Politics

The Sun Sets in the West: Arizona and Nevada Races’ Influence on Party Control

Midterm races in Arizona and Nevada slowly reveal the future of Congress.

Voter turning it ballot in Los Angeles.
Voters go out to the Polls in Los Angeles and across the country. (Photo by Micheal Chow)

As America waits to see who will control Congress for the next two years, all eyes are turning to the West and races that haven’t been called.

Here are four of the most prominent national races that could swing the balance of power:

ARIZONA

Arizona Senate Race

Incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly is up against Republican Blake Masters. Kelly became the state’s senator in 2020 after an election to fill a vacant seat when Republican Sen. John McCain died. Kelly is a former astronaut and Navy pilot whose platform focused on abortion and reproductive rights. The Trump-backed Masters’ campaign focused on the economy and inflation. Masters was nominated by the GOP as a far-right candidate in a swing state. This race Kelly currently holds the lead with just under 70% of the votes being counted. This race is pivotal because it is one of three races that haven’t been called yet that will decide which party controls the Senate.

Arizona Governor

Republican candidate Kari Lake, a vocal 2020 election denier, began questioning the election results in her race against Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs before the race had been called. Lake’s election denialism has endeared her to former president Donald Trump, and she has made that the focal point of her campaign. Hobbs is currently the state’s Secretary of State and has defended the 2020 election results. As of November 9 at 4 p.m., Hobbs leads with 50.22%.

When Will We See Results?

Maricopa County has the largest population in Arizona, which includes Phoenix and surrounding areas, so it will make the largest impact on the Senate race, but the ballot counting process is slow in the county. Maricopa County allows early votes received and verified by 5 p.m. on Saturday, November 5 to be released at 8 p.m. on election night. Votes received after 5 p.m. on Saturday are being counted with in-person votes. Election officials are expecting that 95 to 99% of the vote will be counted by Friday.

NEVADA

Nevada Governor Race

Incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak trails behind Republican Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo with 77% of votes counted. Sisolak is seeking his second term after focusing on abortion access and past econmic achievements, such as raising the minimum wage. The Trump-endorsed Lombardo has been vocal about his disapproval of Sisolak’s stewardship of the state. The results are expected to be within an extremely close margin.

Nevada Senate Race

Nevada’s United States Senate race is the most expensive political race in the state’s history because it could decide which party controls the Senate. The margin between Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt has made the race still close to call. The candiates follow a national pattern of abortion access being one of the most important issues to voters. Mastro campaigned on reproductive rights after the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court during summer. Laxalt has embraced more restrictive abortion policies, endorsing a ban after 13 weeks. Currently in Nevada, abortion is legal up to 24 weeks and later if there health risks. Laxalt leads with 49.9% of votes.

When Will We See Results?

Nevada has been a blue state with a majority of voters registered as Democrats, but this status is at risk based on voting turnout. The senate race only has 75% of votes counted. Mail-in ballots are now sent to every registered voter and can be counted if postmarked by election day. Cortez Mastro has a lead, but the race is still too close to call as Nevada law allows mail-in votes to be received up until November 12.