“Spitballing” is a column by Nathan Ackerman about Major League Baseball.
First and foremost, I would like to thank the USC men’s basketball team for bridging the unbearable gap between the last relevant March Madness game and Major League Baseball Opening Day. Heck, maybe the Trojans upset No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga and that gap is whittled to zero.
In any case, Opening Day is finally just two (2!) days away. It feels as though we’ve been waiting two years, even though I’m sure your favorite team managed to pack in a full season’s worth of heartbreak and agony despite 2020′s abbreviated schedule. Mine, the Phillies, packed in two. Shut up, Dodgers fans.
It’s time to peer into the crystal ball and make some predictions for how this long-awaited season will play out. Yes, the math for win-loss totals — 162 games for each team, a 2,430-2,430 record for the league — is correct. No, these predictions will not age well. Yes, you can attack me on Twitter. @NathanAckerman_, DMs are open.
Let’s get to it.
American League East
- New York Yankees — 99-63 (AL No. 1 seed)
- Toronto Blue Jays — 86-76 (AL Wild Card No. 2)
- Tampa Bay Rays — 82-80
- Boston Red Sox — 75-87
- Baltimore Orioles — 55-107
The Blue Jays made some nice additions this offseason, particularly in the form of George Springer and Marcus Semien. Teoscar Hernandez is criminally underrated, Bo Bichette is quickly turning into a star, Cavan Biggio’s swing is gorgeous and we have to see some improvement from 22-year-old Vladamir Guerrero Jr. (if his bonkers 1.247 Spring Training OPS is any indication, we will). That offense, paired with a not-all-that-bad pitching staff, should be able to win a few ballgames.
But this division is the Yankees’ to lose. Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and though the rotation after him is filled with question marks despite some upside, the lineup can absolutely mash. Aaron Judge is a potential MVP candidate. DJ LeMahieu actually was one last season. Giancarlo Stanton can be too, when he’s healthy.
Tampa Bay lost a ton of pitching in Blake Snell and Charlie Morton this offseason, but they always find a way to get something out of nothing, so they should be in the picture, especially if Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco have any say. Boston can hit, but not well enough to overcome a horrendous pitching staff. The Orioles are an abomination, outside of Trey Mancini.
The big question for the Yankees will be health, as always, but it would take a series of devastating injuries to stop them. Until that happens, they’re the top dog in the East.
American League Central
- Chicago White Sox — 94-68 (AL No. 2 seed)
- Minnesota Twins — 84-78
- Cleveland Indians — 83-79
- Kansas City Royals — 76-86
- Detroit Tigers — 68-94
Don’t get me wrong: Losing Eloy Jimenez is a huge blow for Chicago.
But the White Sox have one of the best lineups in baseball even without him, as Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada — oh, and reigning MVP Jose Abreu — will do plenty of damage. No, Abreu probably won’t repeat his .987 OPS from last year, but he doesn’t have to. Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn headline an excellent rotation to back the offense up, and it’s always fun having the best reliever in baseball in Liam Hendriks at the back end of the bullpen.
Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano will hit for Minnesota, but a starting rotation headlined by Kenta Maeda and Jose Berrios is underwhelming at best. Andrelton Simmons is a defensive black hole at shortstop, but I don’t see the Twins’ pitching holding up over the course of 162 games.
Cleveland is the Twins, but reversed: Its pitching, which features 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and plenty more talent, is a stark contrast to a lineup that wasn’t great last year and lost its best player in Francisco Lindor. Here’s betting Cleveland simply won’t hit enough to make much noise. Kansas City is better than people think after adding Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi, but the ceiling is only so high. The Tigers do have some young talent on the way, but they’re a couple years away from becoming relevant.
American League West
- Seattle Mariners — 88-74 (AL No. 3 seed)
- Los Angeles Angels — 87-75 (AL Wild Card No. 1)
- Oakland Athletics — 79-83
- Houston Astros — 78-84
- Texas Rangers — 65-97
Don’t close this article. Don’t throw your computer or mobile device into a pit of fire and alligators. Just hear me out.
In the spirit of March Madness, I’m going full Cinderella mode for the AL West. And looking further at the Mariners’ roster, it’s not that preposterous of a pick. The thing they had going for them the most last year — and they weren’t THAT bad, at 27-33 — was young talent: Kyle Lewis, the unanimous Rookie of the Year. Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield, who pitched to a 3.10 and 3.58 ERA, respectively. Then, Seattle added starter James Paxton, whose down year in the anomaly of 2020 was the only truly bad season of his career. The Mariners will also bring Jarred Kelenic up soon — much to Kevin Mather’s chagrin — they still have Kyle Seager, and they’ll get Mitch Haniger back after he missed the 2020 season. Seattle’s bullpen was the worst in the AL last season, and it was repaired with patchwork, so that will be a concern, but if it can produce just enough, the M’s might surprise some folks.
Now, look at the rest of the division. The Astros lost Springer, and the addition of Jake Odorizzi likely won’t make up for Justin Verlander’s absence. Plus, Houston will be walking into hell-holes every road game with fans now in the stands and angry as ever, which won’t help. The A’s, like the Rays, always seem to overperform, but losing Hendriks and Semien might be too much to overcome, especially with mediocre starting pitching.
If I’m right about Seattle, the Angels will be their biggest threat. But Raisel Iglesias and Jose Quintana aren’t enough to fix a perpetually bad pitching staff. On offense, Mike Trout will be Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon is elite and Shohei Ohtani feels poised for a huge year (actually, hitting and pitching), but beyond that… I’m not sold.
