What the Russia-Ukraine war means for neighboring countries with NATO aspirations

As the war in Ukraine unfolds, Russia’s actions could turn our current understanding of geopolitics upside down. Ukraine is not the only nearby country who could join NATO, and the likes of Georgia, Finland, and Sweden among others are remaining vigilant.

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NATO is central to understanding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because, if Ukraine joined NATO, it would receive backing from the alliance’s security umbrella.

This is what Article 5 of NATO’s founding document entails. Lauren Speranza, the director of the Transatlantic Defense and Security program at the Center for European Policy Analysis, explains.

LAUREN SPERANZA: That basically signals that an attack against one is an attack against all. And if you are a member of NATO, essentially the full force of the United States and all of our European allies are behind you, and I think we’ve seen the importance of that so far.

Speranza is concerned that a poor precedent in Ukraine, which is still not a NATO country, could mean Vladimir Putin is seeking similar incursions in other countries with contested territories.

SPERANZA: There is no Article 5 guarantee, for instance, in Ukraine or in Georgia or Moldova, where Putin has tried these kinds of limited incursion tactics before.

In 2008, Russia moved troops into Georgia, also to support two breakaway territories. However, Russia’s objective in Georgia was very different to its current one in Ukraine. Here’s Ian Kelly, the United States Ambassador to Georgia from 2015 to 2018.

IAN KELLY: The war goals were simply to carve out the two regions. What’s going on in Ukraine is I think it’s very unlikely that Russia will pull back and simply carve out the two regions.

Despite that, Georgia now has a relationship with Russia that has many concerned.

KELLY: Yesterday, [Georgia] actually turned away a Ukrainian airplane that was coming to pick up Georgian volunteers to go fight in Ukraine. So there’s quite a bit of concern from people who follow Georgia about this appeasement policy and basically turning away from the west.

Other neighboring countries with NATO aspirations who have maintained solid or neutral relationships with Russia are also keeping a close eye on Ukraine. This includes Finland, which shares an 800-mile long border with Russia.

Markku Kangaspuro, the research director of the Finnish Centre for Russian and East European Studies, shares what the feeling in Finland is right now.

MARKKU KANGASPURO: Last survey showed that for the first time in our history a little bit more than 50% in favor of joining NATO. This is of course, directly a result [of] Russia’s attack [on] Ukraine.

The Russian Foreign Ministry recently warned that Finland, as well as Sweden, would face “serious military-political consequences” if they joined NATO.

Kangaspuro weighs in.

KANGASPURO: It’s really not new but what is new is, of course, the situation in Ukraine— war in Ukraine — which makes this statement more pressing and more dark.

Earlier this week, Finland and Sweden announced they would provide military aid to Ukraine, breaking their policy of not getting involved in global conflicts.

You can follow Ian Kelly on Twitter @ikelly731.