The Clash at the Coliseum kicks off the 2023 NASCAR Cup season today. With the sport returning to the West Coast, here are a few storylines to look out for.
Underdogs in front
Justin Haley won pole position. He qualified third overall last year, putting him on pole for one of the heats, but he’s far from a star driver. Haley drives for Kaulig Racing, only in its second year as a full-time team.
His teammate, longtime veteran A.J. Allmendinger, will be starting on the front row of the fourth heat race in his first race as a full-time Cup Series driver since 2018. Both are gifted drivers, but this showing came as a surprise.
Penskes towards the back
Last year’s winner Joey Logano was the top-qualifying Penske, but he only managed to place 17th. Teammates Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney qualified 25th and 35th, respectively. Penske is coming off an amazing 2022, with championship wins in both NASCAR (Logano) and IndyCar (Will Power) and a Daytona 500 win from Cindric. This year has not started nearly as well.
Agents of chaos
Ty Gibbs showed good pace in practice with the sixth fastest time. Unfortunately for his prospects today, his car caught on fire yesterday, preventing him from setting a lap time in qualifying. He’s a very aggressive young driver, and it would not be a surprise to see him make risky moves to push for a spot in the final race. If you want to guarantee that you’ll be entertained, watch out for the No. 54 car.
Ty Dillon hasn’t shown much pace this weekend and only managed to qualify 33rd, but last year he and Austin Cindric were making moves most other drivers didn’t dare attempt. The No. 77 team needs to dial in their set-up for tomorrow, but Ty Dillon is an aggressive enough driver to create drama regardless of how quick his car is around such a short circuit.
Big names in the mud
With the track cooling as qualifying wore on, some very good drivers set very bad times. Chase Elliott, a former Cup Series champion, qualified 30th after putting forward the seventh fastest qualifying time last year.
Ryan Blaney has been top 10 in the standings in each of the last six years. Today, he carried too much speed into turn three, bailed on his lap, turned around, drove back to the midway point on the back straightaway, and carried on from there. His lap was disallowed, so he’ll be starting in the back.
Interesting strategy there Blaney, let’s see if it pays off… pic.twitter.com/GRROur39Ey
— Jack Swansey (@JackSwansey) February 5, 2023
Martin Truex Jr. and Bubba Wallace were the two fastest cars in practice, but both failed to put forward top-15 times in qualifying. They’ve shown strong daytime pace this weekend but failed to adjust to colder temperatures.
Tyler Reddick was leading in last year’s Clash before his driveshaft broke. This year, in his first race as a 23XI driver, he only qualified 19th.
All five drivers should make significant progress towards the front in today’s heat races.
Projections:
Heat 1 Winner: Justin Haley (No. 31) - The first group is likely the weakest of the four heats. With how difficult it was to pass for the lead last year and the track needing to rubber in after last night’s rain, Haley should have a fairly easy path to victory. Last year’s winner, Joey Logano, is the dark horse, starting fifth in the group.
Heat 2 Winner: Kyle Busch (No. 8) - Busch won his heat last year and led for much of the final race. He has pace again this year, which put him on pole for the heat, but faces a tough group with four other former Cup Series champions.
Heat 3 Winner: Denny Hamlin (No. 11) - Heat 3 is more of a toss-up, but I expect Hamlin’s experience to help him to victory in the heat. Polesitter Christopher Bell (No. 20) and the midpack Chase Briscoe (No. 14) have experience in shorter track situations and should figure to compete for the win. Tyler Reddick (No. 45) was also strong last year.
Heat 4 Winner: Bubba Wallace (No. 23) - This may be an overreaction to practice, but Bubba Wallace was lightning quick in daytime running yesterday. He doesn’t start up front, but he may have the pace to work his way up anyway. William Byron (No. 24) should be strong from pole and Ross Chastain (No. 1) will also compete for the win, as his aggressive driving style should help him move forward.
LCQ 1 Winner: Chase Elliott (No. 9) - At least one of the second heat’s former Cup Series champions will have to race their way in through the Last Chance Qualifying rounds. Elliott starts at the back in his heat and could find it hard to make it into the top five.
LCQ 2 Winner: Tyler Reddick (No. 45) - Reddick showed great pace last year before his car failed him. He starts toward the back of a very talented group and could find himself the odd one out, but he should have the pace to compete anyway.
Overall Winner: Kyle Busch (No. 8) - Busch had remarkable pace last year before an untimely caution gave Logano the lead. This year, he will likely start towards the front of the field and should be tough to pass again. Look for Busch to win his inaugural race with Richard Childress Racing and the inaugural race of the 2023 season.