The Angels will sneak into the playoffs because of those three. But for the division? Call me crazy. I don’t care. Give me Seattle.
National League East
- Atlanta Braves — 93-69 (NL No. 2 seed)
- Philadelphia Phillies — 87-75 (NL Wild Card No. 2)
- New York Mets — 86-76
- Washington Nationals — 82-80
- Miami Marlins — 75-87
The NL East is stacked.
Every single team improved over the offseason, save for maybe the Marlins — who made the 2020 playoffs (granted, in an expanded field, but still).
The Braves, though, are still the beast of the east until someone tells them otherwise. They boast the strongest lineup, with defending NL MVP Freddie Freeman, young slugger Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies — the list goes on. Injuries to the starting rotation plagued Atlanta last year, but Max Fried, a full year of Ian Anderson, the addition of Charlie Morton and the eventual return of Mike Soroka have that staff loaded.
The Phillies have drawn plenty of criticism for running it back with the same team that missed the expanded playoffs last year, but that’s an oversimplification. The lineup and starting staff were good enough in 2020, but the second worst bullpen in baseball history kept the Phillies out of the playoffs by a single game. That bullpen looks much improved with Jose Alvarado, Archie Bradley and promising signs from the Phils’ returners. If the ‘pen can be average or even slightly below, the starting rotation with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and an emerging Zach Eflin plus an offense with Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm and JT Realmuto can get the Phillies back to the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
With the Mets, I’ll have to see it to believe it. Lindor, one of the best shortstops in baseball, is of course a huge addition, and Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and a bounceback Pete Alonso add to an excellent offense. But injuries remain a concern with the starting staff beyond Jacob deGrom, as Carlos Carrasco tore his hamstring earlier this month, Noah Syndergaard might not be back until June and who knows how Marcus Stroman will return after missing all of 2020 with a torn calf? The Mets just have too many question marks and, of course, the Mets are always gonna Met.
Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin will anchor Washington’s starting staff, but beyond Juan Soto and Trea Turner, the Nats’ offense isn’t expected to wow anyone. And finally, Miami has plenty of talented young pitching but lacks the offensive firepower to make a serious run.
National League Central
- St. Louis Cardinals — 88-74 (NL No. 3 seed)
- Chicago Cubs — 85-77
- Milwaukee Brewers — 85-77
- Cincinnati Reds — 77-85
- Pittsburgh Pirates — 54-108
Does anyone really have to win the NL Central? It is by far the weakest division in baseball. But the cream of the crap is St. Louis, which made itself division frontrunners with the act of highway robbery that landed it Arenado AND cash for basically nothing. Arenado will headline a lineup that also features the ever-consistent Paul Goldschmidt; coupled with a rotation fronted by a bounceback candidate in Jack Flaherty, the Cardinals should be able to just get the job done.
A slight caveat: If the Cubs feel compelled to try to compete at this year’s trade deadline, I’ll take the Cubs to win the Central. Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are sure to bounce back, Joc Pederson looks amazing in Spring Training, Anthony Rizzo is always reliable and Willson Contreras is one of the best catchers in baseball. They could carry an underwhelming but potentially OK starting pitching staff if Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies and Alec Mills perform. The problem: I don’t see the Cubs feeling so compelled. The Darvish trade was a sign of that, and don’t be shocked if Bryant winds up elsewhere by the end of July.
Milwaukee could impress after signing Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr., and Christian Yelich should bounce back to his pre-2020 ways to complement a strong bullpen and potentially good starting staff. As for Cincinnati, Bauer is obviously a big loss, but Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray are both back after impressive 2020 seasons. Nicholas Castellanos should bounce back from a .784 OPS in 2020, as should Eugenio Suarez from .781. Beyond them, though, the lineup isn’t exactly formidable. Ke’Bryan Hayes is the only bright spot for Pittsburgh, which went 19-41 last season before trading Musgrove and Josh Bell.
National League West
- Los Angeles Dodgers — 106-56 (NL No. 1 seed)
- San Diego Padres — 96-66 (NL Wild Card No. 1)
- Arizona Diamondbacks — 75-87
- San Francisco Giants — 73-89
- Colorado Rockies — 69-93
The Dodgers are really freaking good.
They are, of course, the defending World Series champions, and they only got better in the offseason by adding NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer (though he’ll never have another season as good as last). Their lineup was the best in baseball, and Cody Bellinger underperformed. The bullpen might be the biggest hole on the team, but we’re splitting hairs here, and with the Dodgers’ farm system and willingness to spend, they’ll patch any apparent holes real quick mid-season. The only reason they won’t win 110 games is that they won’t have to.
San Diego actually improved more than the Dodgers this offseason, by adding Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove to the rotation and Ha-Seong Kim to a lineup led by $340 million man Fernando Tatis Jr. But the Padres are a team with a bunch of players who haven’t played together before, and we’ve seen how teams like that work: They stumble out of the gate. For the Padres, this might look more like hovering at or a few games over .500 a month or so into the season before taking off, but that’s all the Dodgers will need, and they’ll win the division relatively comfortably.
As for Arizona, San Francisco and Colorado, all I have to say is “meh.” Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Kole Calhoun headline Arizona’s lineup, which says enough. Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Belt are solid pieces for San Francisco, which has no pitching. Beyond Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon, Colorado doesn’t have much going for it after the putrid Nolan Arenado trade.
Of course, these predictions will all look like trash by about the middle of May, but who cares? Baseball is back. And I cannot wait.
“Spitballing” runs every Tuesday.