The USC Trojans (9-3) take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) on Monday in the 103rd Rose Bowl Game. It's a seemingly perfect narrative.
Two traditional college football powerhouses. Two teams that righted the ship after getting off to a rocky start. Two inexperienced but explosive quarterbacks. Two dynamic sophomore running backs. Two teams looking to win the Granddaddy of Them All.
The Game
Date: Monday, January 2
Time: 2 p.m. PST
Location: The Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
TV: ESPN
Line: USC -6.5
The Teams
USC
By now, you are probably familiar with USC.
Sam Darnold, Ronald Jones II, and JuJu Smith-Schuster lead an offense averaging over 37 points per game since Darnold took over at quarterback. While it's been an off year by Smith-Schuster's standards, he's still leading the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. After a slow start, Jones has been incredible over the second half of the season on the ground and has now cracked 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns.
The USC defense is led by All-American cornerback Adoree Jackson, linebackers Michael Hutchings and Cam Smith, and the all-important transfer from Utah, defensive lineman Stevie Tu'ikolovatu. After the disastrous start against Alabama, the USC defense has only allowed 19 points per game, which would have been good for second in the Pac-12 and 14th in the entire country.
USC's special teams have been a lot more special than last season. Everyone knows about Adoree' Jackson, but it's the kicking game that has taken a massive step forward thanks to the John #BaxterEffect. Of USC's 46 punts this season, only seven have been returned for a total of 32 yards. Plus, the Trojans lead the Pac-12 in kickoff coverage as 40 of Matt Boermeester's 77 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, compared to only 11 last season.
Penn State
Offense
Much like USC, this offense has an absolute monster at tailback, and a dynamic quarterback in front of him. The Nittany Lions are one of only 18 teams in all of college football to have a 3,000-yard passer and a 1,000-yard rusher.
With one of the most talented running back classes ever coming out of school this year, led by Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, etc., the younger Saquon Barkley has somehow gone under the radar. As much as 1,649 total yards and 19 total touchdowns can go under the radar, that is.
At 5'11" and 223 pounds, Barkley is built like a tank. He's a complete back with an incredible mix of power, elusiveness, and big-play ability.
Barkley is the complete package as a running back and will most likely be the first running back taken in the 2018 NFL Draft. I'd expect him to be a Heisman finalist next year as well. The guy can do it all.
With a running back like Barkley, it's no surprise quarterback Trace McSorley has had the success that he has. But McSorley has plenty of tools in his box as well; he's not just riding on the coattails of a strong running game. The redshirt sophomore lit up a good Wisconsin defense in the Big 10 title game to the tune of 384 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. The guy can ball. He actually has a lot of similarities to Sam Darnold in his ability to extend plays with his legs to both run and pass.
Both of these plays are great examples of how McSorley is able to be creative in his pocket movement while still keeping his eyes downfield. While the second throw isn't actually the best throw or decision, it shows his arm strength and willingness to give his receivers a chance. He is going to take some deep shots throughout the game so it will be up to Adoree' Jackson and the USC defensive backs to go up and make big plays in those situations.
Additionally, McSorley does an excellent job at leaving the pocket to both his left and right, so both Porter Gustin and Uchenna Nwosu will be key in containing the dynamic quarterback. The two have had excellent seasons as the two leading tacklers for loss on the USC defense, with 12 and 7.5 respectively, but they'll need to continue the stellar play in order to contain McSorley.
Penn State runs a ton of run-pass option plays, allowing McSorley to make the decision to either hand it off to Barkley or pull it back and fire it out to a receiver. Head coach James Franklin has a ton of trust in McSorley to make those decisions and to push the ball down the field, so it will be imperative for the USC defense to maintain eye discipline and not be distracted by all of the motion on Penn State's offense
In terms of guys catching the ball from McSorley, it will come down to a pair of juniors. Wide receiver Chris Godwin and tight end Mike Gesicki have combined for 47% of the team's receptions, 43% of the team's receiving yards and 52% of the team's receiving touchdowns. They will be featured heavily in the passing game, especially after the news that Penn State receiver Saeed Blacknall, along with linebacker Manny Bowen, have been suspended from the game because of a violation of team rules.
