“A question I always hear is ‘When is Arizona going to change?’” said Araceli Villezcas, program coordinator for One Arizona, a non-partisan coalition of 28 organizations whose focus is driving the Latinx voter turnout.
The answer might be Nov. 3, 2020.
Because of their increasing presence in the state and politics, some have referred to Latinx voters as the “sleeping giant:” A voting bloc that, once awakened, has the power to change the political landscape of Arizona. Thomas Volgy, a professor of political science at the University of Arizona, said Latinx voters are one of the most critical groups to target for this year’s election.
Democrats have sought to awaken this “giant” to be able to flip the state, with concerted outreach efforts at all levels of government, but especially in the competitive presidential and senatorial races.
“What would happen if that sleeping giant woke up, and we actually went to the polls and arose?” asked Bill de la Rosa, an immigration activist and scholar and Biden surrogate. “We would receive better representation and we would actually have lawmakers that are attentive and listening and that are held accountable to the issues that we want to see on the table.”
Arizona, long regarded as a solid Republican-leaning state, is considered a swing state in the 2020 presidential election. A Democrat hasn’t won the state since Bill Clinton in 1996 — before that, it’d been nearly 50 years since Arizona voted blue. With polls indicating a close toss-up between Biden and Trump, Democrats now have a golden opportunity to win the state’s 11 electoral votes, which may be crucial to win the electoral college.
Demographics are changing noticeably in Arizona. The state is becoming more diverse, as the share of white residents as a part of the overall population has steadily decreased, Census data shows.
Latinx voters have been a part of this change, increasing from a quarter of the population to almost a third in the past two decades, according to Census data. This group also makes up nearly a quarter of eligible voters in Arizona, according to Pew Research.
Though President Trump carried the Grand Canyon State in 2016, his victory margin, 3.5 points, was lower than the three previous Republican candidates.
Democrats not only have the chance to flip the state’s presidential vote, but take one of its senators, as well. If Mark Kelly wins Republican Martha McSally’s seat, it would be the first time two Democrats have occupied both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats since 1953.
For some, Arizona’s change from Red state to swing state is not a surprise.
“This has been happening for quite some time,” Volgy said. “What has changed is that for the first time the two political parties have recognized this and are pouring resources into the state.”
Monica Ruiz, a lifelong Arizona resident, was also not surprised by the state’s status, citing its increasing diversity. Ruiz, who works in education, said one difference she’s noticed is that this election is much more divisive than previous, especially for minorities.
“I don’t want my students, I don’t want my son, even my future grandkids, to grow up in a racially charged society,” Ruize said.
Voter registration has also played a large role in Arizona shifting from red to purple. Voter registration has more than doubled in Arizona in the past two decades, now at 4.2 million voters.
Part of this increase is due to grassroots organizations faithfully registering voters year after year, like Villezcas' One Arizona. When the organization was first formed in 2010, it had a goal of registering 12,000 Latino voters. In 2020, the group has registered 185,000 Arizonans.
Not only are more voters registering, but they want to be more involved, according to Villezcas.
“I think it does have to do with the fact that organizations like One Arizona and our partners have been doing this work on the ground consistently every single year,” she said, “versus other groups that maybe they only pop up during a huge election cycle.”
Now that those voters are registered, One Arizona has been working to make sure they make their voices heard. Vianey De Anda, Civic Engagement Communications Director for one of the organization’s partners, said they have been trying to provide voters the resources necessary to vote, including polling information, what kind of I.D. to bring and who to contact in case of an issue.
De Anda said canvassers have knocked on over 63,000 doors to ensure voters are turning in their ballots or have a plan for election day. She said she’s heard stories of canvassers walking ballots to the voter’s mailbox just a few steps away.
“If that’s what it takes, that’s what it takes,” De Anda said.
As voter registration has increased, Republican advantages in the state have diminished. In 2000, close to half of all registered voters in the state were GOP members. In 2020, Republicans make up a little more than a third of voters, with Democrats and “other” voters nearly equally making up the other two-thirds, voter registration data shows.
North Carolina, another battleground state for 2020, also has a third of its voters not registered with a party. Other key states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, however, don’t have nearly as many of these types of voters, with this group making up about a quarter and a tenth of each state’s total registered voters, respectively.
Volgy described the politics in Arizona as similar to that of the nation: heavily divided, with independents trying to navigate through the divisiveness. However, he said these no party preference voters play a significant role, often deciding most statewide elections.
