Welcome back to Simonds’ Scouting Report! On Mondays throughout the summer, I am previewing each of USC football’s opponents for this upcoming season. This week, I’ll analyze the Stanford Cardinal, who will travel to the Coliseum to face the Trojans on Sept. 11.
2020 Recap
After consecutive losses against Oregon and Colorado to open its shortened 2020 season, Stanford recovered to win its last four games, albeit by a combined 10 points. Quarterback Davis Mills had a solid year — averaging just over 300 passing yards per game and 7.7 yards per attempt — before being drafted in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans. The Cardinal rushing attack wasn’t particularly efficient, though junior Austin Jones will have a chance to improve this season as Stanford’s lead running back after nine rushing touchdowns and 700 total yards from scrimmage in 2020.
On the other hand, Stanford’s defense struggled mightily last season, allowing at least 23 points in each of its six games. Head coach David Shaw has been one of the most consistent coaches in the sport over the last decade, including eight straight winning seasons between 2011 and 2018. This consistent success was largely due to the strength of his defense, which consistently ranked in the top 20 in the nation in points and yards allowed per game. However, the Cardinal just could not figure out how to stop the run in 2020, surrendering an abysmal 222 yards per game on the ground.
Offense
With Mills now in the NFL, Stanford will need a new signal-caller to step up, and senior Jack West and sophomore Tanner McKee seem to be the two most likely options. West has been unspectacular in two career starts, so I would give the edge in the quarterback competition to McKee, a highly ranked recruit out of high school.
The Cardinal also lost leading receiver Simi Fehoko to another Texas NFL team, this time the Dallas Cowboys, in the fifth round. Seniors Michael Wilson and Brycen Tremayne lead a solid group of returning receivers, though; Wilson provides consistency from the slot while Tremayne can stretch the field, which could test USC defensive coordinator Todd Orlando’s unit.
Jones and sophomore Nathaniel Peat will carry the load in a Cardinal backfield that will likely become the focal point for this offense. Shaw is known for controlling the clock and establishing the run, as well as producing high-level backs such as Christian McCaffrey and Bryce Love. I expect to see Jones and Peat get a lot of carries this upcoming season after Stanford relied more on its passing game in 2020. The Trojans were solid against the run last year, but question marks at defensive tackle and inside linebacker could provide opportunities for the Cardinal rushing attack.
On the offensive line, Stanford will greatly miss the presence of center Drew Dalman, who was named to All-Pac-12 teams in 2019 and 2020 before being drafted in April. Still, the Cardinal have experience, especially on the left side of the line, which will be necessary against a fearsome USC pass rush.
Defense
As previously mentioned, Stanford was gashed by the run in 2020 – Oregon and UCLA ran for 269 and 291 yards, respectively, against the Cardinal. Senior nose tackle Dalyn Wade-Perry needs to stay healthy in order to improve the Cardinal’s production at the line of scrimmage, or else senior Texas transfer Keaontay Ingram could have a breakout game for the Trojans out of the backfield. Senior defensive end Thomas Booker made some impressive plays last season, but a lack of depth around him has hurt the production of a once formidable Stanford pass rush.
At linebacker, the Cardinal have been plagued by injuries, though they do have some NFL-caliber talent in seniors Gabe Reid and Ricky Miezan. After just nine sacks from the Stanford defense in 2020, these playmakers must get into the backfield and disrupt quarterback Kedon Slovis in order to limit the dynamic USC passing attack.
Stanford must also see improvement from its secondary in order to counter USC offensive coordinator Graham Harrell’s explosive Air Raid system. The Cardinal only had two interceptions last season, though they did not concede many yards through the air. However, this is mostly because opposing offenses merely chose to expose their aforementioned weaknesses against the run. So, I expect Slovis and his receivers to have success through the air against a Stanford secondary led by senior strong safety Kendall Williamson, who had 32 tackles in 2020.
Prediction
USC simply has more talent than Stanford going into the 2021 season, despite the Cardinal’s consistent production under Shaw. In order to have a chance for an upset at the Coliseum, Stanford must be very efficient running the ball and, conversely, prevent the Trojans from establishing a consistent offense on the ground. Even if Shaw succeeds in slowing the game down, the USC attack through the air could still overwhelm the Cardinal defense.
If they want to establish themselves as serious contenders in the Pac-12 and across the country, the Trojans should run away with this game at home. They have the more talented quarterback, more proven offensive weapons and more disruptive playmakers on defense. However, in its second game in 2020, USC almost lost to an inferior Arizona team, so head coach Clay Helton must make sure his team is prepared and focused for a well-coached Stanford squad.
USC 34 - Stanford 13