As voters continue to make their way to polling stations nationwide, there’s growing uncertainty among Democrats and Republicans that the results will be in their favor.
Contentions continue to rise over gubernatorial, mayoral and representative races, but the fight for control of the Senate has garnered major publicity in the months leading up to the election.
Democrats hold 14 seats that are up for reelection this cycle, while Republicans hold 21. Despite the difference, early polling indicates that Republicans could gain back power in the Senate.
There are numerous contested battleground states fighting for Senate control, but there are eight key races that could determine whether President Biden’s political agenda is uprooted or remains afloat.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is currently one of only a handful of states with both a Democratic and Republican senator. After Republican incumbent Pat Toomey announced he would not seek reelection, two prominent figures jumped at the chance to take over his seat in the Capitol.
The contentious battle between Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and multimillionaire TV personality Mehmet Oz sparked a series of internet memes and online debate criticizing both candidates.
Fetterman faced heavy criticism from conservatives regarding whether he could perform the duties of a U.S. senator after suffering a stroke in late May. While Fetterman maintains he’s healthy and recovering, Oz’s campaign has homed in on the medical emergency in numerous political advertisements since.
On the flip side, Fetterman’s campaign has questioned Oz’s ability to connect with Pennsylvania voters, often poking fun at Oz’s residency in New Jersey and lack of knowledge on popular Pennsylvanian culture.
A Fetterman win would signify a major victory for Democrats, but an Oz win could lead to the Senate being under GOP control depending on the results in other battleground states.
Dr. Michael Berkman, director of the McCourtney Institute for Democracy at the Pennsylvania State University, said the fate of the Senate is “on a razor’s edge,” and the chance for Democrats to flip the seat is a major opportunity.
Under Pennsylvania law, mail-in ballots cannot be processed until the day of the election resulting in a similar situation to the 2020 election, Berkman said. There will likely be early signs of overwhelming Republican support due to in-person voting, but as mail-in ballots begin to be counted throughout the day, and possibly the week, the results could shift to Democratic candidates.
An early “wave of red” could easily be subdued by mail-in votes, a majority of which are casted by Democrats.
“The reason Pennsylvania is so important is that it’s the opportunity for Democrats to flip the seat,” Berkman said. “If the Democrats could hold their seats and flip one, then they’re in an entirely different position than they are right now — But that means they can’t lose any. There are seats that are clearly at risk of being lost.”
Georgia
After a major win during the 2020 Georgia special election that helped flip the state blue, Democratic incumbent Sen. Rapahel Warnock is now facing down an ex-footballer turned politician: Herschel Walker.
With the highly contested rematch between Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams looming in the background, Warnock faces a tight race against Walker.
While Democrats are optimistic Warnock can maintain his seat, it’s still too early to really understand who has the upper hand.
In recent weeks Walker’s campaign has been embroiled in a series of allegations that he paid for abortions for various women, as well as criticism from his own son.
Despite the last-minute scrutiny, Walker’s chance of uprooting Warnock’s seat is still a possibility, according to Karen Owen.
Owen, an associate professor of political science at the University of West Georgia and president of the Georgia Political Science Association, said there’s no clear indication that either Warnock or Walker will win.
If neither candidate manages to secure 50% of the vote, Owen said the race could even see a run-off, similar to the 2020 election. If this happens, the results could take weeks and control of the Senate may already be well-established by then.
Arizona
Arizona’s Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly is running for reelection against venture capitalist Blake Masters.
Kelly joined Sen. Krysten Sinema in 2020 following a special election after John McCain’s death. He beat his Republican opponent by less than three points.
Backed by the former president, Masters aims to unseat Kelly and push control of the Senate toward the Republicans. Throughout his campaign, Masters pushed the lie that the 2020 election was riddled with mass election fraud.
According to his website, Masters seeks to wage a war on not just progressives, but also members of the GOP that have disaffiliated with the previous president, the so-called “RINOs” of the party.
One week ago, the Liberatarian candidate, Marc Victor, dropped out of the race and endorsed Masters.
Early polling from FiveThirtyEight indicates Kelly may have a slight lead in the race, but a definitive answer won’t come until the votes are in.
Nevada
The open seat from Nevada has two candidates vying for control: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Matso and Republican Adam Laxalt.
Elected the first woman senator in Nevada and the first Latina in the U.S. Senate in 2016, Cortez Matso’s seat has been considered one of the most vulnerable this election cycle. Despite the seat’s long history of being held by Democrats, it could see a Republican challenger take over soon.
Laxalt served as Nevada attorney general from 2015 to 2019. His predecessor was Cortez Matso, who had to step down after reaching the term limit for the position.
Now, the two former attorney general’s for the state are eyeing up the seat. One is hoping for a reelection, and one is hoping for a Democratic upheaval.
Berkman said Democrats have been increasingly worried about the race in Nevada, and the chance of it being flipped remains up in the air.
Wisconsin
Alongside Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is another state where the two senators are from differing parties, but that could soon change if Democrats are successful.
Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is currently facing off against Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.
Johnson has served as senator since 2010 when he defeated then Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold by five points. He beat Feingold again in 2016 by just three points.
Though Johnson’s seat may be considered vulnerable, Berkman said recent polling suggests otherwise. While flipping the seat could help Democrats maintain the loose majority they have, Berkman suggests the other races in the state could be more detrimental, especially in areas that face heavy gerrymandering.
New Hampshire
In what’s come as a surprise to some, New Hampshire’s narrow race could play a major role in determining the balance of the Senate.
Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan faces Republican Donald Bolduc, a retired U.S. Army brigadier general.
The tight race has “snuck up on the Democrats in the past couple weeks,” Berkman said.
Early voting results show Hassan has a slight advantage over Bolduc, but votes continue to rack up favor for Bolduc.
North Carolina
After serving as one of North Carolina’s senators since 2005, Richard Burr announced he would not seek reelection this year, leaving an open seat for Democrats and Republicans clamoring to take control.
Cheri Beasley, former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, and Ted Budd, current U.S. Representative of the state’s 13th Congressional District, are battling for the open Senate seat.
Polling leans toward Budd, but if Beasley wins the open seat she will become the only Black woman serving in the upper house.
Ohio
The battle for Ohio’s open Senate seat is between a former presidential hopeful and a venture capitalist turned author.
Democrat Tim Ryan, current representative for Ohio’s 13th Congressional District and former presidential candidate, is running against J.D. Vance, a former Marine and author of “Hillbilly Elegies”, which was adapted into a movie by Netflix in 2020.
The seat was left open after the Republican incumbent, Rob Portman, chose not to seek reelection.
In the 2020 election Biden narrowly lost to the Republican candidate by less than one point. Now, the race for the Senate seat could be just as contentious.
“Tim Ryan, who is probably the best Senate candidate in the country for the Democrats, is making a pretty strong run of it in Ohio,” Berkman said. “But he is facing enormous headwinds there. So while I don’t put it out of the question that he could win, it would take an extraordinary effort for him to do so.”
The ongoing battle to control the Senate is a key part of the midterm elections. Whoever ends out on top will change the course of Biden’s agenda and set the tone for the 2024 presidential election.
“A midterm election is always important, but it’s also fairly routine,” Berkman said. “We always have midterm elections, and the president’s party usually loses and it will change the nature of American politics. This could be the end of Joe Biden’s legislative agenda.”