastrous death toll.
The purpose of the ShakeOut Scenario isn’t just to fearmonger, but to prepare Californians for an incident that may be just around the corner.