Today’s events are much bigger than Ukraine. The conflict could help usher in a new world order. Superpower relations could change as well as the terms and consequences of nations invading other sovereign lands. Professor Adil Najam, the Dean of Boston University’s Pardee School of Global Studies, says China is watching today’s events very closely.
ADIL NAJAM: China is looking at this very carefully. China is trying to see where the U.S. ends on this one, how the U.S. exerts or doesn’t exert power, and what the new balance will be. In my view, it doesn’t change the relationship fundamentally, which will remain a relationship of rivalry. But it can change the dynamic of the relationships, especially as Mr. Putin tries to sort of push the U.S. and the Western alliance more and more into a corner, possibly leading to more conflict.
If Russia can take over Ukraine, Najam wonders if that could make a Chinese incursion into Taiwan more likely.
NAJAM: Already, in all of last year, there was a lot of concern about what China might do in Taiwan this year. And this could certainly be an incentive for China in some way if they see the U.S. reaction as such that it signals that on Taiwan too, there may be not too much repercussion. This is not true only for China. This is true for many places in the world. Right, so there are many places where there is an uneasy balance. And what we are seeing in Ukraine is part of the world order shifting in the sense that, one of the big questions is, is it now? Are the old rules of balance no longer applicable?
Big questions. China has rejected to criticize Russian or call its attack as “invasion”, blaming U.S. for escalating the tensions. At President Biden’s Press Conference today, he did not say whether he is urging China to help isolate Russia:
REPORTER: And are you — are you — if I could follow-up, sir. Are you urging China to help isolate Russia? Are you urging China to help isolate Russia?
PRESIDENT BIDEN: I’m not prepared to comment on that at the moment.
Some fear that as the U.S. and Europe sanction Russia. This conflict could push Russia and China to closer ties. But Professor Najam does not think this will happen.
NAJAM: First of all, China and Russia have their own differences. Remember, they are much closer to each other geographically. They have their own history of rivalry. They both presume themselves to be major powers within their own spheres. So even if they now have a common rival in the U.S., that doesn’t necessarily mean that, you know, and that their enemies will make them friends. We have also seen, rather surprisingly, somewhat cautious reactions from Beijing. It is not as if Beijing is dancing in joy to welcome Mr. Putin’s efforts. China has very good reasons to be concerned about a growing and more belligerent Russia for their own reasons. Remember, Russia is in China’s backyard, and China is in Russia’s backyard. So that relationship is a very different one. I am not convinced that the logic is as simple as because they both seem to be rivals to the U.S. therefore, they are both friends. Now you will see this with many other countries. India, for example, and other big powers have also been quiet because for India, Russia is again both an old ally as well as a close neighbor. So what this does again, my sort of sense is what we are seeing is a rearrangement of the world order. I don’t know where it is going, but I do know, I’m fairly convinced, that the world order is shifting before our eyes.
And in that sense, what we are witnessing is much bigger than just Ukraine.