This is March. The madness is upon us, and it’s time to fill out NCAA Tournament brackets. Here are some facts to help you keep your bracket intact for as long as possible.
Only three teams with eight or more losses have won the tournament since 1988.
Don’t let anyone tell you the college basketball season doesn’t matter until March Madness. There have been just three teams since 1988 to cut down the nets with eight or more losses on their record. That narrows the possible champions to 21 teams out of the top 40 overall seeds. The teams with eight or more losses that have a No. 5 seed or higher are Texas Tech, Illinois, Arkansas, UConn and Iowa.
No. 11 seeds are the most frequent upset in the last 10 years.
Much has been said of the 5-12 matchup, but the most interesting matchup in the Round of 64 is between the No. 6 and No. 11 seeds. No. 6 seeds have an overall record of 90-54 against No. 11 seeds in the opening round, but No. 11 seeds have won 21 of the last 40 matchups.
In the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, No. 11 seeds made it out of the first round more often than any other seed No. 9 or lower. In that same timeframe, No. 11 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen more often than any other seed No. 5 or lower. One No. 11 seed cracked the Elite Eight in five of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments. There isn’t a more obvious Cinderella pick than that.
The higher seed almost always wins the National Championship Game.
If you’re stuck on deciding who should win your National Championship Game, don’t worry. There’s a simple trick to determine the winner. Ten of the last 12 National Championship Games went to the team with the higher overall seed. Last year’s National Championship was one of the only exceptions to this rule.
No. 1 seeds are a good choice to win it all, but be careful how far you send the others.
It’s tempting to send the top teams as far as possible, but make sure there are a few upsets early on. In the last 10 seasons, eight No. 1 seeds did not survive the opening weekend, and only 14 made it to the Final Four. However, seven of the last 10 champions were No. 1 seeds, so pick a No. 1 seed to win it all and send most of the others packing on the second weekend.
Bulldogs and Tigers have never won March Madness.
It may be difficult to believe but two of the most common college mascots have never won a National Championship: Bulldogs and Tigers. The teams with these mascots in this year’s bracket are Gonzaga, Bryant, Yale, LSU, Memphis and Auburn. The No. 1-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs and No. 2-seed Auburn Tigers are the most likely prospects to end the drought. Four runner-ups since 2010 have been Bulldogs; could this be the year Bulldogs or Tigers break through?
There have been two new winners in a row, but that trend is very new.
Hoping a first-time champion will be crowned? Don’t bet on it. Before Baylor and Virginia won the last two tournaments, the last first-time national champion emerged in 2006. Duke, North Carolina, Villanova and UConn each added two National Championships to their arsenal since then. Gonzaga, Tennessee and Purdue are some of the top teams to avoid by this stat.
The national champion has never been outside the top 40 in offensive efficiency or top 20 in defensive efficiency.
The list of potential champions grows even smaller. Only nine teams fit both of these metrics: Gonzaga, UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Houston, Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn and Arizona. Auburn is the only No. 2 seed to make the cut and Kansas is the only No. 1 seed to be left out.
No NCAA Tournament champion has shot under 32.9% from behind the 3-point line.
Making 3-pointers is crucial to winning the National Championship, and if you don’t believe me just look at Kris Jenkins’ buzzer beater to clinch Villanova’s championship in 2016 and Jalen Suggs’ half-court heave to send Gonzaga to the title game last year. Ten Power 6 teams enter the tournament shooting under 32.9% from beyond the arc: Auburn, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas, TCU, Creighton, LSU and Texas Tech.
No. 5 seeds have never won March Madness, and the seed’s struggles don’t end there.
There have only been eight No. 5 seeds to make the Final Four in the history of the NCAA Tournament. None of these teams went on to win the National Championship. The No. 5 seed is still the only seed No. 8 or higher to never win it all.
In the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, only two No. 5 seeds have made it to the Elite Eight. In that same time period, four No. 7 seeds, three No. 9 seeds and five No. 11 seeds made it as far.
Best of luck to Houston, UConn, Saint Mary’s and Iowa.
Choose two seeds ranked No. 13 or lower to make it out of the first round.
If you’re wondering how many No. 13 seeds or lower will make it out of the first round, the answer is two based on the last 10 NCAA Tournaments. No. 13 seeds made up nine of the 21 teams No. 13 or lower that advanced in those tournaments. Only one of the last 10 brackets featured no upsets by a No. 13 or lower.
At-large bids win the National Championship more often as of late.
Slightly more teams with an at-large bid made it to the Final Four and National Championship in the last 10 NCAA Tournaments than teams with an automatic bid. This is likely the cause of more teams entering the tournament with an at-large bid than with an automatic bid, but the NCAA Tournament champions show a more convincing gap. Seven of the last 10 National Champions entered with an at-large bid. Baylor is the only No. 1 seed in this year’s bracket with that distinction.
Who do these metrics favor to win it all?
These metrics clearly favor Gonzaga, Baylor and Arizona, but the margin between these teams is razor thin. Gonzaga has never won a National Championship and neither has a team with its mascot. Baylor is a reigning champion, and since Florida won back-to-back championships in 2006 and 2007, no reigning champion has made it past the Sweet 16. Arizona did not make the NCAA Tournament last year due to a self-imposed postseason ban, but 55 of the last 60 Final Four teams from Power 6 conferences participated in the prior NCAA Tournament. Each of these three teams has something to overcome.