“Tourney Talk” is a column by Michael Fiumefreddo about the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament.
March Madness is almost here. In what’s been a wild season, it seems even harder to determine the favorites to win the unpredictable bracket. However, past years and tournaments show an easy way to narrow down the field; we have to travel back in time to Week 6 in order to do so.
The March Madness tournament champion was ranked in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP rankings for the past 18 tournaments. In fact, if Syracuse’s Cinderella run in 2003 hadn’t happened, this trend goes back to 1987, so yeah, odds are it happens again.
Let’s narrow down the search for the new champion using these rankings and rerank them based on their chances of winning it all.
Group 1: The Longshots
12. Arkansas, 11. UConn, 10. Duke
Arkansas and UConn combined for just one loss at the time of these rankings, but both of them have now lost six of their last ten games. They’re struggling in conference play, and if this continues into their respective conference tournaments, they could miss out on the big dance altogether.
It’s strange to consider Duke a ‘longshot’ at the title. But, the post-Coach K Blue Devils are no longer ranked and are trending towards the middle of the ACC. The next two weeks are make or break, welcoming rival North Carolina into Cameron Indoor tomorrow, a trip down to No. 23 Miami on Monday and then No. 6 Virginia next weekend. An impressive showing in those games could propel Duke back into the title contention conversation. With some losses, however, they might suffer the same fate as Arkansas and UConn.
Group 2: The Big 12 (+2)
9. Baylor, 8. Texas, 7. Arizona, 6. Kansas, 5. Virginia
The Big 12 is a juggernaut this season. The most recent Top 25 featured six teams from the conference. Baylor, Texas and Kansas all suffered the same fate — a loss to a surging Kansas State — following the release of these rankings.
All three of them had or will have their shot at redemption against the Wildcats in the coming weeks. Kansas was the first to take down their cross-state rival, doing so in convincing fashion. However, the reigning champion Jayhawks did go on a three-game losing streak to ranked Big 12 teams, and there will be five more of those games to find out if Kansas is legit. But, sticking with the theme of history, there has not been a repeat champion since 1973.
Outside of the Big 12, Arizona is scoring a whopping 83 points per game, and it is one of two teams in this top 12 ranked in the top 25 nationally in points per game and point differential. The Wildcats’ 91-76 win over Oregon Thursday night further validates their claim as one of the best scoring teams in the nation.
Then there’s Virginia. The Cavaliers are quietly climbing their way back into the conversation, though, winning nine of their last 10. However, they lead this group for two separate reasons: their top three scorers are all seniors, and they shoot an astounding 38% on threes. Not that the Cavs are Cinderellas, but Cinderella teams that are senior-led and can shoot the three tend to heat up in March. The only difference is that Virginia will be in the hunt for a No. 1 seed.
Group 3: The favorites
4. Tennessee, 3. Alabama, 2. Houston, 1. Purdue
Analytics lovers might choose the other three teams over the Boilermakers. Houston, Tennessee and Alabama rank higher than Purdue in BPI, a metric used to calculate team success and performance. It’s often regarded as the best way of determining who the best teams are. No. 1 Purdue ranks fifth.
Houston, the only mid-major team of the 12, looked like the top team at one point this year, but the Cougars’ cakewalk AAC schedule is a point of concern for a deep run in March. The Cougars went 2-1 against Power 5 teams, and 1-1 against ranked teams. Unfortunately, Houston won’t have a shot at another powerhouse until the Big Dance.
The third Saturday in October game between Tennessee and Alabama football felt like a play-in game for the College Football Playoff. The third Wednesday in February game between the Volunteers and Bama basketball will likely determine a No. 1 seed in March Madness. Both teams went through ups and downs this week but in opposite fashion. Oklahoma upset the Tide, but Alabama recovered with a convincing win against Vanderbilt. Tennessee convincingly took down Texas, only to score 8 points in the final nine minutes of a loss to Florida. It’s hard to separate these teams right now, so the February 15 matchup will provide some outlook on where these teams stand.
But Purdue was the top team in Week 6, and it is now the unanimous top team in Week 14. Minus a miracle upset to Rutgers, the Boilermakers are undefeated and have won 15 of their 22 games by double digits. Also, having the likely Wooden Award winner in Zach Edey doesn’t hurt their case as the top team.
Tourney Talk runs every Friday.