What you need to know about the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Tensions continue to rise at the Russia and Ukraine border, as the entire world awaits the Kremlin’s next move. Though we all know this is going on, do we truly know what is happening and why this conflict exists? Co-director of European studies and USC professor in the department of politics and international relations Robert English broke down what the conflict is about.

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JUSTIN HEO: A lot of people have been hearing about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but I think like many international conflicts, it is a bit difficult for American audiences to understand. Could you break it down for us in layman’s terms?

ROBERT ENGLISH: What’s happening right now is a standoff between Russia and the West, between Russia and the NATO countries, the NATO alliance. Basically, NATO — since the end of the Cold War — Russia’s military alliance collapsed, and NATO has been building up, and steadily advancing towards the East. That means towards Russia and the Russians aren’t happy about it. “We are concerned about our security and now we are drawing a red line.” So instead of words, we’re acting, we are threatening war, we’re threatening conflict, we’re raising the stakes. That’s the standoff where we are right now.

STEFAN DE LA GUARDIA: For hypothetical purposes. If Russia were to invade, what would be the domino effect and the implications for the United States?

ENGLISH: If Russia were to invade and I mean a big invasion, it would be catastrophic economically for everyone. First of all, it would trigger massive sanctions against Russia but that, in turn, would have a major impact on Western Europe immediately. It will certainly cause the price of oil to go much higher, and it’s already high. It’s already 90+ per barrel. It will go up to a 110 in the wink of an eye. When oil prices soar, that, of course, causes inflation throughout the economy because we are heating our homes and we’re driving our cars and we’re building construction. All of that will go up in price, so inflation will spread. When inflation goes up, central banks raise interest rates. That will depress. Credit becomes more expensive. Other businesses will get depressed. There will be a recession.

DE LA GUARDIA: Professor English, why has the West’s diplomacy with Russia continued to fail thus far?

ENGLISH: I think precisely for that reason, because we have incompatible interests, and so far, neither side has found a compromise formula that would satisfy both. Putin says he wants a guarantee — an ironclad guarantee — that Ukraine will never join NATO. And he also wants other NATO countries to back off, to demilitarize. For our part, we’re not willing to do any of that, and we are going to maintain NATO, and even we reserve the right to expand it further so neither side is budging.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope. In recent weeks, both the French president and now just yesterday, the German chancellor had been shuttling between Ukraine and Russia, talking to Putin in Moscow. And the most recent was Chancellor Olaf Scholz — the German Chancellor — who sort of gave a ray of light and all this darkness. He said talks are still going on. There’s room for compromise. He recognized Russia’s concerns. He’s looking for a formula by which those could be satisfied. NATO’s expansion in Ukraine would be delayed indefinitely for years and certainly from recent weeks, there’s been no progress. But now, in the last few days, I see a glimmer of hope for compromise.