De la Rosa said that from the beginning of the former-Vice President’s run, there has been a concerted effort to reach independent and moderate voters. The campaign has used Republican surrogates to reach these voters, like Cindy McCain, the wife of the late Arizona Senator John McCain.
Oscar De las salas, who serves on the council of Latinos for Biden, described Hispanic voters as often being the “other option” when it comes to Arizona politics.
“Hispanics have always been in the back of the room, not because they want to, just because there hasn’t been an open opportunity for Hispanics,” De las salas said.
De la Rosa said the Latinx vote is often overlooked in Arizona by politicians and political organizations. Because the state is competitive in this year’s election, these groups are becoming more attentive to the issues their communities care about, he said.
Ruiz, who early voted for Biden, does not believe Latinx voters have necessarily been ignored in previous elections. She said there has always been a concentrated effort to reach Latinx voters.
“It just depends on whether you choose to acknowledge it or pay attention,” she said. "I think that’s where the problem is: As Latinos, we don’t pay attention.
De la Rosa said some of the key issues for these voters are education, immigration, public health and the economy.
Religion also plays an important role in the lives of many Latinx voters. De la Rosa said Biden and the campaign have been highlighting Biden’s Catholicism, saying that he not only talks about religion, but practices it. However, this message does not resonate with every Latinx voter.
Giselle Aguiar, a Latina Trump supporter from Phoenix, questioned how Biden could be a practicing Catholic when he supports abortion.
Aguiar was born in Puerto Rico, grew up in New York and lived in Florida for some time before moving to Arizona about 16 years ago. She used to be a self-described “diehard Democrat,” but switched parties when she became a Christian.
“My worldview changed to a Biblical worldview and that’s why I can’t vote ever again for a Democratic,” Aguiar said.
Monica Evans Pena, a Latina voter from Peru who has lived in Maricopa for 15 years, described herself as a “Christ follower.”
“The fact that I trust on who Christ is and who God is has an impact on how I vote,” Evans Pena said.
While Evans Pena is engaged with politics, it has taken a backseat for her in recent years. While attending college, she said she used to attend political marches and rallies, but as she has grown older, Evans Pena said she has lost faith in politicians making changes for the betterment of all people.
“It sounds bad, but in reality, we humans have the tendency to be all about me,” Evans Pena said. “And even when it’s a party, it’s all about the party.”
When voting, De las salas focuses more on the individual than the party. Although he supports Biden, he said he has voted for Republicans in the past, though not on the presidential or senatorial levels.
“In reality, my vote doesn’t have a party,” he said. “I vote for the profile of the person who is going to represent me and represent the community with the best assets of that person for us.”
De las salas explained that he doesn’t feel represented by the current president and the Republican party.
Ruiz said this election is important to her, and should be just as important to other Latinx voters, because of the racial tensions that come with the current president.
“Our opinion matters,” Ruiz said. “We do amazing things out there in the world that other people will never do. And so what we say, what we do and how we vote for should matter, as well.”
As a DACA recipient, De Anda is unable to vote, but that hasn’t stopped her from making sure other Latinx voters do.
“I do this work because this is my home. This is my community,” De Anda said. “I want to make sure that those who do have the power to vote are able to exercise it.”
De la Rosa feels optimistic that Biden will win the election, though “two, three weeks ago, I think I would [have said] I’m cautiously optimistic,” he said. Some of the Biden campaign’s last-ditch efforts to win the state, he said, include bringing high-profile surrogates who resonate with the Latinx community, including Alicia Keys, George Lopez and chef Jose Andres.
“If state representatives can show Latinos also why their investment matters, I think Arizona can follow the path of California and become a Democratic stronghold,” de la Rosa predicted.
However, de la Rosa also warned against taking Latinx voters for granted. Even though demographics are currently playing in the favor of Democrats, he said if the party ceases to reach Latinx voters, they may not vote, or even vote Republican instead.
According to CNN exit polls, nearly a third of Latinx voters in Arizona chose Trump in 2016. However, this figure is debated, as other groups suggest he drew as low as 12% of the Latinx vote.
It’s possible the country will know how Arizona voted on election night, but full results may not be available until later in the week. De la Rosa expects Latinx voters to play an important role in what the eventual results are.
“When you talk about the power of Latinos, I think you’re going to see it on full display this election,” he said.