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Former President Donald Trump’s interference in the 2022 midterm elections may have weakened the “red wave” that many political experts thought would carry Republicans, according to Bob Shrum, veteran Democratic political strategist and Director for the Center for the Political Future.
“If the Democrats keep the Senate, it will be because Donald Trump helped nominate Republican candidates who were going to have a very difficult time winning,” Shrum said at the midterm election watch party hosted by the Center for the Political Future Tuesday night. “If Democrats keep the Senate, that will be one impact Trump has had.”
Shrum made his comments midway through election nights as results were rolling in. The final results will likely not be known until Wednesday or even later.
Shrum cited Pennsylvania, where Dr. Mehmet Oz faces John Fetterman in a tight race for one of the state’s Senate seats. Oz won the Republican primary riding with the support of Donald Trump, which was enough to give him a narrow victory over his opponent David McCormick.
“If Dr. Oz’s major opponent had won the Republican primary, I think he would probably win the race,” Shrum said. “Oz still might win, but he is a weaker candidate.”
At the time of publication, Fetterman was leading the race with 49.4% of the vote compared to Oz’s 48.3%, and with 71% of Pennsylvania votes counted.
The watch party, which Shrum co-hosted with Christina Bellantoni, director of the USC Annenberg Media Center, included Noelia Rodriguez, a career communications and politics expert; Todd Purdum, a political journalist; Ira Reiner, the former Los Angeles County district attorney; and Muna Shikaki, a career political journalist and Washington correspondent.
The impact of Trump’s 2020 election denial also continues to ripple across the midterm elections, even influencing several outcomes, according to Shrum.
At the time of publishing, Georgia Democratic Senate candidate Rapahel Warnock received 200,000 more votes than Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, which could carry Warnock to victory. At the time of publishing, Walker leads Warnock by 1,000 votes, with 89% of the vote counted.
Shrum theorized that the difference between Warnock’s and Abrams’ results was due to their opponents: Warnock was running against Herschel Walker, an avid Trump supporter who denied the results of the 2020 election, while Abrams faced Republican governor Brian Kemp, who certified Georgia’s election results in 2020.
“The bigger philosophical question about the impact of Donald Trump is the denier question, and that really is what hurts our form of democracy,” Rodriguez said. “Probably for the first time in history, [a state’s] secretary of state position is more important than ever, because people don’t just think of it as an administrative role, but a role in certifying elections.”
However, not all of Donald Trump’s favored candidates face tight opposition. In Ohio, JD Vance, the Trump-backed candidate for Senate defeated Democratic opponent Tim Ryan, according to the Associated Press.
“We simply have a very closely divided country,” Purdum said of the gap between the two parties. “It is not lopsided one way or the other.”
The event was sponsored by the Annenberg Media Center in partnership with the Political Student Assembly, Trojan Democrats, USC College Republicans, Vote SC, USC Political Union, USC Undergraduate Student Government, USC Student Affairs, The Moderator, and YPO LA Chapter.