“Winner Stays” is a sports debate column.
There are few types of sports content as engaging as a good debate, and that’s exactly what “Winner Stays” is all about.
Here’s how it works: Each week, two of Annenberg Media’s many excellent sports journalists will go head-to-head in debate over a certain topic. When we tweet the article from the @ANNMediaSports account, we’ll let you — the readers — decide who argued their point better via a simple Twitter poll. You’ll have 24 hours to cast your ballots. That week’s winner will stay on and debate someone new the following week. And so the cycle continues.
Without further ado, we present edition No. 1, brought to you by Sam Reno and Nathan Ackerman.
Topic: How ‘in’ should you be on USC men’s basketball this year?
Nathan Ackerman: An unwise man once texted me that “at 19-3, the burden of proof is still *slightly* on you to prove why that’s misleading.” Allow me to put my best foot forward.
USC has played exactly two (2) Quad 1 games this year. As noted by Annenberg Media’s own Eli Kleinmann on the Twitter machine Thursday night, that’s fewer than any other Power-6 team ranked in the Top 25. Fourteen of USC’s 22 games so far have come against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams. Frankly, if the Trojans were anything less than 19-3, there would be some issues.
Take a look through USC’s schedule, and it’s littered with red flags. USC beat Temple by five. Washington State by two. UC Irvine by five. Colorado by three. It lost to Stanford twice. Hell, Florida Gulf Coast and Utah hung in there. And where are the quality wins? San Diego State. Sure. And … ?
We know exactly what will burn USC when it squares up with some of the better teams in the Pac-12 (Arizona and UCLA, neither of which USC has played yet) or against quality opponents in March Madness: free throws. The Trojans ranked No. 341 out of 350 Division I teams in free-throw percentage entering play on Thursday night. They hit 64% of their attempts against Arizona State and somehow, their season mark improved. Free throws biting USC in the behind late in the season simply feels inevitable.
And finally, you have to give some credence to the eye test. The offense far too often looks out of rhythm, and I question whether it can make things happen against bigger, more physical centers à la Oregon, the dealer of USC’s second loss this season. One thing that could help in such a situation is 3-point shooting — which USC, though astonishingly second in the Pac-12 in that regard, cannot do with enough consistency or volume for it to serve as a viable alternative. If you can’t shoot free-throws, you can’t rely much on the three ball and you can’t consistently win down low, I’m not sure what there is to grasp onto.
Sam Reno: I guess the apparently “unwise man” has to remind you that 19-3 is just that — 19 wins and three losses. That’s more victories than all but three teams in the country and fewer defeats than all but four Power-6 teams.
Also conveniently omitted — both above and in Eli’s aforementioned tweet — is that USC is 2-0 in both of those Quad 1 games. Not one of the 25 schools ahead of USC in the NET rankings is without a blemish against Quad 1 opposition.
The Trojans’ 4-2 mark against Quad 2 opposition, also cleverly neglected, is no worse than any of the NET’s top 25 either. USC hasn’t played a loaded schedule by any stretch of the imagination, but they’ve been up to the task in their tough matchups so far.
There is no arguing that, on the whole, USC has done anything but struggle mightily from the line this year. However, as the ball has started to spend more time in the hands of juniors Isaiah Mobley and Boogie Ellis and freshman Reese Dixon-Waters, there’s reason for optimism.
The trio are all shooting north of 70% from the line in conference play, and, coming into Thursday night’s game against ASU, the Trojans had shot 70% or better from the charity stripe in four of their last five games.
That mark alone allowed USC to climb more than 100 spots in the free-throw rankings mentioned above, and that’s not to mention the Trojans lost the only contest in which they eclipsed 80% over that stretch.
USC is turning a corner at the line — the biggest knock against this team — and last season proved that the Trojans are more than capable of playing deep into March despite a lack of “quality” opposition and inconsistent free-throw shooting in the regular season.
Nathan Ackerman: Points taken, but let’s remember: Those schools have all fallen to Quad 1 opponents largely because they’ve played more of them; many of those Quad 1 opponents have been at least a tier above San Diego State — all due respect to the Aztecs. And if 4-2 against Quad 2 opposition has you anxiously awaiting a deep March Madness run — well, I don’t want to kill your vibe. I’ll let it slide.
I’m a proponent of increased playing time for Dixon-Waters, and the free-throw shooting is perhaps the biggest (but not only) reason. The only problem? He played just 11 minutes against Arizona State and 14 against Cal, two games that went down to the wire. On Thursday night, RDW subbed out with more than seven minutes remaining, and he didn’t see the floor again, even when USC needed to seal it with free-throws in the final minute.
Thankfully for the Trojans, Ellis got that done. Credit where due. My issue, however, is that he needed to. Arizona State, which entered play at 2-6 in the Pac-12, led by as many as eight points in the second half of that game. Eight! And, mind you, that’s after the Trojans jumped out to a 14-2 lead to start the game, something that, judging by recent history ever since USC’s COVID-induced hiatus, isn’t exactly something you should bank on.
Maybe Thursday was a sign that head coach Andy Enfield has figured out those early-game woes. Let’s be optimistic and say it was. But what about the other 35 minutes? In that span, what you saw was a Trojan team that was, at best, even with the Sun Devils, despite the opponents’ 3-for-21 clip from beyond the arc. That just won’t get it done, and it’s an extension of what we’ve seen all season against (allegedly) inferior opponents.
Sam Reno: Sure, by nature of the rest of the Pac-12, much of our read on the Trojans is based on how they’ve fared against inferior competition. So let’s take a look.
All but two of USC’s conference wins have been by double digits, with the exceptions being their two most recent victories over Cal and ASU. That would be a Cal team that UCLA only beat by eight back in January and an ASU team that Arizona only took care of by nine points just last week.
UCLA and Arizona — both mentioned above as “the better teams in the Pac-12″ — had similar struggles against the exact same inferior opposition as USC, yet no one bats an eye when they land in the AP top 10 week after week. No one questions if they are “for real.”
Of course they don’t, and they shouldn’t do the same with USC for the same reasons. Asking a team to go win 19 of 22 games is hard enough. Demanding they come away with 19 blowouts is a damn near impossible task over the course of a long season.
The schedule up until this Saturday afternoon in Tucson was never going to be incredibly tough, and eventually this USC team was going to start playing down to it.
Sluggish showings against mid-to-low level Pac-12 teams do not mean the Trojans won’t get up for Arizona or UCLA in the same way, just like it didn’t mean those schools weren’t ready for their games against Villanova, Illinois, Marquette or each other.
More importantly for USC, their lightning rod is playing his best basketball of the season ahead of the Trojans’ most important games of the year.
Boogie Ellis has scored 21 points in back-to-back games, and he added six rebounds and three assists in Thursday night’s win over ASU. Last Saturday against Cal, he got his 21 on 8-for-10 from the field.
Whether it’s a rebound, the right pass, a late free throw, an on-ball defensive stop or a bucket of his own, Ellis simply makes winning plays when it matters most.
In the AAC semifinals last season with Memphis, Ellis put up 27 points in a two point loss to No. 7 Houston. In the NIT Championship against Mississippi State, he scored 25 with five assists and four rebounds to lead the Tigers to the title.
USC’s next two games against Arizona and UCLA are undoubtedly the two biggest of Ellis’ Trojan career. If both history and recent performance are any indication, he’ll be ready for them, and so will the Trojans.
“Winner Stays” runs Fridays.