Godwin is a big body who isn't particularly fast or an exceptionally clean route runner but he has strong hands and can make plays on the ball. For a team's number one receiver, he spends close to an equal amount of time on both the left and right side of Penn State's formations. I would not expect Adoree' Jackson to "shadow" Godwin, so both Jackson and Iman Marshall will have opportunities to defend him. Marshall's more physical style might match up better against the big-bodied receiver, but Jackson has an immense speed advantage so he shouldn't have much trouble either.
Gesicki is a game breaker for the Nittany Lions. While he isn't a speedster by any means, his 6'6″ frame and 252-pound body make him tough to defend. That's real NFL size for a guy who will at the very least be on a roster at the next level. Leon McQuay will have his work cut out for him here, and it will be interesting to see how USC as a whole defends him.
Defense
Penn State's defense has been a bit of an enigma this season. After allowing 28 first-half points to Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game, the Nittany Lions only allowed three in the second half. While Michigan State and Rutgers are hardly offensive juggernauts, Penn State didn't allow a touchdown to them in its final two regular season games.
But that same Penn State defense let up 31 points to Indiana, 49 points to Michigan and 42 points to Pittsburgh.
Perhaps the most important defensive performance to look at is their domination of the Ohio State offense. The Buckeyes were held to only 21 points, less than half of their season average. The Nittany Lions held them in check in all facets of the game, limiting them to only 168 yards rushing, well below their season average of over 300.
They were also able to pressure Buckeye quarterback J.T. Barrett on 44% of his dropbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Info, the second highest rate in his career. While there have absolutely been holes in the Penn State defense, they've also come up huge when needed most.
Impact Players
Penn State's defense is led by a pair of junior safeties in Marcus Allen and Malik Golden. The two are first and fourth on the team respectively in tackles, and play all over the field. Both have the ability to play free safety in the middle of the field as well as the ability to come into the box and make plays against the run. The two are occasionally exposed on play-action fakes so expect to see a few deep shots off play-action for USC, especially if they can get the running game going early.
Penn State plays a lot of Cover-2, which means "corner" routes to the outside is often where to attack. Allen is a tackling machine, but he can get beat in the passing game to the outside.
While these are both examples from the 2015 season, they illustrate how Allen is often just a split second too late on routes to the outside. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers like to attack this area of the field and I'd expect them to target Allen in coverage.
At the linebacker position, the Nittany Lions are led by senior Brandon Bell and junior Jason Cabinda. Bell is a much improved player from his junior season and was second on the team in tackles this season despite missing four games with injury. He was named Big 10 Defensive Player of the Week for his 18-tackle performance against Ohio State. Cabinda missed several games as well, but still was named to the All-Conference Third Team by the coaches.
On the defensive line, Penn State is led by Garett Sickles and Evan Schwan. The two had high expectations coming into the year as starters after the Nittany Lions had lost several players to the NFL, but ultimately disappointed. That being said, they still were the top-two on the team in both tackles for loss and sacks. While the two are talented, the USC offensive line should be able to win this matchup in both the run game and pass protection.
Penn State doesn't have anyone who resembles Adoree' Jackson in the return game. At all. The Nittany Lions have not scored on special teams all season. However, kicker Tyler Davis is one of the best in the country. He has not tried a kicker of 50-yards of greater this season, but he is 22 of 24, good for the eighth best percentage in college football.
The Outcome?
This is a de facto home game for USC, as it's played just a few miles up the 110 Freeway. Assuming the Trojan offense hasn't lost rhythm from all the time off, they should be able to score with ease against Penn State. Stopping the Nittany Lions on the other hand could be a challenge. I'd expect USC to stack the box to try and slow down Barkley, meaning Adoree' Jackson and Iman Marshall could be in single coverage for large portions of the game.
If Trace McSorley can find some weak spots over the top of the defense, it could end up being a shootout. But it hasn't exactly been smart to attack Jackson down the field this season. Just ask Jake Browning.
This game should be pretty high-scoring, but I think USC's defense will come up with enough stops to get the win.
Prediction: USC 34, Penn State 26
Annenberg Media