LA is getting ready to elect its first new Mayor in nearly a decade. The current Mayor Eric Garcetti can not run for re-election because of the two-term limit. Billionaire developer Rick Caruso is facing Congresswoman Karen Bass. Bass was the early favorite by far. She was backed by most of the Democratic Party establishment. But Rick Caruso has spent nearly one-hundred million dollars on his campaign and he has brought tomorrow’s contest to nearly a dead heat. Money talks, and so does Sophia Hammerle.
Billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso has now spent more than $92.3 million on his mayoral campaign, 99% of which comes from himself in the form of loans, according to the L.A. Times. His spending is nearly 8 times that of his opponent, Karen Bass, who has run her campaign almost exclusively on donations.
This increase in spending is part of a national historical trend. The 2022 midterms are projected to be the most expensive midterms ever with a total of 16. 7 billion dollars in expected spending, according to OpenSecrets, an independent nonprofit research group that tracks money in U.S. politics.
Geoffrey Cowen, USC Annenberg professor and director of the center on communication leadership and policy, described how while money makes a difference in politics, it doesn’t necessarily secure a win.
Geoffry Cowen: I think part of what happens is people who are hugely rich sometimes think that the only way to win is to spend a lot of money and they have the money to spend. [...] I personally think there are a lot of problems with too much money in politics. I really do think there is. But it’s where we are.
Across the country, several other races are seeing record levels of spending. The Wisconsin governor’s race is the most expensive in state history, nearing $115 million in spending, according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign. In the race for U.S. Senate in Georgia, candidates have raised a combined $150 million.
This isn’t the first mayoral race to see such high spending, either. Former new York city mayor Michael Bloomberg poured $102 million into his campaign for a third term in 2009.
There appears to be a strong association between campaign spending and political success. In 2020, 88% of those elected to the House of Representatives spent more money than their opponents, according to Open Secrets.
This isn’t evidence of causation, however. Richard Lau, a professor of political science at Rutgers, said it is less about money causing winning, and more about winning attracting money.
Cowen agreed that it wasn’t a direct correlation.
Geoffry Cowen: So money does not always mean you win. you’ve got to have a message. You’ve got to have a candidate with some appeal.
More than half of Caruso’s spending has gone toward radio, TV, and digital advertising. This is part of a national trend of proliferation in political advertising since 2010, when the Citizen’s United v. FEC Supreme court case overturned restrictions on campaign spending.
Geoffry Cowen: You know, if we hadn’t had Citizens United, I don’t think Caruso could spend the amount of money that he spent. He doesn’t mean he wouldn’t still win. It’d be different system, but he wouldn’t be able to do it by spending a lot of money
Is Caruso’s spending enough to sway the election in his favor? Voters have their final say tomorrow on Election Day.
For Annenberg Media, I’m Sophia Hammerle.